2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCBS poll: 51% of Millennials voting either Republican or Libertarian (white women only 49%)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-edges-ahead-of-donald-trump-after-first-presidential-debate-hofstra-2016-cbs-nyt-poll/Millennials (especially white Millennials) are a lot more anti-government than people realize. Policy arguments (student loans/tuition etc) are not going to work on them in this election cycle.
Looks like it's up to Gen X to save the day, not that anyone ever notices us.
The Democratic base is women, and people of color. Young white voters are not part of our base, so we should stop chasing after them as if they're defectors instead of people who never were on our side in general. When one considers that young Latino and black voters are NOT voting Republican or Libertarian, this becomes even more clear--that 51% probably shoots up to 60+% if we're talking about only white Millennials.
Btw, 51% of white Millennials voted for Romney in 2012.
This election will be won by turning out our base, not chasing the unicorn of young voters who aren't on our side and aren't going to show up to vote anyways.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)Mom and Dad's basement isn't always going to be there.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)it's been that way for decades.
no one wins elections with young voters as their base.
Monk06
(7,675 posts)old
The social media generation is not necessarily politically aware as you say
NobodyHere
(2,810 posts)I'd say that they are the least informed.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)Hillary 71% to win..1/2 hour ago -
I also would like to know where they categorize the Latino-Latina vote..just sayin'
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Polling Latinos is usually pretty bad unless they're polling in Spanish as well as English.
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)asked me this question this past week-end....my only answer at the time was don't you worry - the Latino population is right there w/Hillary...and you are correct - unless they poll in Spanish and English - it is hard to poll...be well
Zing Zing Zingbah
(6,496 posts)I think we'd have more of them voting dem. Under 30's probably don't remember the years Bill Clinton was president all that well and so they might be more likely to buy into the crap the right wingers have been saying about Hillary pretty much all their lives.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)isn't age, it's education level
TXCritter
(344 posts)You know we are.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)TXCritter
(344 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)But do we get any credit? No. We still don't.
Course not.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)It's not all that clear that Johnson voters prefer Clinton to Trump
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)nt
Codeine
(25,586 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)RandySF
(58,799 posts)I saw a poll that had Romney leading among Latinos in 2012
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)The ones that realize that Mittsy has a HUGE Mexican extended family south of the border!!!
A lot of those Romney polygamous Mormons went south of the border and never left. He's got relatives, named Romney, who look just like him and habla el espanol just like a native--because they ARE natives~!
MADem
(135,425 posts)I think a lot of those disaffected types won't even show up on election day.
Ligyron
(7,632 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)You can't convince me for a moment there's really that much Libertarian support out there.
Why are young people turning their backs to on Democrats in such stark choice contrast to 8 years ago?
Codeine
(25,586 posts)They'll grow out of it. Meanwhile it means fuck-all, because the vast majority won't vote for anyone anyway.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)it's probably going to pass in California, and eventually the people on the East Coast who still think it's a giant joke are going to "evolve" as well.
Johonny
(20,841 posts)Democrats were slow to the message that Johnson is planning to dismantle social security, medicare, Obamacare, food stamps, the FED, income tax...
What he'll never pass is a single thing on weed because the Republican majority in congress don't care. All the stuff Johnson doesn't want you to know about is the stuff he'd do, all the stuff he wants you to hear is the stuff he won't push too hard because congress has no interest in it.
Weed, like gay marriage, appears to be a state level up agenda where eventually its popularity pushes federal levels to say screw it I don't care its legal because its virtually legal anyways. It's not worth a presidential vote for.
qwlauren35
(6,148 posts)the high cost of college.
They are young, so they don't know when the cost rose, they just know they can't afford it right now, or that the student loans are killing them.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Charismatic, brilliant sense of comic timing, hip to contemporary culture.
There aren't any Will I. Am. videos for Clinton. It's never been cool to vote for her.
In case you doubt that's a thing, ask why Bill is more popular than Hillary. Sure isn't policy or honesty.
radius777
(3,635 posts)Both Bill and Obama were new to the national political scene, and charismatic as well.
Both Gore and Hillary are policy wonks who were/are viewed as part of the establishment.
What it boils down to is Dems/H need to do a much better job at explaining the differences between their policies and that of the GOP/Trump, which are outdated and dangerous for all people, especially young people.
