********BREAKING A RATED MUHLENBURG PENNSYLVANIA POLL******* CLINTON 48 (+2) IL DUCE 42 (+1)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.

The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier , indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.


http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html

[workinclasszero]

1. Dayum!!!

The blue wave is coming people!!!!

White House and Senate minimum!!!

[Dem2]

2. Those asterisks work wonders!

This was posted 3 hours ago.

[workinclasszero]

7. I never saw it.

Lets put the good news out hourly lol

[sharp_stick]

3. This makes me happy n/t

[vadermike]

4. How

Will the Philly strike effect pa?!

[DeminPennswoods]

15. SEPTA workers have vowed to work on election day

SEPTA workers will suspend their strike on election day to make sure voters can get to the polls.

[Avalux]

5. Great news! My parents will be voting for Hillary on Tuesday.

I talked to my Mom this morning and she is worried about going to her polling place, afraid Trump supporters will cause trouble. They live in rural PA.

I told her that might happen but she can't stay home just because she's worried. She agreed - no way she's not voting!

[OnDoutside]

6. Is there any info on what the GOP GOTV is like in PA ?

[DeminPennswoods]

14. The GOP has controlled state levers for awhile

here. They have a pretty good operation. The Dems, under Jim Burn, weren't especially effective. Fortunately we have a new party chair, Marcel Groen, who helped turn Montgomery County blue. Before that the Dems relied on Rendell's and Bob Brady's operation to turn out voters in Philly.

The thing is, the Rs and conserva-dems are consistent voters in every election. I don't expect there to be a big dramatic increase in the number of GOP voters. They'll be out regardless. And they're being picked up in the polls.

The big thing is Philadelphia proper plus its 4 collar counties (Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester), Allegheny County, Erie, Lackawanna County (Scranton-WBS), Lehigh (Allentown, Bethlehem) and Centre County (Penn State). In 2014, Tom Wolf won 24 (of 67) counties, but there was a lot of backlash from Penn Staters angry at Corbett. In 2002, Rendell won 18 (of 67) counties against the entirely blah Mike Fisher. In 2008, Obama won 18 (of 67) counties. I'd expect similar for Clinton.

[OnDoutside]

19. Thanks, it's good to get an understanding of the task at hand.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. Philly routinely provides a 300,000 - 400,000 Democratic margin

to throw the state.

Tweety had a segment last night showing Bob Brady (Congressman PA-1) who is also the city Democratic Party head and his meeting with Ward Leaders. They are ready!

Link to the archived segment-

https://archive.org/details/MSNBCW_20161104_230000_Hardball_With_Chris_Matthews#start/180/end/240

[DeminPennswoods]

23. Margin more than that

Last edited Sun Nov 6, 2016, 07:46 AM - Edit history (1)

IIRC, Gore got over 400k in 2004 and Obama over 460k in 2008 and 2012.

[BumRushDaShow]

27. The amount cited is the "extra" towards the final statewide candidate margin

We have something like 800,000+ registered Democrats now not counting the rim 'burbs. Obama got almost 600,000 votes from Philly alone both times (596k in 2008 & 567k in 2012)!

[DeminPennswoods]

29. 2008, 2012 margin was 460k+

The margin has been going up every year as Philadelphia becomes increasingly Democratic. In both 2008 and 2012, the presidential margin was over 460k. Romney only got 91k votes in 2012 in Phila, about 20k less than McCain in 2008.

[BumRushDaShow]

31. Right although

Philly has been pretty much Democratic since the '50s with the election of Joe Clark (my mother's first election in 1951) & Richardson Dilworth following that. Has been nothing but Democratic mayors elected since.

I know they still laugh about how something like 59 Divisions (out of 1600+) had 0 votes for Romney.

[getagrip_already]

32. my mother in law was canvassed yesterday in fox chapel (burb of Pitts).......

Kind of a sleepy place, not high density, white, upper middle class to working class area. The Heinz mansion and Campbell soup plant aren't far away.

She is 88 and lives alone. She got a knock on the door to make sure she would vote.

They are leaving nobody behind if they canvassed her.

[OnDoutside]

34. Excellent, would they provide transport if she couldn't get there herself ?

[DeminPennswoods]

37. nothing in Beaver county

I haven't seen much activity from Clinton around my parts although Bill was in Aliquippa last Friday. The only campaign office near my zip code is the Dem party office in Rochester. Ironically my late registered republican father has gotten more campaign mailers and calls than I have. I guess that's in keeping with the GOP idea that the dead vote.

[Sancho]

8. ...but will 538 care??

[regnaD kciN]

18. Nate will use "trend analysis adjustment" to turn that poll into Trump +2…

[pat_k]

11. Good to hear.

I kinda wish the margin of error wasn't almost as big as the margin between them.

I'm not religious, but today I considered going to a local church to light a candle for each "battleground" state.

[Johnny2X2X]

12. FL and MI

Trump and Hillar have been running ads here in MI like crazy this weekend. Trump's last hope is to win FL and flip MI.

[DeminPennswoods]

17. Muhlenberg's not a bad poll

I'd say it's second behind F&M poll, though. The margin out of Philadelphia proper will be critical, but Muhlenberg didn't break it out, just lumping it in with the suburbs and the Lehigh Valley.

[Funtatlaguy]

20. Pull McGinty thru

[bucolic_frolic]

21. MC/Muhl poll was very Romney in 2012

has the race even or better for Romney as I remember

though I didn't follow it to the final days

[DeminPennswoods]

24. Obama only won 11 counties in 2012

And he didn't get the margins in the Philadelphia suburbs that Clinton will get.

[LisaL]

26. If suburbs can get out to vote (transit strike).

[DeminPennswoods]

28. Suburbanites drive

They only take SEPTA to work for convenience, otherwise they'll drive to their poll in the suburban precincts.

[DeminPennswoods]

25. PA registered voters

Here's the Dept of State 2016 voter registration by county and party: http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/Documents/2016%20Election%20VR%20Stats.pdf

There are 8.2M registered voters. Of those Phila - 1.028M, Montgomery - .551M, Delaware - .392M, Bucks - .439M, Chester - .335M, Lackawanna - .142M, Lehigh - .222M, Allegheny - .876M. That's nearly 1/2 all registered voters in just these 8 counties

The big Republican counties are Lancaster - .318M, York - .279M, Westmoreland - .243M

[riversedge]

30. Hillary Clinton caps off today's campaigning with a @katyperry concert in Philadelphia

Dan Merica ?@danmericaCNN 12h12 hours ago

Hillary Clinton caps off today's campaigning with a @katyperry concert in Philadelphia