Ohio poll(s) analysis

[MyNameIsKhan]

Lets analyze Ohio Polls

CNN Poll 09/14
Trump 46, Clinton 41, Johnson 8, Stein 2
Bloomberg Poll 09/14
Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 10, Stein 3


Ohio Vote count
================
2000
Bush 2,351,209 Gore 2,186,190

2004
Bush 2,858,727 Kerry 2,739,952

2008
Obama 2,940,044 McCain 2,677,820

2012
Obama 2,827,621 Romney 2,661,407

Population change between 2010 -> 2015 = 0.7% ( Almost 80% of this is African American, Hispanic and Asians, this favor Dems)

What Pollsters are saying?
=================
The high point of last 12 years of election is Obama 2008 2,940,044 votes so that is with high probability maximum any candidate can shoot for in 2016, there are not any more votes. In 2004 election Bush got many AA and Latino votes and that is why he got upto 2.85Mil. As demographic changes are minimal, Trump is getting about 45% (avg) votes or 2.61 Mil votes similar to what Romney got and either Johnson and Stein took 11.5% (avg) votes from Clinton or some of her supporters moved to Trump and he lost some as well.

Which in other words, 5 point loss makes Clinton fetching 2.47 Mil votes which are close to 370k votes less than 2012 Obama count.

Where are Consistent Dem Vote banks in Ohio
===========================================
Cuyahoga, Franklin, Lucas, Montgomery, Summit, Hamilton - 1.5 Mil votes, this is solid based on past 12 years
Rest dem favoring counties where we won in 2004, 2008, 2012 - 400k votes, this is solid

How do we account 370k votes?
=============================
1. Enthusiasm Gap 10% 280k votes ( 10% of Dem voters are sitting out, Really? )
2. Defection to Johnson and Stein 90k votes ( 3% of Dem voters are voting third party )

Even in 2004 Dems managed to get 2.73 Mil votes and Hilary will get 300k less votes in comparison, Really?

Something is not right here, I dare to say Ohio is EVEN 45% right now with slight favor for Hilary. This will finally very much look like Obama 2012.

[a kennedy]

1. If they vote.....the African Americans, the Hispanics, and the Asians.

If they DO vote, then it's in the bag for Hillary......if they don't it could be a tRump presidency with the complement of a repuke house AND repuke senate. We have got to GOTV. Or, well, I don't even want to think about the consequences.

[MyNameIsKhan]

2. They have consistently voted past 12 years

There is no reason to say they will not vote this time.

Ann Selzer said this is looking like 2004, even in that year Kerry got 2.73 Million votes which will be sufficient to defeat Rump. I just donot see the kind of defections Pollsters are predicting.

[kcjohn1]

3. No one knows voter turnout until after the elections

You can only estimate on what people tell you.

'08 you had very high turnout 57%. '12 it was down to 54% (Obama lost 100K voters from '08). '04 was actually moderately high turnout and higher than '12. Clinton can only lose another 150K before losing to Trump.

There is no reason to believe '16 will look like '12 or '08. This will be low turnout election solely because both candidates are not well liked, and its not going to be negative election. If anything logic states turnout model is not in the favor of the Dems this cycle. The motivated base is with the GOP.

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. I agree but what analysis says

Clinton can loose 150k votes to 2012 and still win ... There is no way turnout will exceed 57% even with motivated republicans. There is part of population that is just not interested.

The current predictions are saying dems loosing 13% of there vote bank versus 2012, I donot see that happening, there is enough excitement to carry the election though will be tight.

[uponit7771]

21. +1, HRC is accepted by 92% of dems... very little chance more than 10% will sit home in Nov

[bettyellen]

6. ..... "not well liked by men". FTFY

[Botany]

5. I am in Ohio and outside of massive cheating will Trump be anywhere near close to Clinton

1) The republican governor is against him

2) a senior member of the Ohio Repug party is against him .... the man has M.S. and Trump's
making fun of a man with a neuromuscular diesease really pissed him off

3) Trump does not have a campaign office in Cincinnati (as of at least 10 days ago)

4) Trump not paying his contractors is toxic to lots of working people.

Trump is toast w/women, hispanics, blacks, jews, and thanx to Pence w/the LGBT folks too.

BTW thanx to citizens united unlimited $$$$ is pouring into the state to protect Portman in
his senate race.

[DemonGoddess]

7. ^^^This!!!

[MoonRiver]

8. Thank you for this, Botany.

There is so much negative spin in the media that it's sometimes hard to stay positive.

[Botany]

11. Looking for a Trump Office in Canton, OH?

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/states/ohio

The man just does not have the people and infrastructure in place

He has a total of 15 offices in 88 counties .....

[MoonRiver]

15. He is toast, whether the MSM wants to admit it or not, and they don't.

[Botany]

16. The MSM = this quote from the movie Casino

Nicky Santoro, "Always the dollars Always the fuckin' dollars"

They are trying to sandbag Hillary like they did Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004

[MoonRiver]

17. I really think they are. But Hillary has Obama. Gore ditched Bill Clinton, big mistake IMHO.

Plus Gore had to deal with Nader and SCOTUS. Thank Dog those factors aren't going on now. But Ohio doomed Kerry, so IDK.

[MyNameIsKhan]

18. yes you are right ? but where is obama

i tend to feel hillary is not able to keep demanding schedules ... we are asking too much from her...

[MoonRiver]

20. Obama gave a fantastic speech for her in Philly a couple of days ago. It was widely covered.

Also, Sanders will be campaigning hard for her today and in days to come. In fact, he's coming up on Morning Joke. I'll watch when they have good people on.

[uponit7771]

22. +1, I wonder wtf Gore was thinking to ditch a popular president!? Obama is strong on the stump

[MoonRiver]

23. He thought he had to take the moral "high ground" regarding the Monica affair.

It's also why he picked LIEberman as his running mate. LIEberman was one of the most outspoken Clinton critics in Congress. These were not smart moves on Gore's part.

[bettyellen]

9. Wow interesting- thank you B!

[Dawson Leery]

10. No ground game and Kasich is not on board.

The state GOP is not working with him.

[Botany]

12. I haven't spoken to him in years but I know Kasich and I have no doubt that he is working ....

.... against Trump (quietly) in OH because he wants to run for POTUS in 2020. John really
thinks that Jesus walked on earth so he can be President.

[MyNameIsKhan]

14. 2020 Kaisch Portman

[MyNameIsKhan]

13. Yes turn out machine is key here

I think Clinton is 2-3 points up in fundamentals, that is the reason they are not in panic mode, they modeling Ohio Florida NC NV PA VA NH daily and the model with low and high turn out still shows 3-7 points win ...

[MyNameIsKhan]

19. he is a lair cheater and relishes this

Medis is demoralizing Dem voters already with LV model...

[uponit7771]

24. +1, these LV models going back to 2004 is asinine