***Jon Ralston's NV update this morning: "Trump is dead. GOP in big trouble"***

[highplainsdem]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794905326642302976

Jon Ralston
?@RalstonReports

Final (almost) NV early #s are in:
Trump is dead.
GOP in big trouble in #nvsen, two House seats and #nvleg control.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

-snip-

[rollin74]

1. Nevada is staying BLUE!

[lonestarnot]

68. Squeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

87. That's because the GOP tossed the Country Western fans under Romney's bus.

[duffyduff]

2. Great news. Ralston knows what he is talking about.

Nevada has picked the winner of every presidential election from 1964 onwards.

[Thor_MN]

104. The Alabama-LSU game has done so from 1984 on.

An Alabama win has preceded a Democratic Presidential win in election years.

Last night, 10-0 Bama. Roll Tide!! (If I hadn't heard that before the game, I would not have cared about two southern Red State teams.)

[randome]

3. This is what I want to hear on Wednesday:

"Donald Trump and the GOP's incompetence during this election should give us all pause for the future. This country works best with more than one option for political parties. We implore the GOP to get its act together so we can keep true to the spirit of Democracy."

Or words to that effect.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

[BlueCaliDem]

6. I agree. Our country *needs* two strong political Parties, but until the GOP get their shiite

together, the Democratic Party has to take over.

[Gore1FL]

33. Of those two, I'd prefer one be the Democrats, and the other one be to the left of that. nt

[AllyCat]

95. Oh yeah.

[Beartracks]

100. Two strong, *reality-based* parties.

That actually have mutual respect for eachother.

An American can dream, can't he?

=======================

[Wounded Bear]

10. I could support a sentiment like that...

I've been called a blind partisan in other venues for years because of my firm anti-Repub stance. Mostly, it comes from so-called independents who generally voted straight Repub. I'm not really a yellow dog Democrat, and I kind of don't like the idea of blind party loyalty. That too often leads to the kind of crap that Repubs are going through now.

Yes, I voted all blue this election cycle, but I wouldn't mind getting to a time when I actually could hear two intelligent sides to discussions of our problems and suggested solutions. The Repubs have offered none of that for years. I'm not sure I will see it in my lifetime, I don't have that many years left.

[stopbush]

49. We need two parties. How about the Ds and a more-progressive party

as that second party?

[randome]

50. You would think we'd be there by now, right?

If anyone at the RNC has a smidgen of political awareness, they know that paying attention to the needs of Hispanics and minorities is the only way to build a winning coalition now that the old white man demographic is dying out.

Yet they threw away their own 'postmortem' about how to do that. It boggles the mind sometimes. It's like they prefer to live in the gutter, where they are now.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

[ChairmanAgnostic]

51. We need not two parties, but 3,4 maybe 5.

Across the range of political ideas. Having two large, obese, unresponsive, and often co-opted parties is bad enough. But when one of them is hijacked by TeaBaggers, and the other is afraid of its own shadow, the two party system simply does not work.

More parties would free up people to vote their conscience, it would allow politicians to make deals - which is the whole purpose of political activity. horsetrading. Deal making. Compromise.

The system is not working and it has been stifled by design. That cannot last.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

66. Ideally that might be nice, 3, 4, 5 political parties.

And that might work out just fine for state legislatures and for the House and Senate. But given the way the President is elected, not by popular vote, not by the person who is head of the party that can put together a coalition in the House and Senate, but indirectly via the Electoral College, we'd be guaranteed a genuinely minority President, which would make it almost impossible for that person to lead the country.

We don't have a parliamentary system as does all of Europe.

What we do need is a much stronger Left in this country.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

71. We have the numbers, we have the yute.

We do not have leaders with enough spine. But, as bernie showed the world, the interest is there and the conservobots are losing numbers. Especially the ultra-christian bible beating bastards. Churches are empty. Donations are down. There is almost no mega church construction these days.

The future is ours, assuming that the fascists don't burn our country down first.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

75. What in the world is the yute?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

86. My cousin vinnie's "youth"

Last edited Sat Nov 5, 2016, 10:30 PM - Edit history (1)

Dim spell cvecher

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

97. Oh. Thank you for clarifying.

[Thor_MN]

105. Love it.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

113. 2 utes vs. 2 Corinthians.

[Demsrule86]

107. I hear this all the time...

It is so much nonsense...multiple parties keeps conservatives in power...think about it. Look at Europe. We would end up being run by a government elected by a small minority of Americans...always was a bad idea.

[Hortensis]

111. Yup. And the deals the minor leaders make to

have a share of power frequently betray their members.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

114. Yet today's reality is the TeaBaggers

Have the House by the throat.

