Back From the Brink At 538

[Doctor Jack]

For those of us still in shock after waking up to Clinton at 51% at 538 today, know that for the moment, we have some breathing room. Clinton is up to 55% now. Not where i want to be but almost back to the recent average. Lets all take a deep breath and watch her crush the cheeto into orange dust.

[vadermike]

1. Ok

But CO and PA are trending trump and the media has already declared trump the winner of the debate even tho it hasn't happened yet Tell me how we win this I am depressed

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Trump had been behind this whole election

Have his people ever been depressed?

[remaineruk]

9. As a Brit who has just been part of losing another political vote this week

I don't get the negativity on DU. Clinton is generally still on the lead, ground game is ready etc. Most people won't change their votes from a debate and the floaters that might can be persuaded through very simple personal messaging.

Like do you want your internet freedom curtailed.....That's what trump will bring etc. Simple messages from mormal people on the ground. It works

Postivity breeds itself. Good to see your level head Loki!

[Maeve]

17. Stupid people don't depress easily

And honestly, a lot of us don't have much faith in our fellow Americans. We know them too well.

Still, appreciate the steady and calm approach!

[Loki Liesmith]

18. I've never gotten that

if we don't think much of our fellow Americans...why be a Democrat?

[Maeve]

20. Because we hope we are wrong

Deep down, yeah, we believe in people...but we know too many stupid and nasty ones. Deep down, we believe in democracy...but Dubya was president (and other terrible people get elected). We want to hope, but we also know how powerful fear is, especially in the mouth of a con man. It was an American, after all, that said "There's a sucker born every minute."

As liberals, we accept as a given that we might be wrong...but we're betting we're not. It's not as comforting as being True Believers, but do we really want to be that?

[Loki Liesmith]

21. touche

[remaineruk]

19. I believe you can win. I really do

I look at the picture beyond polls.

I know my fellow Brits. I knew we were voting out. But we had a binary vote. And the leave vote had very much been ahead for some time. Only the awful murder of an MP changed and spiked the polls to remain for a short time. There was no effective remain campaign no ground game at all with politicians who didnt believe in their own campaign....and that was so obvious. Oh and awful lot of non whites voted to leave too it really wasn't simply along race lines.

You have the electoral college. Clinton is ahead. Non whites are polling postively. I don't deny you are far closer to the facts. But polls aren't everything people voting are. PS mines a vino blanco and by the vat if I'm wrong

[Maeve]

22. Most of the time, I believe, too

Besides, I'm not sure Ireland makes enough whiskey if Drumpf wins!

[remaineruk]

24. Ah I've applied for my Irish passport

Because of brexit. So will try them all out for you!

[Maeve]

25. LOL! I have six different types upstairs right now

Not that I would want to discourage a true explorer.....

And if I had a grandparent from Ireland, I'd be applying, too.

[Farmgirl1961]

5. I'm feeling kind of in the dumps too -- the whole thing stinks

but -- I'm also volunteering at my local democratic office and have my lawn sign now (yay!). Gotta get busy and GOTV and do what YOU can do.

[LenaBaby61]

13. Pretty soon....

California and New York will be trending tRump also (Had to throw in that bit of sarcasm :lol ....

I do hear you concerning a so-called Liberal Media media bias that rethugs always throw around. Makes me sick, but there is no such thing as a fair media. The media now-a-days is mostly lazy and has a definite agenda which is not Liberal. But we know and have seen that though, especially during this craziest of elections cycles ever in history.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. LOL

Good estimates of probability shouldn't change that fast.

[Farmgirl1961]

4. I agree -- there seems to be an awful lot of very wacky polling out there today. What gives?

n/t

[Loki Liesmith]

6. It's not the polling

It's the model. It's too reactive to counter trend results.

The election is much tighter than a month ago. But the shift in the last few days may be illusory.

[Cosmocat]

7. I don't think so

the polls have been REALLY bad the last 48 hours, I think there was more blow back to her health and the deplorables than the media wanted to note last week because they knew they had over correct for Trump prior to it ...

[Loki Liesmith]

8. I don't believe the media manipulate polls that way

Apart from a few conservative firms.

Humans make several mistakes when estimating odds. One is: they underestimate the probability of a run of "bad" results.

[Cosmocat]

12. I didn't mean the media was manipulating the polls

that probably was confusing, I was talking about how they drive opinion with their narrative.

[BlueInPhilly]

30. Now that other polls have been released

Showing HRC ahead, how do you like them polls now?

[Cosmocat]

32. "Like" has nothing to do with

The polls themselves.

It is data either way.

Some more positive polls for her have come out, staving off the trend moving toward the jackass.

[Wounded Bear]

29. Good point...

I've read that there are some fundamental issues with his probability graph, and that he's excercising some new algorthyms.

I don't buy that things are as bad as a lot of people are wailing about.

[LAS14]

10. 56 to 44 now.

[LAS14]

14. Oh. I refreshed my screen and it's back down. In fact...

.. the Nowcast has Trump ahead by .6.

I know there are disagreements with 538 and Upshot is more encouraging but what the f***k is happening here????

[LAS14]

28. Flash in the pan. Back to 52.4 to 47.6.

I'm getting whiplash!

Oh! That was Nowcast. Polls only is 54.6 to 44.3

[asiliveandbreathe]

15. Sam Wang - Princeton - I like his analysis..

As of September 26, 12:04PM EDT:
Snapshot (149 state polls): Clinton 292, Trump 246 EV    Meta-margin: Clinton +1.5% RSS

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 69%, Bayesian 79%

Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51, Meta-margin: R +0.7%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 55%

- If there is a chair at tonight's debate - I do hope it is a chair of Hillary's choosing...too many times I have seen the chair way too tall - or way to big...Hillary looking comfortable may not sound important..but, If she looks comfortable..then I am comfortable..IMHO...

[Doctor Jack]

16. These wild swings dont help to inspire confidence in 538

The instability in his model has to raise some eyebrows. I may be a layperson with this stuff but its getting hard to take it serious when its jumping around like a rabbit on cocaine.

[Loki Liesmith]

26. Think about what it means

According to 538s best guess. 100s of thousands to several million people just changed their minds

in an hour.

[ailsagirl]

23. Thanks, Doctor Jack

I haven't been over there in some time because it's gotten too scary

[beachbum bob]

27. Silly watching daily polls...daily odds...

[BlueInPhilly]

31. Daily???

These folks watch it hourly! The constant movement in 538 only means high volatility.