Add Three Points to Hillary's Count in All Recent Polls

[MineralMan]

Everywhere. Why? Because the polling isn't seeing the vast turnout of Hispanics nor the Republican women who will vote for Hillary. Those two things will contribute materially to her winning in states that seem close right now, and will increase the margin in other states.

That's my prediction. It's based on early voting turnout and some surveying of early voters after they have voted. While some white suburban Democrats are less enthusiastic than I'd like, there are several groups that are enthusiastic about defeating Donald Trump, because he and his followers are clearly dangerous to those groups.

So, when you see a poll result, add 3 points to Hillary's count. That will better reflect what is going to happen when the votes are all counted on Tuesday night. If I'm right, I'll say so. If I turn out to be wrong, I'll say so. I don't think I'll have to say I was wrong, though.

[rzemanfl]

1. While I try to avoid Republicans, I am acquainted with

three Republican women, one is voting for Hillary, one is writing in her husband's name and the other is still just nuts. I think you are being very conservative regarding the Hillary vote among Republican women.

[MineralMan]

3. I think I'm being conservative, too, with my estimate.

I'm hoping to be surprised, and pleasantly surprised, at that.

[Democrats Ascendant]

2. I think you are right, but more so with popular vote.

States are too diverse for a blanket +3. Still, I'm praying for a 400+ landslide!!!!

[Cosmocat]

4. Right - there are states that the hispanic vote is not as much of a factor

New Hampshire for example.

PA does not have as much of a hispanic population.

NC and Florida, however ...

[No Vested Interest]

34. Not many Hispanics in Ohio either - unfortunately.

Ohio is predicted to go Red.
It would seem that Kasich's lack of endorsement for Trump has no effect on Repubs thinking. - Many/most repubs are still going to vote Trump, apparently.

[Cosmocat]

35. YEP

nm

[retread]

46. "...Repubs thinking." Thanks! I needed the chuckle.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

5. I'd have to look it up, but it seemed like Democrats did better in past elections...

... than what the latest polls before election day indicated from 2000 to 2012.

I was pleasantly surprised when the 2000 general election was so close (and that Gore actually won the popular vote), only to have the rug pulled out later by the efforts (and eventually success in the Supreme Court) to suppress recounts in Florida. I was already depressed about a probable Du(m)bya win before election night, in other words.

It just seems like every general election has been that way since then, but maybe I'm remembering wrong?

Obama definitely did better than expected (per the polling averages that I followed) in 2012.

[MineralMan]

7. I think this election is not like previous elections.

Trump is not a typical Republican candidate. He is, on the other hand, a polarizing candidate. Moderate Republicans, in many cases, see him as far too bizarre to be elected. Some of those will simply skip the presidential election, either altogether or in that race. Others will vote for Hillary Clinton, because she is, at least, a normal politician. A tiny percentage of moderate Republicans might vote for a third party candidate, but very few.

Frankly, I think my 3% figure may be too low. But, I'll stick with it because it's plenty to assure a landslide victory, due to swing states and close states ending up in Hillary's camp.

I could be wrong, of course. But, I don't think so.

[Madam45for2923]

6. Woohoo! and with that am going GOTV ...

[MineralMan]

8. Yay! Thank you!

I haven't been able to do my usual door-to-door stuff this year, and that makes me sad. But, I'm really not up to it and there are many other things going on that are eating up my time. Fortunately, my precinct will go at least 60% for Hillary.

[Wounded Bear]

9. I agree in principle...

there has been a lot of talk about a "hidden vote." Trump, of course claims it will break for him. IMNSHO it will definitely break for Clinton.

[MineralMan]

10. I don't think there is any hidden vote for Trump at all.

I do think there is a fairly large hidden vote for Hillary, though.

[Qutzupalotl]

15. There is, but it is a question of proportion.

I think your +3 is a pretty good guess, but I expect it to swing the other way in some areas. I keep hearing reporters finding first-time voters going for Trump. This is a high-turnout election because both sides are fired up. We have the advantage in ground game and resources, and as you mentioned, there will be Trump wives secretly voting Clinton. There are registered Republicans breaking for Clinton, which are invisible to early turnout numbers unless specifically polled. Then there is the intimidation/suppression factor, blunted hopefully by the Justice Department.

