Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:22 PM Sep 2016

Chillax about 538 projections.

What's important to remember about their projections is that not only do new numbers enter their data set, but old polls get phased out. So what you're seeing is polls from Clinton's strongest period of the race now rolling off, creating a false sense that the race suddenly turned this week, when in effect this is all still due to last week's numbers (which were really awful).

As we go forward in the next couple of weeks, those negative numbers will also begin to fade from the data set, and the Clinton percentages will go up assuming the polling stays consistent.

3 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Chillax about 538 projections. (Original Post) geek tragedy Sep 2016 OP
I sure hope so Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #1
Thanks for this. Seriously stressing today. LiberalLoner Sep 2016 #2
I'm glad I'm not the only one. Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #3

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)
1. I sure hope so
Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:25 PM
Sep 2016

It's kind of giving me the willows. Especially after that oat Nate put out abou ... "If the projections don't improve for Hillary in a weak, Dems should worry "

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)
3. I'm glad I'm not the only one.
Tue Sep 20, 2016, 06:52 PM
Sep 2016

I probably won't breathe a sigh of relief until I see some good movement upwards.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Chillax about 538 project...