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2016 Postmortem

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts) Sun Sep 18, 2016, 11:43 AM Sep 2016

Around the.same time in 2012 Romney was tied with Obama

So polls in September don't tell how the election is.going to end up because in November of 2012 Obama won.Bottom line polling companies need a horse race. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/26/cnn-poll-perry-still-at-top-but-romney-stronger-vs-obama/

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Around the.same time in 2012 Romney was tied with Obama (Original Post) bigdarryl Sep 2016 OP

In that case HRC is doing better than Obama ... yes, they need a horse race they're as deplorable uponit7771 Sep 2016 #1

The link you cite is 2011. . . Journeyman Sep 2016 #2

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)

1. In that case HRC is doing better than Obama ... yes, they need a horse race they're as deplorable

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Sun Sep 18, 2016, 12:04 PM

Sep 2016

... as tRump supporters

Journeyman

(15,031 posts)

2. The link you cite is 2011. . .

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Sun Sep 18, 2016, 12:10 PM

Sep 2016

By late September 2012 Obama had solidified his lead and his electoral probability predictor was set at 97%.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/29/the-short-term-presidential-predictor/

For comparison, this psephologist predicts Clinton's probability as of today at 86%. But then, we're 12 days further from the election than the Obama predictor cited above, and Clinton will probably see more upward movement in the next two weeks, given Trump's erratic nature.

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