538: Any Trump Momentum Has Now Stalled

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight:

About a dozen national and state polls were released on Sunday and early today. The data was noisy, with some surveys showing that Hillary Clinton had gained ground and others finding that Donald Trump had. But the overall race remains basically unchanged. Clinton has a 71 percent chance of winning according to our polls-only model and a 69 percent chance according to polls-plus. Both those numbers are up about 1 percentage point from Saturday.

Unchanged is good news for Clinton, whose lead had been shrinking for a couple of weeks. Over the past several days, Trump’s momentum has stalled. We don’t yet know whether Clinton has stopped Trump’s gains for good or if this is simply a brief respite. So let’s take this moment to zoom out and look at the broad trajectory of the race.

First, here’s Clinton’s chance of winning the election over the past four weeks:



Clinton’s chances peaked in early and mid-August, at 89 percent in polls-only and 80 percent in polls-plus (her polls-plus peak came on Aug. 8). From there, her odds steadily fell, bottoming out at 67 percent and 66 percent a couple of days after Labor Day. Since then, her chances have rebounded slightly.

[Loki Liesmith]

1. caveat

we have no idea what effect weekend news has had. I'm guessing minimal effect (1-2 point decline, temporary).

[democrattotheend]

2. None of this captures the pneumonia or the deplorables comment

We'll have to see if those things have any impact on the polls.

[vadermike]

3. Hope

Weekend news is temporary or no effect Hard to say What do I guys think ? I've heard more people hyper ventilating about this omg we lost now etc and a lot saying no worries I am not as worried as some I mean shit people get sick She soldiers thru it which alotbofvtimes people do Going to work sick etc

[vadermike]

4. So

She automatically loses to trump because she got sick and had a gaffe which really wasn't a gaffe , he does have supporters that are like that a lot of them Well I hope the USA loves them some fascism our country may not survive it

[Wounded Bear]

5. Trump seems to have a ceiling of around 40%...

which is about what Repub approval in general is. His recent "outreach" attempts have fallen flat, IMHO. He's still not getting much of the centrist votes.

Same as it has been for the whole election cycle, Clinton fluctuates a bit up and down, while Trump runs flat in the 30's.

[vadermike]

6. The question

Is will trump gain points from the Hillary being sick andcdeplorables or will her support drop but he won't gain thus opening up support for third parties this still possibly allowing him to squeak by ?

[SCliberal91294]

8. 1-2 points short term

Even Scarborough said people will forget next week. I don't think a single soul out there can go from supporting clinton to trump or vice versa. It may be good that the pneumonia news could cover it up?

[vadermike]

9. Really Joe scar

Said that wowza I'm beginning to think he doesn't want trumpie to win I will say however there will be more ticket splitting in this election HRC may be first president in a long time to face a totally Red congress We are on track right now for 3-4 seats In senate NH is slipping But if we GOTV hard enough maybe we get NC instead ? Or something like that

[triron]

7. 538

is pretty conservative. Sam Wang has HRC's bayesian probability at 90% which is a 5 points below her max.

[Gothmog]

10. I love Nate Silver and 538