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Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:31 AM

 

Reminder to IBD/TIPP poll lovers: Rasmussen was very accurate before it sucked

As you may have noticed, certain people have been touting the atrocious, pro-Trump IBD/TIPP poll on the grounds that "It's been accurate in past elections", where it is implied that polls that were once-awesome polls will continue to be awesome.

Well, Rasmussen was very accurate in 2004, and 2008, before it predicted Romney would become our President in 2012.
This is from a Slate article from 2004:

"Look who's laughing now. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins."
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/human_nature/2004/12/lets_go_to_the_audiotape.html

And from Politico, regarding Rasmussen's 2008 accuracy:

And 2008: "Last year, the progressive website FiveThirtyEight.comís pollster ratings, based on the 2008 presidential primaries, awarded Rasmussen the third-highest mark for its accuracy in predicting the outcome of the contests. And Rasmussenís final poll of the 2008 general election ó showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent ó closely mirrored the electionís outcome."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/31047_Page2.html

Needless to say, Rasmussen sucked big time in 2012 to the point that nobody takes the poll seriously.

If you expect IBD/TIPP (which is given a very good grade by the useless fivethirtyeight.com) to be accurate in 2016 based on their past accuracy, I have a bridge to sell you.

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Reply Reminder to IBD/TIPP poll lovers: Rasmussen was very accurate before it sucked (Original post)
molova Nov 2016 OP
JHan Nov 2016 #2
still_one Nov 2016 #3

Response to molova (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:36 AM

2. I approve of the snark in your post - 10/10

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Response to molova (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 12:37 AM

3. The problem with the Rasmussen and Investors business daily, isn't just their republican

bias, it is that they are national polls, and at this stage, only the state polls matter

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