538: Democrats 73% chance of winning control of the Senate

[ColemanMaskell]

Last edited Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:50 AM - Edit history (1)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

538 Polls-Plus forecast

Who will win the Senate?

Chance of winning control
Democrats
73.8%

Republicans
26.2%

[chillfactor]

1. one can at least realistically hope now

bet the turtle is crapping his pants

[markd315]

2. Reason for this change:

New MO state poll from Google Consumer Surveys dropped Oct 14th and showed Kander up 7 (adjusted to 6) and swung the race from a 37 to 56% chance of victory. Since it's the senate one seat will make the difference and MO could be it which is why we're seeing this 8.7% uptick in national odds.

Challenger McGinty in PA also got a good poll by Selzer n co that swung his odds 4% and Ross is nearing a tie in NC.

Good shit all around. Too bad about Florida though, I kinda care which way FL goes and Murphy is not getting anywhere.

[ColemanMaskell]

6. au contraire on Florida - another post described in detail Murphy pounding Rubio in debate

[4lbs]

7. If the debate performance makes a difference, then we'll probably see the results in polls

at the end of the week.

[rpannier]

10. Is there anything that shows it made a difference?

Most polls over the past few weeks have been showing Rubio extending his lead

[Doodley]

4. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving!

[sheshe2]

5. VOTE!

[yortsed snacilbuper]

8. Vote,

like your life depended on it.

[SunSeeker]

9. K & R

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

11. Don't fuck this up, don't fuck this up, don't fuck this up.