How is that different?

[Demsrule86]

106. Please stop. The D's are progressive.

How about you realize (and others) that every bit of progressive policy came from the Democrats...how about we support Democrats in all elections.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

93. +1 Trump & GOP must be crushed to prevent Trump 2.0 in 2020 & to commit GOP to meaningful reform. nt

[smirkymonkey]

4. K&R

[AgadorSparticus]

5. Fantastic!!! Way to go Nevada!

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Must win for Orange Hitler

NV, FL, IA, AZ, NC, OH, and NV are all must win states for aTrump.

[Big_K]

30. Plus...

... Western Poland, Czechoslovakia, France, Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Yugoslavia, Luxembourg, Greece, Norway, and a bit of Russia (until it snows).

[SunSeeker]

39. LOL

[calimary]

99. Welcome to DU, Big_K!

I would assume Donald's got a lock on Russia. Or, rather, they've got a lock on him.

[BlueCaliDem]

8. Fantastic news! We don't lose Harry Reid's seat AND NV stays BLUE! eom

[Cha]

16. I read not too long ago that we were probably going to lose Harry's seat..

That was before the sleeping giant woke up and Latinos went out en masse to vote for Hillary and Catherine Cortez Masto!

Did trump campaign much in Nevada.. anyone know?

Aloha, BlueCali

[BlueCaliDem]

32. Heard that, too, and initially panicked - for about 1 second. Then I remembered this is Harry Reid's

seat. NO WAY will he allow his seat to go Republican! He didn't in 2010 when M$M polls showed him with double digits behind "barter-with-chickens-for-health-care-needs" Angle. In the end, he won his seat with 50.3% of the vote.

I've been saying it for some time now: Latino Americans are rescuing this country - and us - from a Trumpanzee presidency and a Republican takeover of our Gov't. Their motive for doing so is purely out of anger toward Trump for his racist proclamations about Mexicans and other Latinos, but that's a-okay with me!

Aloha, Cha!

Did trump campaign much in Nevada.. anyone know?

I know he is campaigning in NV today, but I don't know if he's done much before.

[Cha]

41. Yeah Reno, now he comes.. I just found this..

Republicans In Turmoil As Trump Abruptly Cancels Campaign Events In Three States

Donald Trump has abruptly canceled scheduled campaign events in Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada as questions grow over what is going on with the Republican nominee's campaign.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/22/republicans-turmoil-trump-abruptly-cancels-campaign-events-states.html

[mobeau69]

55. The dateline on your link is August 22. n/t

[Cha]

61. Yes, I know

[BlueCaliDem]

56. Oh wow! This doesn't look good for the Tangerine-Tyrant's and GOP's hopes for a win for president &

congressional seats!

But it's GOOD NEWS for us! WoooHOOOOO!

[Cha]

62. Well, like it was mentioned it's from August 22.. but he still

canceled.

Then there's this.. I remember now about the way he pronounced "Nevada"

Donald Trump Screws Up Pronunciation Of ‘Nevada’ At Campaign Rally In Reno

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/05/donald-trump-screws-pronunciation-nevada-campaign-rally-reno.html

And, then there's THIS!

Why Donald Trump is betting on Nevada

Las Vegas (CNN) — Donald Trump returns to Nevada Wednesday for the final presidential debate in a state that is critical to his path to the White House -- and one where he has remained tied with Hillary Clinton despite all the turmoil rocking his campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/nevada-2016-election-results/

[JNelson6563]

57. Oooh! Yummy!

Thanks for that tasty tidbit Cha!

[Cha]

63. Hi Julie! There's more... that was from August 22 and..

then there's this.. I remember now about the way he pronounced "Nevada"

Donald Trump Screws Up Pronunciation Of ‘Nevada’ At Campaign Rally In Reno

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/05/donald-trump-screws-pronunciation-nevada-campaign-rally-reno.html

And, then there's THIS!

Why Donald Trump is betting on Nevada

Las Vegas (CNN) — Donald Trump returns to Nevada Wednesday for the final presidential debate in a state that is critical to his path to the White House -- and one where he has remained tied with Hillary Clinton despite all the turmoil rocking his campaign.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/nevada-2016-election-results/

[regnaD kciN]

82. Oregon???

If there are any states that have been completely out-of-reach for him from Day One, all three Pacific coast states would surely qualify.

[GulfCoast66]

64. He can't even pronounce the states name

Correctly. Then told them they were wrong!