She needs to impress upon them that she will continue much of Obama's vision, policies which are forward looking (such as on the environment, technology, healthcare) and thus attractive to young people.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)their base is smaller, but it always turns out.
MirrorAshes
(1,262 posts)As an older millenial, I'm disappointed in a lot of my peers, but I think those numbers under-represent the number of people who may dislike Clinton and let it show when polled, but who will ultimately vote for her because deep down they know they have to. I've seen the slow, begrudging shift towards her in my social media and I expect that to continue.
qwlauren35
(6,148 posts)Hillary has 40% of the Millennial vote. That's nothing to sneeze at. Engaged millennial voters make excellent ground troops. We certainly should encourage them.
The 21% for Johnson is a protest vote, from young people who believe in protesting.
So yes, if you look at 30 + 21, that's effectively 50% Republican. But to write off that 40% is a big mistake. And I think that's why Hillary is going to colleges. That's Millennials. Millennials attending college is part of her base.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)The worst demo is the 65+. These people have continuously voted against progressive. They are the ones keeping the country back. Ironically it was Clinton's best demo in the primary, and now its Trump.
herding cats
(19,564 posts)The only difference is the under 30 demographic are voting by a larger margin for the Libertarian and Green Parties. Which has zero effect beyond possibly handing the election to Trump if they live in a close call swing state.
The good news is the under 30 third party voters tend to change their votes as they mature. The bad news is that with that many voting Libertarian now, it may imply they'll mature to be Republican voters. ☹️
kcjohn1
(751 posts)She is +10 with under 30, and -13 with 65+. She needs to win by greater margin with the young voters only because she is down big with the senior population.
If we took 65+ crowd out from this election should would win by double digits.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)As I said, it's up to Gen X to save the day this time.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)emulatorloo
(44,120 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)the crowd is cran-ky
Doodley
(9,088 posts)MirrorAshes
(1,262 posts)Sure, they're flirting with Johnson and Stein, but the actual "millenials for trump" vote is still relatively small.
LonePirate
(13,419 posts)That's the only reason they are supporting Johnson. Legalization, more so than college costs, drive that voting group.
MirrorAshes
(1,262 posts)And while she absolutely should (and I believe will) open up medical marijuana and rescheduling it entirely, those are things to be done after she's won, not as a hail mary campaign appeal before the election.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)reconcile the inherent conflict between federal and state law.
Although I've noticed that people have vastly different perceptions depending on where they are in this country, longitudinally. People on the Eastern side of this country think they're being wildly progressive if they support only minor criminal sanctions for pot smokers. Those of us on the west coast have legalization as a reality or near-reality, and are done with prohibition.
Also, a majority of Americans support legalization. Not just medical, either. Full fucking legalization, where consenting adults can purchase legal, regulated cannabis and pay taxes that go into government coffers on the transaction.
MirrorAshes
(1,262 posts)She still doesn't need to make it a central theme of her campaign at this stage of the game, though.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Youth vote is driven by who's considered 'cool.' That, and not policy, is why Obama did so well.
Voting for Clinton will never be cool to the kidz.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Bill USA
(6,436 posts)into voting for a Corporate Feudalism, where the Corporations and those who own & control them are the new Lords of the land, and everybody who works for a living are the Serfs, struggling to survive.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)... 6% of Republicans are voting for Hillary compared to 5% Democrats for Trump. The 6% must be made up heavily of high placed Republicans who have come out for Hillary publicly but don't have much influence over their own party members.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)So they would identify as Independents.
MFM008
(19,808 posts)Vote for maggot.
Period.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... ng
TeamPooka
(24,223 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I laughed so hard my teeth came out and my prostate spasmed!
Thrill
(19,178 posts)tonyt53
(5,737 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Why the fuck anyone is willing to cede legalization to the fucking Libertarian party, is beyond me. A majority of Americans support it, and California is probably going to pass it. It's coming, whether Ken Sabet, Chuck Grassley and Patrick Kennedy like it, or not.
Unfortunately the East Coast conventional wisdom types are slow to grasp political reality, and as such are running about 5 years behind the times... and it is harming our party's prospects.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)as I do, while still being bemused by the notion that it should be a deciding factor in anyone's voting decision. Getting high shouldn't be that high a priority. It's infantile.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)lives and taken several huge shits all over the bill of rights.