All this makes an unpredictable race, with polling varying widely.

These are interesting times. One hopes common decency will prevail, and does what one can. Together we can do what one cannot.

[MineralMan]

16. That's the fun thing about predictions.

You make them, and there's no real cost if you are wrong. I'm just some guy posting on DU. Nobody cares about my predictions but me. If I'm right, I get to polish my wedding ring on my shirt. If I'm wrong, I get to shrug.

[Rocknrule]

11. When you call people rapists or proudly admit to sexually assaulting them

they're going to vote against your ass

[MineralMan]

12. Yes, they are. And if you're a sexual assaulter of women,

women are going to vote against your sorry ass, too. Even a lot of Republican women. I think those are going to be the stories of this election. Hispanics and Women. Those two demographic groups are going to surprise everyone, I think.

[nevergiveup]

13. I think you are on the money

I have thought this all along. There is no hidden vote for Trump and if anything it is the opposite...... and Hispanics are voting in droves. I talked yesterday to a Mexican American friend I have known for years. He is not active politically but says everyone he knows is voting. When he started talking about Trump his voice was shaking. He compared him to Hitler. I tried to settle him down assuring him that everything was going to be okay.

I am convinced that at this point the election is baked in. Trump is going down. The question now is whether Republican Senators go down with him.

[MineralMan]

14. Thanks!

We'll find out Tuesday night. Can't wait.

[Blue Idaho]

17. I completely agree.

I'm not sure any of the polling models are taking into account the huge uptick in Latino voting and the female Never Trump voters. I even think GOP women are far less likely to tell anyone who they really are voting for - just to keep peace at home.

God willing and the creeks don't rise - we got this.

[MineralMan]

18. Thanks. I hope I'm right.

[Helen Borg]

19. Make that 6 points. Just in case.

[MineralMan]

20. I try not to overstep in my predictions...

too much, at least.

[Avalux]

21. I agree with you. Surprise!

I am remembering the primary...

But here we are in total agreement, and this is why I love DU.

Hillary's numbers will outperform every poll, leaving people stunned, and Donald Trump mad as a hornet on crack.

I'm feeling good about Tuesday night, really good!

[MineralMan]

22. Thanks! I'm looking forward to Tuesday night, too.

Even better, I'll be able to get to sleep about 10 PM my time. They'll call the Pacific coast states right away. Then, I'll roll over and sleep like a baby.

[Nac Mac Feegle]

23. I suspect that you are conservative in your estimate

I "drive by voted" yesterday; I'm going to be on the road this coming week so I got an Early / Absentee ballot and dropped it off. The line was more than a block long, if it were unfolded. There were a lot of Hispanics, but this is Arizona. Those of us that already had our filled out ballots were able to bypass the line and drop them in the box directly.

I suspect that turnout is going to be pretty high for this one. Given the insulting remarks about minorities, Hispanics especially, from high profile people on the -R side, I'm beginning to think Arizona may go a bit Blue, this time.


My take on the situation: These people are NUTS, over on the Right. We need to Vote the living shit out of them, to stop this slide into hatred and madness.

[MineralMan]

24. I sincerely hope you're right!

[GeorgeOrtega]

25. Add two to the woman factor, two more for ground game, for total of seven

Yeah, I think she'll beat recent polling, (about 5 points) by about seven points. A total of five for women actually seems conservative when compared to recent gender gap polls listed at presidentialgenderwatch.org.

And research by Rasmus Kleis Nielsen, the author of Ground Wars: Personalized Communication in Political Campaigns, suggests that Trump stands to lose several more points because he didn't wage a convention ground campaign. Here's more on that:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/12/13228828/donald-trump-ground-game-expert-damage

A quote from the piece, published about three weeks ago:

"The damage is done. You can’t unfurl a cutting-edge ground operation in such a short period of time. There is no question about that. That is simply impossible. You can always invest and always improve, but you can’t possibly put together the kind of operation or the kind of infrastructure that it would require to have a fully competitive organization."