[Cha]

65. Right.. it all came back.. I just did a link to it..

Donald Trump Screws Up Pronunciation Of ‘Nevada’ At Campaign Rally In Reno

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/05/donald-trump-screws-pronunciation-nevada-campaign-rally-reno.html

[Demsrule86]

9. Thank you Nevada...

You are awesome.

[aaaaaa5a]

12. With Nevada locked down, someone show me how Trump gets to 270.

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/xPK4X"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/xPK4X">270toWin.com</a></small></div>
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________


With this map I give Trump all of the battle-ground states including New Hampshire. I also give him Maine's rural congressional district and the Omaha congressional district in Nebraska.

Even under this extreme *best case scenario* for Trump, he still comes up short. With this firewall in Nevada, once Pennsylvania is called for Clinton Tuesday night, the election is over.


Go ahead and try. Please, anyone give me a realistic path to 270 for Trump without Nevada. Even Trump victories in FL, OH, NC and NH will not be enough.

[Foggyhill]

13. Supposedly Michigan is "soft"; only way It can happen (but he's not getting florida so hey).

[aaaaaa5a]

17. They said that in 2012.

Remember Romney in the last days of the election suddenly campaigning in PA, MI, WI and even MN? Its called searching for a state because the GOP just realized they don't have enough electoral votes to win. This is now the third year in a row a GOP candidate has made a last second play for the midwest.

Secondly, the midwest states are winner take all. Hillary only has to carry WI, MI and PA by 1 vote. She has the cushion to do that.

Thirdly, this scenario assumes, HRC does NOT win NC or FL, two states where she is leading. Trump can't trade states. He must win them all.

This election is over.

Please everyone just do their part and vote.

[Foggyhill]

19. I wasn't actually agreeing it was soft, I'm saying that's what I saw on Politico

That's his only way there really, even if he wins florida and north carolina and Ohio.

He's got a decent chance for Ohio, will be close, but the Latino vote will kill him in Florida.

[aaaaaa5a]

24. +1. I agree. We are on the same page.

You actually can see the Democratic strength across the electoral map by looking at OH. It was just a few years ago (2004, 2008) that OH was the "end all, be all" to Presidential elections. To be President you basically had to run like you were campaigning to be the Governor of OH.

Today, the blue wall is so strong, HRC can lose OH and not even break a sweat. I am amazed at the lack of emphasis on the state. Its still a must win for the GOP. But for the Dems, its just another casual battle ground state.

HRC is in a very good spot to be President of the USA.

[ILFightinDem]

28. Good work on that map (and it'll look better than that come Tuesday night)

Breathing easier now that I've seen that and read Ralston's accounting. He knows that state very well.

Really happy to keep Harry's seat, as well. Duckworth has ours in hand. Two to go (a little worried about WI right now).

On edit: Hey - my 50th post. Only took 12 years or so...LOL

[mountain grammy]

44. Hoping for a lot more blue than this map

but I know this is Trump's best case scenario."

I'm singing Landslide until Tuesday.. Go Hillary!

[Coventina]

14. 538 right now has it red

Bottom line, I'm a nervous wreck until Tuesday night...

[Foggyhill]

15. 538 doesn't look at actual voters which is idiotic.

[aaaaaa5a]

20. 538 is looking more ridiculous by the day. I don't know why its hyped up so much here.

There are a lot of guru sites that aggregate polling results. 538 isn't the only one. ALL of the other sites have HRC as the crushing favorite.

I like Sam Wang. His model has proven to be very accurate.

538 and MSNBC are celebrated here all the time. I have NEVER understood this.

[ToxMarz]

38. Sam Wang has Nevada toss up right now

538 has Nevada red by 0.5%, they don't do toss up.

Pretty much the same.

[duffyduff]

77. It is NOT a "tossup."

It will go Democratic.

Jon Ralston knows FAR more about Nevada politics than any of these probability gurus.

[ToxMarz]

92. GREAT! But that's not what my comment was about

Thanks!

[ecstatic]

101. Lol! nt

[Demsrule86]

108. No way to measure the early vote in any poll.

[rtracey]

40. 538

I love 538, but Nate Silver even admitted his analytic are off, because of polling and the fact that early voting has really put a different scope on things. Early voting and mail in voting allows the groups that may be afraid of cretinous little dicked gun toters who may show up at polls. This allowed the large Latino community to get their voices heard.

[Dem2]

21. I do hope he's right!

He's certainly confident about his numbers!

[tevolit]

23. Hispanic Turnout is Bad?

If Nevada Hispanic Turnout is so good, why is the Dem portion of the Early and Mail-in Vote lower than in 2012 when Hispanics make up about 30% of the Dems and only 10% of the Rep and 18% of the Others?

