This allows me 5 "concern" posts, ok guys? :) ***Breaking Monmouth FL Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 41***

[piechartking]

4-way

Clinton 46
Trump 41
Johnson 6
Stein 1

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-5-voters-dont-buy-trump-on-birther-issue/2294359

[femmocrat]

1. MSNBC just reported an NBC/Surveymonkey poll of likely voters:

Clinton 50%
trump 45%

Is this the first time she has been at 50%?

[VMA131Marine]

2. Trump is done if he can't win Florida

This is good news! It's her best poll result in FL for quite a while and Monmouth is an 'A+' rated pollster by 538.com

[CajunBlazer]

6. See my post below - Silver is not giving a lot of weight to this poll

I don't know why if if he has it A+ rated

[pnwmom]

8. True. And the same thing goes for Pennsylvania, where she's always been ahead. n/t

[sheshe2]

3. Thanks!

No "concern" from me!

[Dem2]

4. What? Why isn't it 10 points!

[CajunBlazer]

5. Looks like good news - but not great news

The poll has just been entered on the Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Florida website. He has corrected the Florida Monmouth Poll by reducing Hillary's lead from +5 to +4 (but that still significant). He has also assigned to it a medium rating of 1.07 compared to the highest rated Sienna College Florida poll which has a weight of 1.76.

With is new poll calculated in with the existing ones, Trump's lead in the combined Florida polls dropped slightly to 46.4% to Hillary's 46.1% and his probability of winning Florida dropped slightly as well to 51.5% to Hillary's 48.5% - essentially a dead heat.

So not the very best news, but very good news none the less. Let's hope it is the start of a new trend.

(By the way, Silver does use the monkey polls because he doesn't consider them accurate enough.)

[VMA131Marine]

7. The low weight is because it is a small sample size.