2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts) Sun Sep 25, 2016, 01:36 PM Sep 2016

Election Model Update 9/25

9/24 Update

9/21 Update

9/22 Update

9/1/2016 update

8/16/2016 update

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

Model projections:

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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 71.25 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 291.57
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 294.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 299

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 63.29 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 284.25
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 285.5
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 269

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 2.45

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Election Model Update 9/25 (Original Post) Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 OP

Thanks mcar Sep 2016 #1

Largely static for a week Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #2

I agree mcar Sep 2016 #3

Like watching paint dry which is a good thing. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #4

dKos has 62% Coyotl Sep 2016 #5

I give two probabilities Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #6

mcar

(42,307 posts)

1. Thanks

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sun Sep 25, 2016, 01:37 PM

Sep 2016

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

2. Largely static for a week

Reply to mcar (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 25, 2016, 01:38 PM

Sep 2016

I think not much is changing.

mcar

(42,307 posts)

3. I agree

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 25, 2016, 01:40 PM

Sep 2016

Media will pounce on slight changes in individual polls but, unless HRC does horribly tomorrow night (very unlikely) it doesn't seem like much is changing.