[Coyotl]

25. K & R

Latinos are voting this year. Thank you Donald Trump.

[Laf.La.Dem.]

26. Super sad that this is still so close!

[Lindalouuu]

69. Half of this country

Are racist, crazies. I feel very sad.

[Egnever]

96. It's not close

It has never been close.

[Fahrenthold451]

29. Look for an even stronger Latino turnout in AZ

[ananda]

31. Thank you! I needed to hear some good news!

[Rose Siding]

34. Harry's a treasure.

[workinclasszero]

36. Harry is a great dem!

[bucolic_frolic]

35. Focus on issues that matter to voters

instead of fear and fakery

That's what HRC has done here and that's why she'll win

Send Ghouliani to his cage

[True_Blue]

37. Thank you Nevada!

[mountain grammy]

42. thank you highplainsdem

and Nevada!

[Sunlei]

43. (R)trump knows 'he's a loser' his last rally was a jealous whine-fest over a Jay Z concert.

Republicans did it to themselves, not ONE of them out of their entire party stood up and did the moral, right thing! They're ALL a party of losers. GOP are all "DEAD TO ME" untrustworthy, not transparent at all.

It's not just trump who was "killed", The entire Republican party suicided! and left regular Americans alone.

[SunSeeker]

46. K & R

[kevink077]

48. Thanks Harry Reid!!

The guy built an amazing dem machine Nevada.

[asiliveandbreathe]

52. Thanks - Ralston rocks....

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely - Now that IS funny - coming from a Pats fan....

[ffr]

58. News blackout of the bigger story this election up north.

They're only talking about record EV turnout up north; all four M$M news outlets here. Not a word about what a devastating record turnout it was in Clark County. One has to ask themselves, why would they do that?



I suppose they don't want to piss off all their red state viewers. Better to keep them in the dark, then to rile them up over facts.

[Akamai]

60. I am now a big fan of Ralston's and have forgotten my earlier concerns

about him. "You go, John!!!"

[Lindalouuu]

67. Great news!!!!

I hope it holds to be true.....! My happiness will be complete If Florida follows suit..being a Floridian, that is my hope.

[icnorth]

70. Not supposed to weigh in on your election but

what the hell, your liberal friends north of the border thank you.

PS Even the majority of conservatives up here thank you.

[That Guy 888]

72. Too bad Ralston has no credibility this election.

I still think Clinton will win, but keep GOTV for Tuesday, this election looks closer than it should.

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

73. Ralston's been doing this 30+ yrs

Is he snarky and obnoxious on occasion? Oh yea. He indulges in shit stirring once in a while.

Is he right more often than he is wrong? Yup, most definitely. As a NV voter, I appreciate his info on NV legislature/legislators. He knows his NV stuff.

[That Guy 888]

74. I'm talking specifically about this election.

He lied, doubled down on the lie, got caught lying and was fired by PBS because of it.

[geek tragedy]

76. no one understands Nevada early voting like Ralston nt

[duffyduff]

78. He knows a hell of a lot more than you do. n/t

[That Guy 888]

89. He lied a hell of a lot more than I did. n/t

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

80. Ralstons show dropped cuz $

PBS claimed they lost donors to fund show, Ralston said they didn't like his aggressive interviewing style.

http://on.rgj.com/28VESoR

Like I said, he can be snarky and obnoxious. But he has insider NV info no one else can touch

[That Guy 888]

90. It was the direct result of his lying. Lying is not aggressive interviewing.

The Reno gazette story is all Ralston. He needed to say something to try and save his credibility. He should have as much credibility as brietbart after A.C.O.R.N.

[Tarheel_Dem]

79. I trust Jon on this. <<<< Fingers Crossed >>>>. n/t

[TonyPDX]

81. Let's send Sheldon Adelson a nice fruit basket as a consolation prize.

He deserves to get something in exchange for the millions flushed down his gold-plated Nevada loo.

[Quiet_Dem_Mom]

83. Please! We just gave $750m public$

To finance the Vegas Raiders stadium!



No flowers for Sheldy!

[gademocrat7]

84. Blue wave in Nevada!

[riversedge]

85. thank you. Take rudy DOWN

[Thrill]

88. Funny seeing the guy responding to Ralston

Claiming him and his wife are registered Democrats voting for Trump. lol. Aldo claimed there aren't many blacks in line like 2012. lol

[flying-skeleton]

98. So explain 538 poll for NV

Why does Nate Silver's 538 have NV as a toss up and slightly leaning Trump ??

[LaydeeBug]

102. kick. nt

[Hortensis]

112. Oh, let it ALL hold true... Thanks, Highplainsdem.