5+7=12, and that should translate to a 400+ EV landlide for Hillary, and our possibly recapturing the House.

GOTVGOTVGOTV!!!

[MineralMan]

26. I hope you're correct. I'd love to see that!

[GeorgeOrtega]

36. And we didn't even factor in the tanking markets!

A recent multiple-day drop in the financial indexes following Comey's breaking the Hatch Act, leading many investers to fear Trump could possibly win and threaten their profits, may just give us an additional point or two.

Emerging Stocks Slide to Seven-Week Low as U.S. Race Tightens

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/emerging-assets-decline-for-second-day-as-poll-shows-trump-ahead

I don't know how many would-be Trump supporters are invested in the stock market, but if the number is substantial, we could factor that in to our calculations, and easily be looking at a 10+ point landslide for Hillary.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

30. Republicans today are brainwashed.

Those in my family are either concerned only about SCOTUS or conservative values. Knowing Trump would appoint cons is what they care about. That includes the 3 Republican women and 2 men in my family.

In my very Republican neighborhood, Republicans on the local ballot are reviled. But they hate Hillary and think she'll be indicted. The disconnect is mind boggling. I try daily to debunk the junk.

[ananda]

31. I've been adding 6 points.

I think it will be a landslide, and I hope and pray
she brings Congress and the Senate with her!

Is Schumer still sittin on that money the Dems
could use in down ballot races ????

[docgee]

32. Agree, and it was the same in the last two elections. eom.

[PatrickforO]

33. This is a happy post, Mineral Man.

I think you are an experienced observer (and participant) in politics. And believe me, NOTHING would please me more than congratulating you for being right!

Fingers crossed.

[MineralMan]

40. It is. I expect to be happy on Wednesday morning.

[LiberalFighter]

37. I'm there with you. Overall it should be.

Considering that he has upset a lot of people that would usually vote for the generic Republican nominee. Trump is not.

Any new voters voting Republican will be more than offset by Republicans either not voting, voting third party, or voting for Clinton. That includes white men. Then there are the many different groups that are motivated to vote for Clinton because of what Trump has done. There is also the question as to how many of those Trump supporters especially new and rarely voting will vote.

[Lindalouuu]

38. I want to be able to congratulate you

On Nov 9, for being right. I can't believe all the Trump yard signs around the city where I live. And my county traditionally votes blue here in st Lucie county FL. It is pissing me off ...all these stupid signs.

[Amimnoch]

39. I personally know 3x Republican women who meet this.

My cousin in Virginia, while she remains silent on her own facebook page (her husband is a rabid Trumper), I'd noticed she tended to "like" more than a few of my pro-Hillary/anti-tRump postings. When talking to her on the phone, I asked her straight up about those likes (and interesting lack of likes of her husband's rankings).. she just said "I can't support trump, I'll leave it at that."

Her mother, my aunt by marriage, is in much the same boat. Her husband remains loyal to the Republican party, and rationalizes his support for Trump. While my cousin-in-law doesn't bother me, my uncle is a different story. I'd always admired him, and respected him even if we didn't see eye to eye politically. My aunt has also strongly hinted to me that she's in it for Hillary, but would never say so out loud.

My sister-in-law in Florida is in much the same boat. She's on my husband's side of the family. She's quite vocal about her decision to vote straight all Republican's on her ballot EXCEPT for Trump, and there she voted Hillary (she early voted).

[MineralMan]

42. Thanks for that anecdotal information. I've heard a lot of

similar stories, which boosts my confidence in a Hillary win.

[Coyotl]

41. Add in the brilliant ads Hillary is released in rapid succession.

[MineralMan]

44. Yes. Her ads have been brilliant, and they're being

shown where they will do the most good.

[Arkana]

43. This screams "SILENT MAJORITY" to me.

I know that's not what you intended, but I want to see real data showing that Republican women are breaking for Hillary. Hispanic turnout is way up, to be sure, in both NV and FL, but I want to see real data before I start making assumptions.

[MineralMan]

45. You'll have to wait until election returns start

coming in. Maybe until Wednesday, when they start analyzing the results.