Florida Early Voting Trends

[helpisontheway]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

Democratic consultant Kevin Cate, who calculates the vote-differential between the candidates by averaging the polls into the ballots cast, said Trump is almost hopelessly behind. By Cate’s calculations, Trump is down about 90,000 raw votes.
“At this point, Trump would need to win over 50 percent of the remaining votes and that means it’s almost impossible to catch up. He needs an extra inning that doesn’t exist,” Cate said. Cate did acknowledge that there is one way that his calculations would be wrong and that Trump would win: if the polls are completely wrong.
“We use the have average of all these polls that are out there, and many of them skew Republican,” Cate said. “And they still show Trump losing.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788#ixzz4PAZcHhlk
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[MyNameIsKhan]

1. Mook already said HRC is 170k votes ahead and Repubs have cannibalized their election day vote

Right now Dems are going to win Election day by few points...

Previously I though win will be around 150-200k votes but now it will extent around 300k votes.

[helpisontheway]

2. Awesome! Nt

[Charles Bukowski]

4. That's how I see it.

Most of the reputable pollsters last week (CNN, Quinnipiac) had HRC up 1-2%, and those were taken peak-Comey.

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. And this does not account crossovers that Tom Bonier@Targetsmart found in his poll

if crossovers are real and happening, which means split ticket, we can get to win margin as 600k-800k votes which will be inline with HRC +8 in the poll. Plus targetsmart will be considered as one of the most accurate pollsters in history of modern elections. Every EV state will follow this methodology 2020 onwards.

[Doctor Jack]

3. Give me the bottom line

The article says its mostly good news for dems but there are also some concerns and then throws out a ton of numbers and stats that don't really make sense to me, a person that doesn't usually follow florida politics.

So, is this better than expected? What we were expecting? Worse than expected? Better than 2012? Worse than 2012? How should I feel about Florida right now?

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. It is in inline with 2012, both sides are energized and getting new voters to polls but we have

advantage built in structure of voter registration and demographics plus a crazy candidate who hate hispanics.

[Fahrenthold451]

7. It's on paper worse than 2012.

Dems down slightly. But Early voting polls show three trends working for Clinton. William Mary poll shows Republican women crossing over. Af Am vote is down a tick but Hispanic up a lot. Unaffiliated vote skews D.

I think +90k is about right.