So what do we think about Ohio?

[RandySF]

I'm about to put my map together but I really don't know what to think about OH. Any thoughts?

[Blaukraut]

2. We'll lose by less than the polls indicated

[TrekLuver]

3. I want every state to turn blue

[Quixote1818]

4. I woulden't put it on my map. I would say it's about a 1/3 chance Hillary gets it. nt

[SwankyXomb]

5. Kasich will flip it blue

One last middle finger to Trump

[TheBlackAdder]

6. It's Ohio, you know. The Chicago of modern elections, times 50. The GrOPers find a way to rig it.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It feels like it did in 2004...

False hope based on numbers that don't tell much of a story - all the while downplaying every poll.

Trump leads by margins similar to Obama in 2012. The last poll to even put Hillary up was a month ago (Emerson). Every other poll in Ohio has it either a tie or a Trump lead.

I'd say Ohio is almost certainly lost.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. I agree

I was here in 2004 and tried to make a case for Kerry winning Ohio, but I had an Excel election model at the time and it required a bizarre slant of undecideds to make it happen. I remember tinkering and it suggested 63 or 64% required. Kerry actually did win the undecideds by roughly 60-40 margin according to exit polling but it still wasn't nearly enough.

Ohio has lots of issues that make it problematic for Democrats. The state has more whites than other swing states and fewer Hispanics. The female percentage of the Ohio vote is typically slightly smaller than the national split. We don't receive quite the gender gap advantage as nationally among the females who do vote. There are some religious voting trends also but I don't like to get into that.

In the category I look at, partisan ideology, Ohio has apparently moved upward nicely in self-identified liberals from 2004 (19%) to 2012 (22%). However, that's less than the national uptick in general over the same period. The national exit poll in 2012 revealed 25% liberals. Conservatives have actually risen also, from 34% in 2004 to 35% in 2012. Other states moving in our direction have seen a sharp drop in self-identified conservatives.

In short, there are fewer voters who will consider our side than in other swing states. Tough ask to win so many moderates and undecideds. This cycle is difficult because working class males were already drifting toward the GOP nationally and Ohio has plenty of them.

I'd be semi-shocked if we carry Ohio.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Yes. Ohio has always been the most Republican-leaning swing state.

To me, it's a Republican version of Pennsylvania - there's always the chance, if things break right, for the opposing party to win it but don't count on it.

Yes, it's voted more Democratic than PA has voted Republican the last few election cycles - but the margins have been extremely close, even in landslide Democratic years (2012, 2008, 1996 and 1992).

Just look:

2012: +3
2008: +5
1996: +6
1992: +2

That's an average MOV of just four-points in landslide years. Compare that to states like, say, Colorado, which Obama won by nine-points in 2008 and five-points in 2012. Colorado is a much more favorable swing state than Ohio ... mostly because of the Hispanic vote.

But Ohio still trends GOP, though I do think it's less Republican now than it was in the 90s. Problem is, it's still Republican enough to vote for a guy like Trump. But the fact Obama's margins in 2012 weren't too far off of Clinton's in the 90s, despite Clinton having a larger total popular vote win in 1996 than Obama in either 2008 or 2012, tells me this. However, it's still probably a couple election cycles away from moving into lean-Democratic at the national level.

[Demsrule86]

29. I think you are wrong and I do GOTV...it is close

It was close in 2012. But I think she takes it...and there is no help for Trump in Ohio so no it is not like 2004 where the election was most likely stolen in Ohio.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Na'. She's not going to win it.

Please don't get your hopes up. You'll be disappointed. If she does surprise and win, great, but there is no evidence, at all, that she's going to take Ohio.

The election wasn't most likely stolen in 2004, either. Ohio was consistently trending Bush in every poll - even Democratic-leaning polls. Just like now.

I mentioned Emerson, the last poll that actually had Clinton leading (and it's been a month now). Well they just released their final poll and it's Trump +7. Ohio is gone. I'd be very surprised if Clinton won it. It's a lost state. Sucks because it would be almost impossible for Trump to win the election without it ... but she's not going to win Ohio. I feel pretty confident in saying that right now and, tbh, I was pretty confident a couple weeks ago she would win there. But there is zero evidence, even in that poll that shows her winning the early voting, that she's going to win this state. No poll has her up. Literally no poll. Not one. Zilch. Nada. 0. That's extremely telling.

[Demsrule86]

38. I know it could go either way...but I still think she wins...we will see.

[Demsrule86]

39. Not so she is up 1 in the dispatch poll

and she has a great ground game.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. That poll is irrelevant as it only polls the race as a head-to-head race.

It isn't a valid poll since what has made this race close in many areas is the third party candidates. They need to be included in the polls too. So, I stand by my statement that she will lose Ohio and no poll shows her winning.

At the end of the day, her ground game may make it more competitive but I feel like she trails by 5+ points and I don't see the ground game overcoming that gap.

[Demsrule86]

44. I think third party candidates will get very little vote in Ohio or anywhere really...they always

are very low by election day...nope I live in Ohio and I say we have a chance.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. I hope...but it concerns me so little polls have her up.