Anything that drives a stake through the heart of that fucking policy Dracula- and mark my words, pot legalization is a big one- is absofuckinglutely a priority.
If someone wants to call me "infantile" for thinking this is an actual important issue, fucking fine. I'm closer to the grave at this point, than the cradle. Move me in the other direction all you want.
Sancho
(9,069 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Rather than pissing and moaning that Gary Johnson gets the pot legalization vote, we should be courting it.
That would be the smart thing to do.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)To the extent they care more about getting high than global warming or escaping student debt, not terribly sympathetic to their plight.
To the extent they choose politicians the way they choose their favorite local band, not at all sympathetic.
Young people/voters tend to be flaky in their behavior, so generally they don't get paid much attention.
When Clinton does produce a strong policy on 'their' issues, they thumb their noses at it, because it's, like, so derivative and un-buzz worthy.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Just a friendly suggestion.
It's interesting that we dont see this sort of broad-brushed nastiness thrown at the older voters who skew strongly for Trump. Hmmm.
But I digress. If we really want to get into the weeds (so to speak) of cannabis policy, changing the scheduling from I to II does essentially nothing to reconcile the conflict between federal law and state law, not just on recreational but also medical.
Far more crucial from a policy standpoint is Hillary's verbal commitment to let states act as "labratories of democracy", although eventually federal law is going to need to be fixed. There is also the matter of allowing cannabis businesses access to the banking system. Of course, our platform calls for a "reasonable pathway to legalization" (thanks, Bernie!) but of course we all know that platforms have a mostly symbolic policy role.
What is really going to make a difference is if (when) California passes prop 64. 50 million Americans- the entire West Coast- will have legalization as a functional reality. "facts on the ground", so to speak.
Then the East Coasters who are only dimly aware that there seem to be quite a few people living somewhere out there past all those mountains, are going to need to start to take this issue with the seriousness it deserves.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 4, 2016, 12:26 PM - Edit history (1)
voting for Trump specifically because he'll hurt minorities. Same crowd that voted Hitler into power.
I favor legalization, but don't see it as the transcendent issue facing humanity.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you know, crap about favorite bands and whatnot.
I don't think it's particularly productive in terms of winning their support.
Legalization isn't "the transcendent issue facing humanity" but it's favored by a majority of Americans and it actually is a pressing matter bringing people to the polls in several states.
And while the conventional wisdom folks on the East Coast, in large part, seem to think it's giant joke or don't get it, out here we have serious Democrats like Newsom and Merkley and Blumenauer who are fully behind it.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Certainly to the extent it dovetails with harassment of young Latino and black men, it's an issue here on the east coast.
I just don't get people who'll turn out to vote on weed but not on climate change and their economic future.
I try to be authentic and write in my own voice. Figure the younger folks would respect that.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)So from a practical perspective, it should merit consideration from political strategists on our side.
My observation, again, is that the farther East you go, the less understanding of the matter there is. I think it's still viewed as a Tommy Chong, "Buddy the bud mascot" type matter out there. Or the East Coasters think they're being progressive by not putting people in prison for more than a couple months if they're busted with a small bag of weed.
Here legalization is a functional reality, supported by serious politicians like the Lt. Governor of California (who I suspect will achieve more prominence on the national stage in the next decade or so) and it's a question of banking services and implementation and over 100 million dollars in tax revenue in Oregon from the first year of recreational sales alone.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)You're right, nobody notices us, it's all about the boomers and the millenials. But I like my generation.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And you guys have a far higher percentage for Johnson, which means you all listen to Justin Beiber or something.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)But, yeah, there is a libertarian streak in my generation. It was the trendy "different" thing in college. I hoped we would grow out of it.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)you know, smoke pot, watch porn, if everyone involved is a consenting adult- that kind of thing.
Stuff we as serious-minded progressives all realize isn't a big deal, or shouldn't be the business of government.
Used to be, in my day, "liberal" was synonymous with a strong personal freedom agenda, thrown up in stark contrast against Jerry Falwell and Ed Meese and the Jesus people in charge of the Republican Party. The "libertarians" were a non-entity.
Somehow we have allowed themselves to distinguish an ideological space on the basis of issues we should be in favor of anyway- because really, all that Ayn Rand nonsense about getting rid of public education and privatizing fire departments doesn't have very much traction.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Frankly, I don't care much about pot legalization, there are much bigger problems, but yeah I think it should be legal.
