*****BREAKING BATTLEGROUND NORTH CAROLINA POLL***** CLINTON 45% TRUMP 39%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

ELON POLL: Clinton jumps to new lead in N.C.,
Cooper ahead of McCrory
The survey finds voters support making police videos public, split on whether police treat blacks worse than whites
FULL REPORT with METHODOLOGY & CROSS TABS

Oct. 4, 2016 – Democrat Hillary Clinton has turned a virtual tie two weeks ago into a nearly 6-point lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump in the battleground state of North Carolina, according to the latest findings by the Elon University Poll. The jump in support for Clinton comes with nearly two-thirds of likely voters saying she won the Sept. 26 presidential debate, and nearly half saying they now have less confidence in Trump after his debate performance.

“We are seeing an unusually strong post-debate bump for Clinton in North Carolina,” said Jason Husser, assistant professor of political science and the director of the Elon University Poll. “A majority of N.C. voters thought Clinton won’t the debate, but future campaign events will determine if this bump is only temporary or more lasting."


https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/100416.html

[C_U_L8R]

1. Trump is collapsing

It's a beautiful thing

[Hachetman]

24. Sadly...

Now if he could just collapse in Ohio where I lie, i would be much happier. I just came back from North Carolina where my parents live. Amazing when North Carolina is more sane and liberal than Ohio.

More Trump sings in my neighborhood than in my whole trip to North Carolina...sadly...

[4lbs]

33. It's because of the changing demographics in NC compared to Ohio.

Ohio is 81% or more white. Has been that way for decades.

N.C. is gradually becoming more diverse. At last count, N.C. was 30% minority, with the vast majority of that being African-Americans. Hillary has the AA vote 95% to 5%.

As the South gradually becomes more diverse and the percentage of minorities increases, it will slowly switch back to being Democratic leaning like before the mid-1960s. However, Democratic in a good way. Not the "good 'ol boy" Democrats of the 1940s and 1950s.

Soon, all a Democrat will need to do to win Southern states is split the white vote, or come close, and the minority vote will make up the rest

[a kennedy]

2. Yeeehaaaaa......

[bHillary Clinton has turned a virtual tie two weeks ago into a nearly 6-point lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump in the battleground state of North Carolina,

[Adrahil]

3. Dude, this it totally Yabba Dabba Do worthy.... NT

[Hachetman]

25. ohhhh...

Ohhhh...absolutely.

[Little Star]

4. She's so dang cute!

[Hortensis]

5. Fingers crossed! America needs its people to remember

to be good

[First Speaker]

6. This is genuinely good news

[Johnny2X2X]

7. NC and FL trending hard left

The Trump path to victory is gone without both NC and FL.

[book_worm]

8. NC is looking good, VA is looking good, CO is looking good and PA is looking good

What is wrong with you Ohio? Bottom line is if we win all the above we don't need Ohio.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. Our independent voters must be insane.

The spread among Republicans for Trump and Democrats for Clinton is like the national average, but "independent" voters supposedly broke for Trump in the last couple months.

I wish I knew the reason. I looked up a study from a few years ago that described where people of different political affiliations stand on issues in Ohio, and the independent voters were pretty similar to Democrats. An exception was gun control where they seemed more aligned with Republicans.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. Keep it up, Tar Heels!

I hope that Ohio comes to its senses and follows suit.

[DownriverDem]

23. What is wrong with Ohio?

I just don't get it except that Ohio has been repub for decades.

[rbrnmw]

30. We went Obama in 08 and 12 and I believe Kerry in 04

I am totally shocked because Trump is a moron, and our Governor hasn't been exactly warm and cuddly with Trump.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

32. According to the recent Q poll...

... Trump has a big lead, nearly 20%, among independent voters now. Other polls showed an even race between Clinton and Trump just a couple months ago!

I'm wondering if NRA ads played a role? The ads claim that Hillary and Ted Strickland (Senate candidate) oppose the 2nd amendment. When I looked up group beliefs about gun control, it looked like independent voters might be more gun-nutty than Republicans here!

I don't really know the answer, though.

[book_worm]

10. Clinton is getting 98% of the black vote and 61% of female voters in NC

Clinton has retained her support among black voters, with 98 percent planning to vote for her, while benefitting by a widening gender gap in the race. Among those planning to head to the polls in North Carolina next month, 61 percent of female voters plan to voter for Clinton while 56 percent of male voters plan to pick Trump. Two weeks ago, she held a 53-47 advantage over Trump among likely female voters.

[Persondem]

12. That's what I'm talking about!! Great news.

It's about time my home state got some sense. K & R

[oasis]

13. Smooth sailing from here, no looking back.

Shimmy and boogaloo.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Democrats lead in accepted mail-in NC ballots

Nearly 97,200 North Carolinians have requested ballots, with 40 percent coming from registered Republican voters, 32 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than 1 percent from registered Libertarians.

Of the 15,845 returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 40 percent, registered Republicans at 35 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 25 percent.

Registered Democrats continue to lead in the accepted ballots numbers, and are over-performing their 2012 same-day comparison numbers, at 129 percent of where they were in accepted ballots on the same day from four years ago. Registered unaffiliated voters are 128 percent of their same-day accepted ballots, and registered Republicans are 66 percent of where they were four years ago on the same day. Overall, the total returned and accepted mail-in ballots are at 96 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012.

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/10/the-patterns-continue-for-nc-absentee.html

via Balloon Juice. So I hope that means Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting for Hillary, while Republicans are holding back, thinking "can I really vote for him?"

[Wounded Bear]

26. I assume that your numbers there...

(or, well the article's numbers) are not actual votes, but just the number of ballots returned?

I presume they aren't allowed to release real results until Nov 8, right?

Still, encouraging news.

[muriel_volestrangler]

29. Yeah; it is possible they include switch votes or 3rd party votes

but I would think they will mainly point at an enthusiasm level for the 2 main candidates.

[Wounded Bear]

31. It's all good....

I'll take the good news for what it is. Like you say, it does point to the enthusiasm level on both sides.

I hope Repubs in general are losing hope.

[Zambero]

15. Reminds me of a Paul Simon Song

"Slip sliding away...."

[ffr]

16. Hard work pays off. Register them voters my HFA family!

[retrowire]

17. Thank goodness.

And fellow Democrats, please wish my state well for the local battle as well. We need McCrory OUT.

[stonecutter357]

18. K&R!

[ananda]

19. Ohhh yess!

Good news!

[wiggs]

20. When voters see HRC and democrats directly, without editing and commentary by media, HRC gets

a bounce...such as the debate and the convention. The more they see HRC through the Fox and media lens, the tighter the race.

[Cryptoad]

21. Sorry according Morning Joe this poll ,,,,

don't mean shit, just that Trump is neck and neck with HRC,,, unlike OHIO Poll where Trump has 3 pt lead that shows Trump is blowing HRC out of the water!

[Demsrule86]

22. He can't lose Carolina and win ...he has a limited

path to the presidency...thank God.

[Wounded Bear]

28. Trump has many more "must win" states than Clinton does....

that's the beauty of it. They're like the little boy poking his fingers in holes in the dike. And Trump's fingers aren't big enough to plug them.

[NastyRiffraff]

27. Wonderful news!

Go North Carolina! And Ohio...what the fuck is WRONG with you people?

Love the shimmy song!

[democrattotheend]

34. This same pollster had Trump up 1 two weeks ago

Elon 9/12 - 9/16 644 LV 3.9 43 44 6 Trump +1