How Does Everyone KNOW How People Are Voting In The Early Elections???

[MagickMuffin]

My hubby is working the early elections and there is no way to tell who anyone is voting for unless they scream out they are voting for Trump, which has happened.

How does DU know how people are voting???


Just curious.

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. DU doesn't

In some states, you can tell the registration of people who have already voted.

People are asssuming D registrations who have voted voted for the D candidate.

Not a single vote is counted until the polls close.

[RKP5637]

3. Thanks! I was wondering about that on MSM too, this cleared it up for me! n/t

[MagickMuffin]

6. I work the General Elections as the Alternate Judge

We never know how anyone votes at my precinct. However, since I have been the alternate judge starting in 08 I can "tell" who most people are voting for.

I'm not sure here in Texas if the votes are actually counted until election day!

[Xipe Totec]

2. Party affiliation of voters is a proxy for voter preferences.

So you count how many registered Democrats are voting, how many registered Republicans are voting, and you draw inferences from that.

[jberryhill]

4. By using math

If you know that 90% of D's are voting for Hillary, then you can keep track of how many D's have voted.

Same goes for age groups and gender if that information is available.

[elleng]

5. We don't;

guessing/assuming, based on party registration.

[sofa king]

8. If I may add...

I think that the error in these estimates is on our side this time around, too.

"Democrats for Trump" is simply not a thing, and probably well inside of the margin of error. Far too many of us actually remember who Benito Mussolini actually was to vote for his stupider, coke-addled clone.

"Republicans AGAINST Trump," however, most certainly is a thing, and is likely to express itself in a number of ways: votes for Mrs. Clinton; votes squandered on third-parties or write-ins; or non-participation in the election. We know what the easiest of those routes is, and I'm crossing fingers for it.

There is another wrinkle to it, which is that several (mostly Republican) states appear to have rules which state that a ballot cast for a non-registered write-in candidate is considered erroneous and not counted at all. I'm not sure if I heard the news story correctly, but that could mean that protest votes negate the entire ballot, including votes for Republican undercard candidates. That could prove to be a devastating blow to Republican Congressional candidates as well.

[wishstar]

7. Some official pollsters ask early voters about their party affiliation and who they voted for

Several of the polls ask for party affiliation of all respondents and who they are voting for, and get a pretty good idea how many Dems will vote for Trump and how many Repubs will vote Clinton.

But it is inexact and just informed guesswork at this point

[Gothmog]

9. There are two ways

I can tell about Texas. One way is to look to see if the voters voted in either the Democratic or Republican primaries. Here is an example of someone doing this type of analysis https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/Early_Voting_Analysis_Report_Day_2.pdf In addition one can pull the profiles of all voters from the VAN and use the DNC modeling program to get a feel as how the voted. Neither method is 100% but gives the party a feel as to who has voted.

I am friends with a candidate in my county who has look at the early voters in his race and the VAN/DNC formula shows that the early vote through day 2 was 52% Democratic and 48% Republican.

Early vote ends in Texas on Nov. 4 and so the state party people can spend the weekend updating call lists to exclude people voted early and to guess where they stand based on the methods described above.

In Texas, the results of the early vote is announced shortly after the polls closed.

I hope that this helps

[MagickMuffin]

10. Thanks for sharing! Tarrant County Precinct Chair here };¬)

Cool analysis. We still have work to do in Tarrant County.

Calling my precinct has been rewarding but mostly frustrating.

[Gothmog]

11. I am helping run voter protection statewide

Are your judges allowing people to vote without ids under the court ruling? We still have a couple of counties who are resisting following the court order.

If you have issues call 1-844-TXVOTES. This is a group formed by Clinton campaign, the Texas Victory Leadership Council and Battleground Texas

[MagickMuffin]

13. Hubby had an issue yesterday at his polling location in Keller

His counter clerks wanted anyone not having a ID to vote a provisional ballot. He told her that was incorrect. The voter ended up leaving without voting.

He found the info in his training manual this morning and shared it with everyone. One of the interpreters was telling voters dead people were voting

I called the Tarrant County elections office on Tuesday because they were letting people vote who had "make America great again" hats. I told them that slogan is associated with Trump. Voters were extremely rude and "nasty" screaming at the election officials.

[Gothmog]

15. Please call this into the hotline - 1-844-TXVOTES

We are working to correct these issues

[MagickMuffin]

16. I can call tomorrow

Did I speak to the elections office and the early voting admin said she would take care of the issue I reported on Tuesday. And said she hoped I wouldn't have to call back. I did call her today but didn't want to leave a voice mail.

Thx for the info.

[LisaL]

12. Who says DU know how the people are voting?

[NCTraveler]

14. Assumptions off limited releases. Look at this link for an example.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats