The House Is Back in Play

[Coyotl]

With a month to go, this is possible.

The House Is Back in Play
By steve schear Oct 05, 2016 · 4:22 PM PDT

Back in August, when Hillary was riding high, Nancy Pelosi was urging progressive leaders to help take the House for the Dems. Those discussions receded when Trump crept closer before his debate debacle. Now Hillary is well up again and the House is ripe to be taken.

Statistical mavens have determined that if Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, the Dems would have a good chance to take the House. Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Skelley has projected that with a 5 point margin, Clinton would win in 39 districts currently held by Republicans, creating a great opportunity for the Dems to win the 30 seats they need for a majority. Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, has calculated that if Trump gets less than 45% in a congressional district, the Republican House candidate is likely to lose.

According to Nate Silver’s analysis of current polling, Hillary is up by 4.5 points nationally and Trump is projected to win only 43.6% of the popular vote. If Hillary maintains or increases her lead, the Dems have a good statistical chance of taking the House.

But we won’t take the House by just riding on Hillary’s coattails. The impact of national voting is too diffuse. The plutocrats recognized early this summer that their control of the House was at risk, so they are pouring millions of dollars into the swing district races. ..............

55 districts to flip in a Democratic wave election
By joeknapp

[misterhighwasted]

1. Its the only way to defeat the Republican grip that is hell bent on destroying our US Constitution.

This election is the last chance we will have. Forever.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Win the House and State Legislatures to kill gerrymandering: Permanent Independent Commissions. nt

[misterhighwasted]

8. This election really is the final battle. It is so critical.

You are absolutely correct Bernardo.
State & House legislatures. Permanently end gerrymandering as well as Citizens United (and more).

Time to close the loopholes exploited by the Right to undermine our democracy.
It has been their slow march thru the years & it needs to be stopped asap.

[Hortensis]

25. Don't think it's quite the final battle, Mr. :) We'd have to live

with whatever happened and continue the fight.

But ohmygosh, as you say! And more.

A government committed to equality that isn't afraid and in denial of inevitable changes and huge challenges but takes them on intelligently and bravely, determined to make them work for We the People.

[workinclasszero]

19. Oh Lord could we stop the barbarians this year?

Please, please..please...

[Dawson Leery]

2. HRC +5-6 and above 50 percent

combined with GOTV wins the House.

[lonestarnot]

3. OMG It would be delightful watching them lose all their dough. Go Hillary Go!

All those Congressional work days (110) and all that obstruction and reminders of them should do it if people weren't so stupid.

[Lucinda]

4. KNR

[Maru Kitteh]

5. Si Se Puede!

[Snarkoleptic]

6. Trump's scaring away the few remaining sane R's and wiping out the downballot.

[Coyotl]

11. Trump/Pence are today's personification of Republican obstructionism and the Teahistas.

We need to make sure the electorate sees them as the same thing, the same platform. They own the leader they picked and glorify.

[ailsagirl]

9. Wouldn't it be fantastic to have the House again?

For forty consecutive years Dems ruled the House-- now it's been 18 awful years of repuke rule-- we've got to get it back.



By Taylorluker - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11864957

[Coyotl]

12. Consider how horribly things went after they took the House leading up to 2008.

They own what Bush did to everyone also, they were part of it, the tax cuts for themselves, screwing everyone else.

[ailsagirl]

13. What a disaster-- worse than we could have ever imagined

[NewJeffCT]

38. Democrats had the House after the 2006 elections

until after the 2010 midterms, so for four years. For the few months that they had a super-majority in the Senate, Democrats got a lot of good things done.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

10. We all KNOW what it's going to take.....

WOMEN.

[mopinko]

17. ^^^^this^^^^

women bout to roar.

[mobeau69]

14. HRC +2 in Ohio.

The new Monmouth poll, which surveyed 405 likely voters, was conducted Saturday-Tuesday — making it slightly more recent than the other post-debate poll in the state: a Quinnipiac University survey conducted last Tuesday-Sunday that gave Trump a 5-point lead.

Go Hillz!

[Coyotl]

15. As the ground game continues registering more people in Ohio. Good news.

Ohioans know Pence, that can only help Clinton.

[George II]

16. Let's win the Presidency, let's win the Senate, let's win the House....then on to the Supreme Court!

We can do it, and we HAVE to do it!

[Coyotl]

18. Undoing the Bush Junta is way past due, and we need the majority in Congress to do it.

[socialist_n_TN]

20. You're not going back far enough...........

Undoing the Bush junta is not enough. It's the REAGAN stranglehold on the political class that needs undoing.

[whatthehey]

21. Incredibly unlikely, but hope isn't a bad thing.

[Coyotl]

23. No longer very unlikely, that's the whole point of the story. It is happening with a month to go.

That's an entire month for the trend to improve. The situation is getting better by the day. Trump's crimes and negatives are not going away in the next month, they are compounding and public perception is absorbing just how horrible Trump is. And Trump's platform is the Republican party platform.