But the libertarians I know, and knew, aren't really about pot. They're about "taxation is slavery" and there should be no food inspections or medical licenses or anything because "the market" will fix everything. It's a utopian fantasy.
When I was in college and libertarianism was "cool and alternative", legalizing drugs and prostitution was really an afterthought. It wasn't social liberalism driving the Ayn Rand stuff, it was Ayn Rand in the driver's seat.
Yeah, maybe the libertarians have used social liberalism to further their nutty economic ideas, but based on my personal experience (which is obviously just my own experience), it seems to me that the people going libertarian are actually into the nutty economic ideas.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)When I was that age I was reading Robert Anton Wilson, instead.
I think if we were serious about taking weed out of the equation at the level of the national conversation, Johnson's support would drop by half.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Maybe if we went full pot legalization, it would work like you said.
My guess is that it wouldn't make much difference, for reasons I explained. But I could easily be wrong. It's not based on polls or anything, it's based on people I've talked to over the years, which is pretty far from a uniform sample of anything.
But yeah, let's legalize pot. The real question is what to do with heroin and coke and the rest. Should it all be legal? I'm not sure. Pot is harmless, heroin is not.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I'm coming to the opinion that, from a public health and safety perspective, nothing could possibly be worse than prohibition. And philosophically (this is where the libertarians make the slightest sliver of sense) I still stand by the idea, as a sort of baseline starting point, that a consenting adult should be able to do whatever the fuck he or she wants with his or her own body and nervous system, as long as he or she isn't directly harming or endangering anyone else.
Ah, you say, what about people who drive under the influence or neglect their kids? Well, neglecting kids or driving under the influence are, themselves, separate actionable crimes and should be treated as such. Absolutely.
But actual hard drug use, I think, or more specifically hard drug addiction, should be treated as a public health issue and not a law enforcement one. And statistically, what many people don't realize, is that even the super-dangerous addictive drugs like heroin, not everyone who uses them becomes an addict. Now, I admit I have real trouble envisioning heroin or meth being available at the 7-11. But I think we need to at least stop treating possession of amounts for personal use as a prison-worthy offense, or maybe even as a crime at all. The resources would be far better funneled into treatment on demand for those who do have problems.
I also think we're way overdue for treating the issue of "drugs" like a mature and sensible species, and not knee-jerking black and white all over the issue. All "drugs" are not created equal. Psychedelics are a very different animal from opiates, etc. I think our society actually has a need for the sort of transformative growth experiences which can be facilitated by certain psychedelics, as well as ritualized contexts for those experiences. But that's probably a Terrence McKenna conversation for a different day.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)It's not just about people who drive under the influence or neglect kids, it's about the harm to the users of the drugs themselves.
And the thing is, even if we legalize heroin, there still has to be a line. Do we legalize all substances, including hospital grade anesthetics? Should all prescription and hospital drugs be available over the counter? I don't think so, at all. People will die.
The flip side is, yeah, banning heroin is a nanny state thing. It's the government telling you that you can't do something, for your own good. Basically, the government is saying, we know better than you what is good for you.
And that doesn't make a good soundbite, but the government does that all the time, and it has to. You can't sell your organs, for example. I agree with you that possession for personal use should not be a prison offense, or maybe not even a crime. But selling should be illegal. Selling medical services without a license is illegal, as is selling unsafe cars, and shady investments, and so on.
It gets to the general point that, there are times that there is a willing buyer and a willing seller, but the transaction should still be illegal. Because people are not rational agents of economic theory, they are people. Whether it's payday loans with exorbitant rates, phony pseudoscientific "medicine", or whatever, the "caveat emptor" theory of regulation, that libertarians advocate, very frequently results in people getting screwed and other people getting rich by exploiting them.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)But prohibition doesn't work, either, and has all kinds of shitty fallout which we've been dealing with. People are dying from the drug war, too.
We deal with payday loans by regulating the lending industry, not outlawing lending entirely. All these are arguments for legalization and regulation, not prohibition.
Beyond that, at some point the people who are perpetually angry about things like other people using drugs or watching pornography are going to need to get over their bad selves.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)In some cases there aren't any good solutions.
