Franklin & Marshall PA Poll: HRC surges to 9-pt lead; McGinty (D) leads by 6 in Senate Race

[book_worm]

Donald Trump's numbers have fallen in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll from Franklin and Marshall College.

Hillary Clinton leads Trump 47 to 38 percent among likely voters in F&M's survey. That's a steep change from much of September, when Trump was within a few points of Clinton.

F&M's Poll Director Terry Madonna said the Republican's losses reflect several recent incidents.
Notably, "the debate performance, the back-and-forth with the former Miss Universe, some of the more provocative statements he made last week, and of course the income tax situation."

That "income tax situation" showed that Trump could have gone 18 years without paying federal income taxes.

Trump's low numbers don't just affect him; they also have an outsize impact down-ballot races. Chief among those is Pennsylvania's US Senate race between Democrat Katie McGinty and Republican incumbent Pat Toomey.

"When Hillary Clinton does better, McGinty does better because of the coattail effect--straight-party voting," Madonna said.
The survey shows Toomey trailing by six points.

http://www.witf.org/state-house-sound-bites/2016/10/fm-poll-shows-sharp-drop-for-trump-in-pa.php

Throughout the campaign, he's been winning white men, but the latest F&M poll has him losing that group of voters, 46 percent to 40 percent.

Most of those men are college-educated voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, but Benjamin Owens also fits into the category.

The 24-year-old assistant manager at Cole's Hardware is an independent among conservatives in Snyder County.

"This year, Hillary Clinton is the lesser of two evils," Owens said. "I can't handle the lack of morality Trump has voiced, and he has nothing to offer the middle class. I believe Hillary Clinton is the candidate who can make a positive impact on my life and my lifestyle."

Clinton is winning the heavy population centers, such as Philadelphia, the Philadelphia suburbs and Pittsburgh.

The Democrat is winning Pittsburgh by 37 percent, northeast Pennsylvania by 22 percent, Philadelphia County by 45 percent and the southeastern suburbs by 26 percent.

"You cannot lose that area by 26 points and carry the state," Madonna said.

http://www.pennlive.com/news/2016/10/clinton_takes_double-digit_lea_1.html

[OnDoutside]

1. How reputable is F&M ?

[molova]

3. They were very accurate in 2012 (Obama vs. Romney)

Their last poll predicted a 4% victory for Obama. He won by 5.4% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

[book_worm]

10. That's good to know.

[DeminPennswoods]

6. The Gold Standard of PA polling

Terry Madonna and his crew have been following and polling Pennsylvania politics for decades. Madonna is considered the "dean" of state politics.

For years Madonna was a professor at Millersville College before moving on the Franklin and Marshall in 2004 and taking his polling operation with him. Prior to being known as the "Franklin & Marshall Poll", it was known as the "Keystone Poll". This poll is to Pennsylvania as the Field Poll is to California.

I'd say Muhlenberg is probably the next best state poll. Susquehanna is ok, but tends to lean Repbulican. But the out-of-state pollsters really don't understand the voting dynamics here. Perhaps surprisingly, neither of the main public colleges - PSU and Pitt - produce their own polls.

[OnDoutside]

7. Thanks

[molova]

2. There's an error in the article

It says, "That's a steep change from much of September, when Trump was within a few points of Clinton."

But my search in RCP and HuffPo revealed no poll in September by this pollster.

[DCBob]

4. Not an error.. an observation.

They are just noting this result is a big change from other recent polling.

[molova]

8. It's both an observation and an error

You don't say there was a change from poll X relative to polls B, C and D.
Apples vs. Apples and Oranges vs. Oranges.

Clinton's lead increased relative to a Franklin and Marshall poll in August.

Observations can be errors.

[DCBob]

9. Its an accurate observation.

This poll differs from previous polling trend. Very simple accurate comment.

[DCBob]

5. If this is accurate then Hillary is in very good shape.

Trumps only slim hope of winning this thing would have to include PA.