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Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:05 PM

 

Remington Research polls (the only ones showing Trump surging) are completely skewed Rethug SHITE

I use a RW source to prove it, as it was the only site i could find that addressed their methodologies.

Even THEY admit Remington is SHITE.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/26/gop-pollster-trump-4-oh-back-3-pa/

Don’t like polls from media outlets and academic institutions? Meet Remington Research, which regularly conducts polls for Axiom Strategies, a Republican-oriented consultancy. Both were founded by Jeff Roe, a longtime GOP strategist who has worked at times for Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz, specifically on his presidential bid this cycle. Axiom has a very good success rate in Congressional elections (81% of its clients have won their elections as of early 2016), and Roe got a great deal of the credit for Cruz’ surprise win in the Iowa caucuses in February.

Remington has turned its focus to swing-state polling, and finds Donald Trump up in one key state and within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in another. Both, however, raise questions about reliability.

Let’s start with Ohio, where Remington finds Trump leading by four points, 46/42. In order to get there, Remington starts off with a poll sample that has an R+9 partisan composition (34/43/23). That’s, um, a very optimistic election turnout model for Ohio. George W. Bush won the state in 2004 by three points while the split was even at 37/37/26. In 2012, the most recent presidential election, Ohio had a D+7 turnout model at 38/31/31. Even with John Kasich running against the utterly inept Ed Fitzgerald in the 2014 midterms, the GOP edge in turnout was only four points at 32/36/32.

The issue of partisan composition of samples gets overused as a credibility argument, but this is notable for three reasons. One, it posits a sixteen-point swing in the gap in turnout model from the previous presidential election, which seems highly unlikely. Second, this is precisely the issue that Trump’s supporters make when dismissing other polls. Third, with an R+9 turnout model in a state that traditionally leans GOP, we should see a much larger lead if Trump really is generating that kind of turnout among Republican voters — especially if he’s winning Hamilton County (Cincinnati) by 13 points and getting 19% of the African-American vote. Those should add up to a Kasich-scale landslide, not a just-outside-the-MoE lead.


Pennsylvania’s results seem a little more credible, but still have issues. Hillary leads 45/42, but only leads in Philadelphia by 56/32, a county won by Obama 85/14 on his way to a 5-point win in 2012. Again, Remington has Trump winning a much higher percentage of the African-American vote than any Republican has in decades (29%, compared to Romney’s 7% and George W. Bush’s 16%). Those two data points alone suggest that Trump should be doing better than 42% overall, a lower figure than either Romney or Bush eventually got. The partisan breakdown in this poll is much more reasonable (D+6, 48/42/10), but Hillary’s thin six-point margin among women seems a little suspect, too.

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:09 PM

1. Never heard of them.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:13 PM

4. Trump and his legion of goons and talking heads on all the us cable networks

 

are trumpeting them like they're the new Rosetta stone.

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:11 PM

2. Thanks! I didn't know that about Remington!

Anything involving Jeff Roe is automatically suspicious!

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:13 PM

3. Interesting

 

It's interesting because 538 lists Remington as among the pollsters they use while DailyKos for example does not.

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Response to semby2 (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:15 PM

6. Real Clear Politics is unfortunately now including this shit in their overall

 

averages. Thus fucking it all up.

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Response to semby2 (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:30 PM

7. I dont see Remington on this this

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Response to pkdu (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:34 PM

9. They include it here, in the Ohio projection.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

It's NOT RATED, however. Yet Silver and the gang give that recent Remington poll the most weight!

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:14 PM

5. I-i-i-i don't this outfit makes firearms.

 

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Original post)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:30 PM

8. IOW - their polls are complete garbage

I already looked at them with a jaundiced eye, now I'll simply ignore them.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:41 PM

10. They are by far the number one driver of the fake horse race that emerged only a couple days ago

 

The LA Times bullshit and Rasmussen bullshit national polls never even pretended to claim that he was winning ANY of the crucial swing states, it was just skewed national totals.

I have been all over all the major cable stations and reading Trump friendly shit, and listening to his bullshit speeches and his stooges bullshit, and ONE HUNDRED % of their spin that he is surging in swing states is based off Remington polls only.

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:48 PM

11. Glad I don't watch the giddy "how do we fill this airtime" daily cable shitfest

I watch select shows starting at 8PM EST and stopping at 11PM. The rest is fake hogwash talk.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 06:14 PM

12. It's all over websites too, its the only thing that is breaking Trump's way (in terms of news) other

 

than more stupid email leaks, which is a yawn. The fact these polls are bogus and YET are being spun this hard is a smoking gun of the false, contrived horse race meme that so many on both sides actually deny exists (and many accept, to be fair).

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 06:16 PM

13. Republican pollsters have been desperately trying to make this race seem much closer

It's rather disturbing that they can get away with this shit, yet they do it every cycle.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 06:21 PM

14. well, I agree in terms of the national totals, such as LA Times poll

 

and Rasmussen, which are meankngless in terms of actual EV counts, but these bogus swing state polls are the first late game switchers that have gained traction with so many. It drives me crazy that RCP is using them, as RCP is the go to average poll of polls that so so many use.

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Response to Grey Lemercier (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 27, 2016, 08:00 PM

15. RCP is a Republican site

I don't like going there any more after seeing the stuff they support.

I did find this article interesting though: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

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