remember the convention "bounce" that went up but never came down?

[unblock]

hillary gained quite a few points from the convention, then instead of the normal pattern of all or nearly all of the "bounce" vanishing in the following week or so, trump stepped in with a series of self-inflicted wounds and hillary's convention bounce numbers never dropped back down.

well, think of it this way. hillary finally lost the convention bounce that was always expected.

that's it. there is no dangerous long-term trend, trump will not be able to close the gap much further if at all. it's not something to panic about. taking the long view, hillary's lead has long be pretty stable. only the margin of victory has varied.

obviously, we can't take our eye off the ball, but i'm still confident.

she's got this.

[Iliyah]

1. HRC is still in good shape in the nationals and electoral

but alas corporate media (lying media) is at again. Every four years in recent times they spew lies and bullshit.

HRC is ahead and yes, she's got this.

[bluestateguy]

2. Bounces always fade

Even in 1992, Bill Clinton came out of New York with a 28 pt. lead (coincided with the Perot dropout). That was in July. He won in November by 6.

[geek tragedy]

3. The problem we're seeing is that Clinton

has been unable to draw positive attention to herself.

Trump is entirely driving the public duscussion, good and bad, about himself.

The convention was effective as a media event. But she doesn't get any more of those.

Right now she's invisible unless she's making bad news. Her campaign needs to get its act together.

[oswaldactedalone]

5. Her TV ads

need to be more hard hitting. I finally saw a decent ad yesterday, the one where republicans are pointing out the horror show that is Trump and ends with he's even too dangerous for republicans.
Trump has set the table for great ads, time for the Clinton campaign to capitalize on it.

[geek tragedy]

8. tv ads are completely worthless in a presidential race. Complete waste of money.

People just tune them out.

Clinton massively outspent Trump in television advertising, and she's in a worse position than she was before.

Trump had a massive amount of television advertising dumped on him in the primary.

Bernie Sanders outspent Clinton on television advertising.

The ability to win free media is much more important.

[Cosmocat]

11. OF FOR FUCKS SAKE

She does PLENTY of "good" things/events.

The problem if the filter between that and the morons in this country.

The media has a frame with her and that frame dictates 99% of what it allows through.

Her campaign has been very strong. And outside of a few gaffes she has been pretty solid.

The issue here is first and foremost the rampant stupidity of this country - witness 45% or of this country getting ready to vote for DONALD TRUMP as POTUS.

The second most primary issue is the media which always, ALWAYS frames democrats negatively.

[geek tragedy]

13. she needs to figure out a way to break through that media filter.

simple as that.

[LiberalLoner]

4. I hate going to 538 lately. Every hour, it seems,

The numbers get worse and worse. God I hope it doesn't continue like this much longer.

[oasis]

6. "She's got this". Agreed.

The first debate will secure her the lead and the election.

[bigtree]

7. I think she lost a little bit in the past few weeks

...but Trump hasn't gained anything significant, at the same time.

[Wounded Bear]

9. Trump has a ceiling...

I think he has pretty much reached it. The dip in Clinton's lead reflects the bad press she's been receiving much more than it has to do with Trump "gaining" anything. He's still polling in the high 30's very low 40's.

[RonniePudding]

10. It shouldn't even be this close

That it is speaks to the darkness of the moment, which from my view makes 911 and Pearl Harbor look like afternoon tea at the Ritz.

We may be on the cusp of the darkest moment in US history, folks.

But I still don't think he's going to win.

[Cosmocat]

12. Darn straight

45% or so of this country is going to vote for Donald Trump.

Donald fucking Trump, for POTUS.