I'm just not that worked up about this email thing yet. I want to see whether it moves the polls.

[stevenleser]

I have some doubts that it will. And if additional information comes out that it is a big bag of nothing, like this article suggests, http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-fbi-clinton-email-probe-20161028-story.html, in particular...

The emails were not to or from Clinton, and contained information that appeared to be more of what agents had already uncovered, the official said, but in an abundance of caution, they felt they needed to further scrutinize them.

...any impact will be blunted. We'll have to see. Another thing that mitigates any potential impact is that a lot of people have already voted.

[vadermike]

1. But

Those things take time and we don't have time. Trumpets will be voting 21b masse. Can we stop them.in time ? That's the question. Cause if the media harps and harps on this email thing. How do fight it?

[stevenleser]

3. I think people voting in this election have already taken into account Hillary's emails and Trumps

sexism.

It would take an exceptionally spectacular revelation on either for it to move the race and I don't think this is it.

For instance, folks I encounter who are voting Trump could see another 50 women come forward saying the same things the last 12 have said and it would not change their vote.

[getagrip_already]

2. just remember the polls would tighten without any surprises......

They always do as the election approaches. The pollsters don't want to end up as being very wrong outside of the pack when results are in.

Look back at previous elections. The polls tighten up within a few points of unity, and usually within margins of error.

It would happen no matter what else was happening.

[stevenleser]

6. Agreed and I think that was in process already. Nate and others said there was a very slight

tightening in the race, by 1% from 7% to 6% in the week leading up to Friday.

I really doubt Friday's news changes the dynamic of the race very much. We will start to see any effect on Tuesday. I'm waiting until then to determine whether there is reason to be concerned.

[davekriss]

4. Clinton has already dropped 7 points

On 538, polls-plus has dropped from her peak 84% win probability to 76.9% right now. I think she's still going to win, but it may impact down-stream races by motivating some on the right to vote.

[stevenleser]

5. And nothing I have seen attributes that to the emails, because there is no data out on it yet.

That percentage is a percentage of the times Hillary and Trump win the election in 10,000 simulations based on the data 538 has.

There was a slight tightening (by 1% from 7% to 6%) in the race prior to the revelations on Friday. That is what changed the percentages.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. It has to move the polls

34% in the ABC poll said they were less likely to support Hillary based on this development.

Now, you can adjust that 34% based on demographic or sampling or timing or whatever. You can't adjust it to nothing. 34% is a massive number. This was a massive negative development. Anybody who said emails were already baked into the number simply has no comprehension of situational impact.

The troubling aspect was that independents were moving slightly toward Trump before this issue broke. Now they may be pushed further in that direction.

Momentum allows Trump to sound like a winner, even if he's still losing. That means his messages start to click. Today I heard him ramble about improving health care. Obviously that is a blatant lie. He'll eliminate health care for 20 million Americans.

But details don't matter, as I posted last night. A few big picture words enter the public mindset and Comey allowed those words to favor Trump in the late going. Now we're in for a real scare.

[Rex]

9. I haven't been worked up by any of these fake scandal thrown HRC's way. It's all weak garbage.

After watching her make a mockery out of the Benghazi witch hunt, I knew there was nothing they could do to stop her. Idiots on the alt-right think people don't realize this was ANOTHER attempt at disrupting THEIR right to vote!

Keep pissing people off GOP, evidently you don't really want anyone voting for you! Idiots, their stupidity will lead to their downfall.

[lillypaddle]

10. A calm voice

thanks, we needed that.