Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:10 AM

538: Democrats 73% chance of winning control of the Senate

Last edited Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:50 AM - Edit history (1)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

538 Polls-Plus forecast

Who will win the Senate?

Chance of winning control
Democrats
73.8%

Republicans
26.2%

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10 replies	Author	Time	Post
538: Democrats 73% chance of winning control of the Senate (Original post)	ColemanMaskell	Oct 2016	OP
one can at least realistically hope now	chillfactor	Oct 2016	#1
Reason for this change:	markd315	Oct 2016	#2
au contraire on Florida - another post described in detail Murphy pounding Rubio in debate	ColemanMaskell	Oct 2016	#6
If the debate performance makes a difference, then we'll probably see the results in polls	4lbs	Oct 2016	#7
Is there anything that shows it made a difference?	rpannier	Oct 2016	#10
Trump is the gift that keeps on giving!	Doodley	Oct 2016	#4
VOTE!	sheshe2	Oct 2016	#5
Vote,	yortsed snacilbuper	Oct 2016	#8
K & R	SunSeeker	Oct 2016	#9
Don't fuck this up, don't fuck this up, don't fuck this up.	Sen. Walter Sobchak	Oct 2016	#11

Response to ColemanMaskell (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:28 AM

chillfactor (7,249 posts)

1. one can at least realistically hope now

bet the turtle is crapping his pants

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Response to ColemanMaskell (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:38 AM

markd315 (12 posts)

2. Reason for this change:

New MO state poll from Google Consumer Surveys dropped Oct 14th and showed Kander up 7 (adjusted to 6) and swung the race from a 37 to 56% chance of victory. Since it's the senate one seat will make the difference and MO could be it which is why we're seeing this 8.7% uptick in national odds.

Challenger McGinty in PA also got a good poll by Selzer n co that swung his odds 4% and Ross is nearing a tie in NC.

Good shit all around. Too bad about Florida though, I kinda care which way FL goes and Murphy is not getting anywhere.

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Response to markd315 (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 12:57 AM

ColemanMaskell (783 posts)