Latest derived EV count (using PredictWise data) is Clinton 307 - Trump 231

[Godhumor]

Used state win probabilities from the PredictWise site.

In absolute terms, she is at 273 EV if she wins every state where her won probability is 83% or greater.

Date used from:
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[Farmgirl1961]

1. Good stuff

So why is that friggin' 538 site so low?

[Staph]

2. Per the PredictWise website:

PredictWise reflects David Rothschild’s academic, peer-reviewed, research into prediction markets, along with polling and online/social media data. The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. While we have great respect for: polls and online/social media data, the topline predictions reflect data that are more accurate, flexible, and update in real-time.

On the other hand, Nate Silver's 538 website primarily depends upon poll data, and that poll data is several days to a week out of date.

[Farmgirl1961]

3. Thanks for trying to keep me sane

This is very helpful. But -- I'd still like to see those number come out of the 50's for Hillary.