Being morally outraged at people who watch porn or use drugs is useless and dumb. BTW I think drugs and porn are totally different categories, even if porn might be "addictive" in some sense, it's a far cry from heroin. I have no moral issues with drug use, I've used drugs and don't feel immoral about it. But I do think it's immoral for people to get rich by selling heroin.
You're right, the solution is regulation, but regulation means that some things are illegal. And, in a sense, usury is actually outlawed. In my view, a law that says 30% APR is legal but 300% APR is illegal is comparable to a law that says that pot is legal but heroin is illegal.
But in either case, I agree that the consumer should not be punished. Buying heroin should be treated the same way as getting a credit card or payday loan with 300% APR. In both cases, it's probably a bad idea, even though it might seem like a good idea at the time, but you shouldn't be punished for it. But the people making a profit off of it, who know that it's a bad idea, but also know that humans, being imperfect and irrational, will make certain bad decisions in a predictable way, and know that they can profit from doing harm, should be punished.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And they have a vested interest in blocking out competition; we've seen that in Arizona with Fentanyl manufacturers backing anti-pot legalization. I suspect it is in the mix with the DEA trying to make Kratom schedule I.
But we also have a situation, now, where legitimate pain patients are suffering because we have this desire to "crack down on the prescription drug crisis", right? So not only are people with pain mgt. needs suffering, but the people who are inclined to abuse; and some pain patients as well- move into the illegal black market.
So really you come up against the situation where you have to weigh whether it's more important to keep people from getting an unauthorized buzz than to treat people in pain with compassion.
In terms of a profit motive, also, things like heroin and cocaine are fundamentally not that expensive to produce. It is the prohibitionary market and related forces, along with things like drug companies cornering the legal market, that keep prices inflated.
I don't know what the exact answer is, either.
Johonny
(20,841 posts)the civil rights war of the 1960s. The youth vote seems to indicate that they simply haven't looked hard at people like Johnson, while the older voters have learned to ignore the noise candidates that never win and seem to always have hidden stink bombs.
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)Not random ones, but grandchildren, nieces and nephews, your own children, and any other millennials with whom you have some sort of positive relationship. Ask them why they're considering a third party or Republican vote and talk straightforwardly about the issues they bring up, adding other issues they may not be considering.
I have millennial nieces and nephews with whom I get along well. When we communicate, it's on a fairly casual basis, and takes into consideration of my history of listening to them when they bring up serious things. I don't tell them what to do, ever, but I do discuss things they might have missed in forming opinions.
At this point, pretty much all of them are voting for Hillary, and I'm working on the few who aren't. I'm their uncle, not a parent, and I never take a parent-style approach to any of them. I've been talking to them for years as individual people in whom I'm interested, and they trust me and contact me from time to time to discuss stuff they're sorting out. One niece called me to ask how she should approach telling her parents that she is bisexual. I know her parents well, so I gave her some ideas about how to approach the subject without pushing any buttons that would cloud acceptance. She took my advice and now her parents are being quite supportive, despite their misgivings about it.
Use your uncleness or auntness. We're usually non-threatening, non-judgmental adults in their lives. They often trust us.
apnu
(8,756 posts)Not much has changed in 4 years I guess. Many millennials remain convinced to vote against their own best interests.
There's no reaching out to that group. They've got to fall flat on their faces before they learn that Conservatives have zero interest in helping them do anything.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)with white millennial men.
Latino and black Millennials are more sensible, but the key is to get them to vote
apnu
(8,756 posts)White men, millennial or not, are probably going to break for Trump. Just as they did for Romney too. Obama barely won 18-29 white men in 2008. McCain won the 30+ white male crowd that year. http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/
Again, its up to women and non-whites to save America. I hope that Hillary brings them out in droves, its going to come down to GOTV.
I am heartened when I hear that Trump has no ground game anywhere. He's not got people knocking on doors, calling lists, and working locally to get people to the polls. His campaign seems to think, like Bernie's did, that big crowds is all the community outreach needed.
Peacetrain
(22,875 posts)but there are a bunch of republican Millennials in my neck of the woods..
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Peacetrain
(22,875 posts)or it seems that way to me.. I am an older boomer and an older Mom. and I think they(the Millennials) carry more of their parents political proclivities.. The younger boomers and older Xers were a LOT more conservative than I or my friends were..