[whatthehey]

28. I don't think the average pop vote correlation is that strong though

Maybe it was 20 years ago, but gerrymandering has left us with a trivial number of seats which might be really competitive. About the best hope I have for the House is that rabid Trump fans as opposed to doctrinaire Republicans either ignore down-tickets or remember Trump's earlier denigration of the party. That coupled with his depressing the vote among the remaining Rockefeller Repiblicans might help us a bit, but on the other side all those R-leaning suburban women put off by Trump and wanting to see a female POTUS may very well keep to their R ways in House races. Pickup some seats? Surely. A majority? Just can't see the numbers there I'm afraid.

I will be very happy indeed to be proven wrong if that happens, natch.

[Cosmocat]

51. You are right - this national average spread is VERY specious

As an estimate for the house given gerrymanding.

Literally, Hillary could get every single vote cast for POTUS and Trump none, and my POS R congressman would win by his usual 65+ percent.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. Would be incredible

Hillary needs to bury Trump Sunday night. If she again blows him out she can tie him around the necks of House Rps like an anchor and push them all overboard.

[MFM008]

33. And he won't show

For #3.

[Johnny2X2X]

34. #3 has a FOX moderator

He will show for sure.

[progressoid]

24. Uhm, that seems awfully optimistic.

That map shows two districts in Iowa flipping. Hillary is neck/neck in this state. A five point national win won't do much here.

Unless things dramatically change in the next month, I'd be shocked if we flip both of them.

[davidn3600]

26. Won't happen....there's no way

Here's the reality...

The way the districts are drawn and the way our country is set up geographically, the Democrats cannot win control of the House unless a significant number of Republicans either don't vote or flip parties.

These generic congressional polls and basing the House on a federal election are complete bullshit. The House isn't elected in that way. The House is elected in a by-district basis.

[Cosmocat]

52. Agreed

IF this ends up with a Hillary walk away win, 6 or more points, I have a hard time seeing the House end up any better than a smaller, maybe mid single digit if it is really big win, majority for the Rs.

[Coyotl]

27. 2016 National House Race = Dems 46% versus Rep 37%

Poll Update = Clinton 46%, Trump 39% (Morning Consult 9/30-10/2)

2016 National House Race
Asked of 1778 Likely Voters
Democratic candidate 46%
Republican candidate 37%
Don't Know/No Opinion 17%

Pessimists, note how many voters will still be deciding their House race votes!

[ColemanMaskell]

29. Yes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for posting

Sigh. Prayers ARE answered.

[ananda]

30. That would be great, but what about the Senate?

I'm worried about SCOTUS more than anything else.

[BlueMTexpat]

31. I have been

contributing to the Denise Juneau campaign in MT. https://denisejuneau.com/

It may only be one seat, but it counts! And Juneau is running an excellent campaign from what I can see. I really think that we have a shot - even in so-called "red" MT - and I believe that Hillary has a shot there too, just as I believe that she has a better shot in some of the other "red" western states than the polls currently show.

[Coyotl]

32. The polls are not accounting for the shift in likely voters or the demographic shifts.

And the trends they are ignoring, in part at least, are trends that benefit the Dems. Old people die, new voters enter the pool ...etc.

[NastyRiffraff]

35. Yet another reason to GOTV

The down tickets are just as important as the top ticket this year. That's true of any presidential election but particularly so in this one.

We CAN win the House and the Senate, if we VOTE!

[BainsBane]

36. Now that would bring about change! nt

[SpankMe]

37. The House isn't in play.

Republicans have gerrymandered a near permanent majority there. Plus, they've engineered total control of all 3 branches of government in more than half the states - and then changed rules that will keep them permanently in charge there, also. It's scary.

I think America is headed for a great, generation-long national division. We have to keep the west coast as dark blue as we can to give thinking people a place to live in accordance with their values. The rest of the country - save for New York and one or two other northeast states - will be Christland.

[Coyotl]

39. The House is always in play, with every member up for re-election.

And gerrymandering has its own dangers, especially when they do greedy gerrymandering and over-extend themselves with narrow margins and don't account for the kind of swings in electorate and support we have now, six years after the census.

Wow, don't you travel? Even Texas has more Dems that Republicans, AZ is turning blue, ND has a Dem senator, Russ is winning in Wisconsin. Doom and gllom are republican talking points, intended to suppress the vote. Why are you going there?

[former9thward]

40. False optimism leads to demoralization.

Which is not healthy. You can try to suppress discussion by shouting "republican talking points" but many prefer to be realistic. AZ is expected to increase the number of Rs in the House by one "turning blue" or not.

[Coyotl]

44. False pessimisim leads to defeat. GOTV.

GOTV leads to victory.

[Coyotl]

41. 2016 House Election Interactive Map

Use the House election map and content below to create your 2016 House election forecast. The default view shows districts currently expected to be at least somewhat competitive, as projected by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use the 'Mine' column to adjust your rating. Select a state to see all Districts (including 'safe seats') in that state.

