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5 reasons Trump might fall in autumn
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And there are warning signs aplenty for a candidate whose trajectory has improved only by his capacity to drag his opponent down to his own level of septic-tank unpopularity. And Trump’s early fall “surge” could be quickly reversed as he descends ever deeper into the darkening swamp of national self-hatred this rotten, hope-free, soul-sucking 2016 campaign for president has turned out to be.
1. Everything has gone Trump’s way — and he’s still not ahead. If 2012 was all about the 47 percent, this year — at least for Trump — is defined by the 44 percent. In poll after poll after poll — during the good times and bad, the most disliked politician in the country can never rise (with a few outliers) beyond the 38 to 44 percent range among likely voters (he typically tops out at 42 among registered voters). In a normal year, numbers such as these are in a statistical range political consultants like to call “the Killing Field.”
-snip-
3. Trump is getting cocky again. Trump’s steely messaging team has done a great job duct-taping the boss’s maw since taking over in mid-August. But Trump’s mouth, like LeBron James, is a cosmic force that can merely be contained for limited periods, and never truly shut down — and Trump’s recent success has rekindled the suppressed I-gotta-be-me impulse.
-snip-
4. Terrified Democrats are Clinton’s secret weapon. This is the big one, the factor upon which the election truly hinges. Raw, small-mammal fear. Trump’s success might be the only thing that gets many Democrats (or anti-Trump moderates outside the party) to hold their noses and vote Hillary.
And there are warning signs aplenty for a candidate whose trajectory has improved only by his capacity to drag his opponent down to his own level of septic-tank unpopularity. And Trump’s early fall “surge” could be quickly reversed as he descends ever deeper into the darkening swamp of national self-hatred this rotten, hope-free, soul-sucking 2016 campaign for president has turned out to be.
1. Everything has gone Trump’s way — and he’s still not ahead. If 2012 was all about the 47 percent, this year — at least for Trump — is defined by the 44 percent. In poll after poll after poll — during the good times and bad, the most disliked politician in the country can never rise (with a few outliers) beyond the 38 to 44 percent range among likely voters (he typically tops out at 42 among registered voters). In a normal year, numbers such as these are in a statistical range political consultants like to call “the Killing Field.”
-snip-
3. Trump is getting cocky again. Trump’s steely messaging team has done a great job duct-taping the boss’s maw since taking over in mid-August. But Trump’s mouth, like LeBron James, is a cosmic force that can merely be contained for limited periods, and never truly shut down — and Trump’s recent success has rekindled the suppressed I-gotta-be-me impulse.
-snip-
4. Terrified Democrats are Clinton’s secret weapon. This is the big one, the factor upon which the election truly hinges. Raw, small-mammal fear. Trump’s success might be the only thing that gets many Democrats (or anti-Trump moderates outside the party) to hold their noses and vote Hillary.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/is-donald-trump-surge-real-228228
