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2016 Postmortem

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts) Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:40 PM Nov 2016

HRC 48 - 41 in EV Ohio targetsmart .... Trump +3 as final result

very strange data... anyhow ...

they do not have account souls in polls today and tomorrow... so I am very hopeful HRC is +2

23 replies

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HRC 48 - 41 in EV Ohio targetsmart .... Trump +3 as final result (Original Post) MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 OP

targetsmart has a very accurate method of looking at THIS election lapfog_1 Nov 2016 #7

Hopefully additional big early vote and superior GOTV will squeak this out for us. RBInMaine Nov 2016 #12

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it looks like Hillary has a fair shot Jarqui Nov 2016 #13

This also does not take Comey's announcement into affect, and there is still_one Nov 2016 #14

Very confusing but if I remember right Blue Idaho Nov 2016 #17

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Buckeye_Democrat Nov 2016 #18

Dec 1969 #

lapfog_1

(29,205 posts)

7. targetsmart has a very accurate method of looking at THIS election

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:46 PM

Nov 2016

not based on previous election results or "likely voters" or "registered voters"

They survey the early voters... and then extrapolate that result (unskewing by looking at previous makeups of early voters).

Their methodology seems very sound.

I think this year, many people are voting against the Cheeto head who wouldn't be surveyed by traditional polling methods.

We have never had a fascist running for President before.

RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)

12. Hopefully additional big early vote and superior GOTV will squeak this out for us.

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:50 PM

Nov 2016

Jarqui

(10,126 posts)

13. Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it looks like Hillary has a fair shot

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:51 PM

Nov 2016

http://targetsmart.com/news-item/tswmp-ohio-survey-early-voters/

still_one

(92,219 posts)

14. This also does not take Comey's announcement into affect, and there is

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:52 PM

Nov 2016

no time for that to show up in the polls. Any effect it has will be reflected in the election results, and that would be a positive for us

Blue Idaho

(5,049 posts)

17. Very confusing but if I remember right

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:56 PM

Nov 2016

Ohio Republicans usually turn out in Election Day - not before. So they have more potential upside on Tuesday.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,855 posts)

18. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Sun Nov 6, 2016, 11:58 PM

Nov 2016

People who say they're going to vote a particular way may not vote at all! Fingers crossed!

This looks positive:

The survey shows Clinton captured the support of 10 percent of self-described Republicans who voted early, while 81 percent voted for Trump. In contrast, Trump received the support of 4 percent of self-described Democrats who participated early, with 90 percent voting for Clinton.

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