[Coyotl]

42. Cook: 2016 House Race Ratings for October 4, 2016

2016 House Race Ratings for October 4, 2016

Summary

Solid Seats: 202 Rep, 177 Dem

Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 7 Dem

Toss Up or Worse: 20 Rep, 4 Dem


Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged.

Lean: These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.

Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.

[dbackjon]

43. In Arizona we need to hold CD 1 and take CD 2

CD 1 leans Democratic, Ann Kirkpatrick's seat (she is running for Senate). GOP is running Arpaio wanna-be Paul Babeu. Tom O'Halleran looks to keep it blue
CD 2 is held by GOP Martha McSally. This is Gabby Giffords' old seat. Matt Heinz needs our help to win!

[Warren DeMontague]

45. I would be one happy fuckin' camper if that were to happen.

I think it's a longshot, but I certainly wouldn't complain.

[Coyotl]

46. Thanks Donald.

[Coyotl]

47. Now 16 of 54 GOP senators not supporting Trump. Republicans in a Catch 22, no win conundrum, if

Last edited Sun Oct 9, 2016, 08:09 AM - Edit history (1)

you don't denounce Trump, you lose, if you denounce Trump his supporters reject you and you lose the election and save face.

The House is so much more in play this week than last, it is really remarkable. This was the swiftest shift in political fortunes I've witnessed, a concession of the Presidency race for all practical purposes. But a Clinton victory was going to happen anyway. What has really shifted is the overall picture for the Republican party. Now every candidate has to declare their position on Trump. For Republicans, there is no winning that inevitablity.

[Coyotl]

48. House Democrats believe Trump troubles give them real shot at retaking majority

[center]http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141594177

[cynatnite]

49. If she can get a double digit win over Trump, then I think the chances are good...

It's still a tough road with many districts gerrymandered in favor of the repubs.

Will hope for the best on election day.

[Coyotl]

50. What a five-point shift could do = 455-83

What a five-point shift could do = 455-83
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512496668

[Gothmog]

53. Trump may turn the House blue all by himself

[Il_Coniglietto]

54. Backlash from Trump supporters against GOP Reps?

If more of the Republican leadership backs away from Trump, maybe some of his angry supporters won't vote down ticket in protest. His base of support is less GOP ride-or-die and more Tea Party reactionary after all.

[Coyotl]

55. This is happening. McCain is one of the people the Trump Tea party is lamblasting.

Catch 22 for Republicans, a no win situation. Thank you Donald.

[Coyotl]

56. Clinton Shifts Message as She Eyes Congressional Takeover

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141600689

Clinton Shifts Message as She Eyes Congressional Takeover
by Alex Seitz-Wald

... with Trump underwater in almost every poll and Republicans retreating from him, Clinton's campaign and its surrogates are aligning their own message with that of down-ballot Democrats.

"Donald Trump is becoming more unhinged by the day, and that is increasing prospects for Democrats further down the ballot," Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Monday while announcing millions of dollars in new aid for House and Senate candidates. ......

[lillypaddle]

57. Wouldn't that be sweet???

[djg21]

58. I'm not buying it.

Last edited Tue Oct 18, 2016, 10:43 AM - Edit history (1)

The Dems certainly will make gains, but I don't think it probable that we can win the 30 additional seats necessary to gain contro of the House. My sense is that there will be a lot more ticket-splitting than in recent elections, with many Republicans and Independents voting for Hillary, or not casting a vote for President at all, and then voting Republican down ticket. I truly hope I'm wrong, but 30 seats is a stretch. The Senate on the other hand, is looking bright.

[Coyotl]

59. dKos House Race Ratings and House Rating Changes

Congress has the largest Republican majority since 1930, thanks to gerrymandering, while the popular vote is majority Democratic.

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/house

3 Likely D = CA-36, CA-52, MD-06
5 Lean D = CA-07, CA-24, FL-13, NV-04, NY-03
18 Tossup = AZ-01, CO-06, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01, IL-10, MI-01, MN-02, MN-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-05, NV-03, NY-19, NY-22, NY-24, PA-08, TX-23

Republicans hold 247 of 435 seats, so picking up all of these (26) would be insufficient. However, the situation remains in flux and the trend with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket is a train wreck. The Trump locomotive (pun intended) has gone over the cliff and all the cars are attached. Another factor is turnout and polling has not been reliable on likely voters with a Republican bias, as seen in the Obama-Romney polls. Plus, registration continues in some states as of this writing so the current electoral demographic isn't fully accounted for yet in polling. There is a surge in new voters and that seems to be an anti-Trump dynamic. We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic, especially women voters. What we need is the ground game to make it happen, the possibility is definite.

[Sunlei]

60. Donald Trump took Republican bait and stupidly attacks only Ryan. Speaker Ryan's not running.