FL & NV turned blue yesterday, NC will probably today, OH soon after

[ffr]

Hillary has momentum! Her numbers are skyrocketing!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

The 538 forecasts are changing by the hour. Ohio isn't the exception either. GA, IA, and AZ are all moving too.

[muntrv]

1. Nice but I'll believe it when I see it on 11/8/16.

[ffr]

2. That's the poll that matters

On a personal note, I was swamped last night with volunteer cards and voter registrations to enter, of the demographic that they were mostly college students. HFA had a very good day yesterday as more people showed they were behind Hillary. The HFA office staff was overjoyed and it showed.

People are very excited by how things are going just before state voter registration deadlines. The first debate set all this into motion going into the campaign's home stretch. I'm feeling it too.

[bettyellen]

16. Thanks! Where was this?

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

3. Ohio is very strong for Trump at this point.

I would have though Ohioans had better sense overall.

[ffr]

4. Very strong? Doesn't appear so.

HRC campaign is campaigning there for several days next week, right at the same time all trending forecasts show she can win there.

www.democraticunderground.com/12512456406

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. Right now, as I type this,

538 is giving 45.3% for Hillary, 54.7% for Donald. That's landslide territory.

We can certainly hope that those numbers change significantly between now and November 8, but 9 points is a lot.

[AJH032]

8. That's probability of winning - not vote margins

Just FYI 538 is giving Trump a 54.7% chance of winning the state, as of right now, if the election were held today. It's not saying he's going to win with 54.7% of the vote. So, it's actually very close.

[moda253]

9. On the now cast, polls only, or polls plus?

Because I see it differently there.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

11. I'm looking at the polls only.

[jcgoldie]

10. wrong.

It's extremely close. Those are probabilities not point margins.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

12. Even as a probability it's scary

that he has a 54% chance of winning Ohio. That still says that at this point in time more Ohio voters say they'll vote for him. I sincerely hope that changes.

I find it almost unbelievable that more than about 30% of the voting public could possibly vote for Donald.

[jcgoldie]

13. It has already flipped on the nowcast

Which means if the election were held today 538 projects she would win OH. I agree that its a shame 40+% of the population will vote for il cheeto duce, but welcome to our polarized sexist fox news and talk radio inspired society.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

14. But the election isn't being held today.

And the polls and polls plus forecast still give Trump a strong chance of winning.

[jcgoldie]

15. no they don't

Once again 54% is pretty close to even. Your "landslide" comment was ridiculous and still is as many here have pointed out. And none of that even touches the point that Ohio is icing for HRC. He needs it, she don't.

[yellowcanine]

17. Ohio is very tight and at the moment moving toward Hillary.

The polls only forecast does not account for differences in the ground game, which also favors Hillary - by a lot. If the race is within a couple of points either way on election day I think she wins Ohio.

[DarthDem]

5. Yeah, I Don't Agree With That At All

Anyone - including the author of that piece yesterday or today in Time magazine or whatever - who thinks Ohio is some settled question is, in my humble opinion, jumping the gun and completely wrong.

[Cracklin Charlie]

6. My favorite color!

[Dawson Leery]

18. Don't discount AZ/GA due to demographics and suburbanites

who fear a Trump Presidency.