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2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts) Wed Sep 21, 2016, 07:54 PM Sep 2016

Sam Wang (Princeton) just poked Nate Silver on his prediction model...again

If you don't know their history, you may not know who this is directed at, but, trust me, it is a stick at Nate:

It seems to me a good prediction should do more than follow current conditions. Better to change slowly over time https://t.co/sgZuZoNV8b
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/778720189458231298

He has really not been happy with the new Nate predictive models at all this cycle.

3 replies

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Highlight:

Sam Wang (Princeton) just poked Nate Silver on his prediction model...again (Original Post) Godhumor Sep 2016 OP

Nassim Taleb was blasting Silver last night Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #1

For what it's worth, PEC's and 538's map look almost identical. RAFisher Sep 2016 #2

At the current moment there is one very likely map. Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #3

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

1. Nassim Taleb was blasting Silver last night

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Sep 21, 2016, 08:21 PM

Sep 2016

Basically says Silver's estimate "probability" behaves nothing like an accumulated estimate of binary outcome probability:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/771372006914846720

and

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/778559824305000448

RAFisher

(466 posts)

2. For what it's worth, PEC's and 538's map look almost identical.

Reply to Godhumor (Original post)

Wed Sep 21, 2016, 08:54 PM

Sep 2016

Wang has Ohio and Florida toss-up. Silver doesn't do tossups and has them both red. The only real difference they have is ME-2. Wang has it blue and Silver has it red. What's mildly funny in all of this is that between the two neither actually has a degree in statistics. But neuroscience does use alot of statistics.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

3. At the current moment there is one very likely map.

Reply to RAFisher (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 21, 2016, 09:32 PM

Sep 2016

The difference in the forecasts is just how likely the map is.

For what it's worth David Rothschild of Predictwise is also trolling Silver:

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/778543535545053184

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