2016 Postmortem

tgards79

(1,415 posts) Fri Oct 21, 2016, 01:15 PM Oct 2016

BTRTN Senate/House Snapshot #6: Dems Squeak Ahead in Control of Senate, Now "Lead" 50/50

Donald Trump may be in free fall, but that does not mean down-ballot races are following suit. But it does not take much to tip the balance in the unbelievably close race to control the Senate, and the Dems have snuck ahead (assuming they only need 50 seats with a Clinton win):
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/10/btrtn-senatehouse-snapshot-6-dems.html

6 replies

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BTRTN Senate/House Snapshot #6: Dems Squeak Ahead in Control of Senate, Now "Lead" 50/50 (Original Post) tgards79 Oct 2016 OP

New Florida poll... tgards79 Oct 2016 #1

The debate and Obama's comments seemed to have helped Murphy. Alexander Oct 2016 #2

FAN-tastic. No one like him - Dem or Repuke should win when they Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #4

Ba-Bye Turtle !! Don't let the door hit you in the ass Laura PourMeADrink Oct 2016 #3

Great analysis! reggieandlee Oct 2016 #5

Most polls are outdated and changing with a Dem wave. Sources of current data: Coyotl Oct 2016 #6

tgards79

(1,415 posts)

1. New Florida poll...

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 05:22 PM

Oct 2016

Rubio tied in Florida....last four polls show Rubio +8, +5, +3, 0, in that order.

Alexander

(15,318 posts)

2. The debate and Obama's comments seemed to have helped Murphy.

Reply to tgards79 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:38 PM

Oct 2016

Hopefully the national party puts their resources into this race. It seems winnable now.

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)

4. FAN-tastic. No one like him - Dem or Repuke should win when they

Reply to tgards79 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:43 PM

Oct 2016

specifically said they hated being in the senate and never showed up. If people vote for him they are off their rocker

Besides, he's a liar - lied about his own parents escaping Castro before Castro

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)

3. Ba-Bye Turtle !! Don't let the door hit you in the ass

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:41 PM

Oct 2016

reggieandlee

(778 posts)

5. Great analysis!

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 08:39 PM

Oct 2016

Big opportunity to get the Senate. Clinton should read this and direct resources accordingly...

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

6. Most polls are outdated and changing with a Dem wave. Sources of current data:

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:08 PM

Oct 2016

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/senate

NY Times 2016 Senate Election Forecast
By JOSH KATZ UPDATED an hour ago
The Democrats have a 65% chance of winning the Senate.
Last updated Friday, October 21
50 50 Even * 22% Likeliest
51 49 + 2 Dem. 20%
52 48 + 4 Dem. 13%

538: Who will win the Senate?
Chance of winning control Democrats 68.2%

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