# 2016 Postmortem

Related: About this forum# 538: Democrats 73% chance of winning control of the Senate

Last edited Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:50 AM - Edit history (1)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast538 Polls-Plus forecast

**Who will win the Senate?**

Chance of winning control

**Democrats**

73.8%

73.8%

Republicans

26.2%

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#### chillfactor

(7,672 posts)bet the turtle is crapping his pants

#### markd315

(12 posts)New MO state poll from Google Consumer Surveys dropped Oct 14th and showed Kander up 7 (adjusted to 6) and swung the race from a 37 to 56% chance of victory. Since it's the senate one seat will make the difference and MO could be it which is why we're seeing this 8.7% uptick in national odds.

Challenger McGinty in PA also got a good poll by Selzer n co that swung his odds 4% and Ross is nearing a tie in NC.

Good shit all around. Too bad about Florida though, I kinda care which way FL goes and Murphy is not getting anywhere.

#### ColemanMaskell

(783 posts)#### 4lbs

(7,196 posts)at the end of the week.

#### rpannier

(24,503 posts)Most polls over the past few weeks have been showing Rubio extending his lead

#### Doodley

(9,950 posts)#### sheshe2

(86,073 posts)#### yortsed snacilbuper

(7,947 posts)like your life depended on it.