I feel like Romney in 2012 - banking on uncertain metrics to pull out a win. We all knew Romney was the underdog there because he wasn't doing too in the polling. No final poll, in fact, had Obama losing there.

Just like now.

With that said, she's better positioned in Florida than Obama was in 2012 - where he actually went into election day trailing in the polls.

[Demsrule86]

48. The Columbus dispatch had Obama up by 2 which was the margin.

I think it will be very close...and early voting is big for Clinton.

[Drunken Irishman]

49. Obama won Ohio by 3...

However, again, that Columbus Dispatch poll should not be used as it only polls the race as a head-to-head, which this race is not. Even if you believe third parties won't receive as much support, it's still impossible to take that poll seriously when they don't ask about those other candidates.

[BlueProgressive]

8. I give Ohio to Trump by a hair. Unfortunately.

Of course if we are pleasantly surprised there, and Hillary's ground game is able to win it, the race is OVER--- and the same with Florida.

Trump has too many "must-win" states in the toss-up category.

[vadermike]

9. I yhink

We will take FL. OH May be lost. We will see

[nolabels]

10. Miami was able to pull it out at the end

The Browns are headed for the #1 pick in the draft and most other things are looking up on positive note also.

Go Hillary !!!

[radius777]

11. Team H clearly thinks they can still win it,

as they've held rallies with LeBron and other celebs in OH, and are making a big push.

their internal numbers must be telling them something or they wouldn't be wasting time/resources there.

I'd say its probably a tossup, where strong turnout from millennials/women/poc and moderate repubs for H could be enough to offset the conservative white dems crossing over to vote for Trump.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

12. I predict it will be Hillary's closest LOSS.

It's embarrassing, but polls lead me to think Trump will win this state.

If she wins, I give lots of praise to the volunteers who helped GOTV!

[Doctor Jack]

13. I bet we win it very narrowly

I think the ground game will beat any polling advantage trump has there

[budkin]

14. Starting to think we have it

Looking good

[Trust Buster]

15. I have lived in Ohio my whole life. I know the pulse of Ohio. Ohio will go Hillary.

[Demsrule86]

23. I agree completely.

Two of my neighbors have also taken down their Trump signs.

[mrsv]

27. I'm from Ohio...we will win

[beachbum bob]

18. I think the women's vote will be the difference and Hillary wins

The momentum has changed...people want to vote for the winner...

[Demsrule86]

20. I think we win...after having gone out

I think we will win...great ground game...lots of enthusiasm too...had not been out before as I had been ill (fine now). I thought it was more promising than 12, and we won 12. It is close...but it feels like it is moving towards Clinton.

[oberliner]

22. Going R

Sadly.

[helpisontheway]

25. I think Hillary is going to lose Ohio and Iowa. However, I think she will win Florida and NC. nt

[rpannier]

26. It'll go Il Douche as horrid as it is

[underpants]

28. Coin flip

Always was going to be

[Demsrule86]

30. She has a good chance to win.

It was close in 2012. But I think she takes it...and there is no help for Trump in Ohio so no it is not like 2004 where the election was most likely stolen in Ohio. Kasich hates Trump. I have not seen any operatives helping Trump...and Portman is like Trump who?

[Buzz Clik]

32. Trump by a hair.

[randr]

34. Build a wall around it

It can be a Trump preserve.

[yardwork]

35. Bad weather in Ohio on Tuesday could hurt turnout.

[LisaL]

43. Yes, but we can't do anything about the weather.

[yardwork]

50. I know and it might hurt turnout among Trump supporters more.

[kwolf68]

46. Drumpf will win Ohio

The Dems don't need it....a colossal blowout is really needed to help this nation heal, but I still stand by my prediction that Hillary scores somewhere between high 280s to mid 290s EV....the idea of her getting 340+ is laughable...I hope it happens though, because our nation needs it. A fairly close election will only embolden the fascists.

[geek tragedy]

47. We lose if it's a national 3 point race. We win if it's a national 6 point race.

In between, I dunno, probably leans Trump.

[liberal N proud]

51. One factor making it unpredictable is those who voted for Kasich in Primary

Many of those were cross-over votes.

[MineralMan]

52. Hillary wins by 4 percentage points in Ohio.

That's my prediction.

[Maeve]

53. I will be pleasantly surprised if we win here

But then I live in a more rural area, so it is depressing...however, I think the Clinton vote is less vocal due to fear of Trumpeteer reactions, so it could go either way.
In other words

[adigal]

54. Feels like the Alabama of the north this election.

I think if Hillary loses any battleground states, it will be Ohio.

[arely staircase]

56. I put it blue on my map. But think I was wrong.

If money hadn't already been wagered I would change Ohio to red and maybe AZ to blue.

[Charlotte Little]

57. I'm a glass half full...of whiskey...kind of gal

Hillary is going to win FL, NC, NV, OH & IA.

OH will be very close, but I still think she's got it.

I even keep hope alive that she'll take GA and AZ. And UT may be the biggest surprise of all - McMuffin will upset the Orange-Asshat to hand the state to Hillary. I know it's so few EVs, but man, that would be so, so sweet.

By 2024, TX will be ours. The country is too multi-colored now, like a rainbow, and that rainbow is in a blue sky. Blue, blue, blue...