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Liberty Belle

(9,535 posts)
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:49 AM Nov 2016

538 just predicted Democrats will take back the Senate!

posted 3 hours ago, 54.1% chance Dems will regain Senate control:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

That means they can push through judicial appointments for Clinton or block bad appointments even if Trump wins.

The site is also predicting Clinton wins the presidency.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538 just predicted Democrats will take back the Senate! (Original Post) Liberty Belle Nov 2016 OP
What? Egnever Nov 2016 #1
Trying to align more with Predictwise maybe? He appears still way off in this race. nt fleabiscuit Nov 2016 #2
Let's hope it only gets better since Comey came out still_one Nov 2016 #3
I have stopped going there. Was so disheartening AllyCat Nov 2016 #5
If they've the balls/ovaries! - hope no more Ben Nelsons in the woodwork! bagelsforbreakfast Nov 2016 #6
Is this a final "prediction," or just the current state of the race? regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #7
Nevada. Nevada. Nevada. ffr Nov 2016 #8
Great news! InAbLuEsTaTe Nov 2016 #9
 

Egnever

(21,506 posts)
1. What?
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 01:50 AM
Nov 2016

My wife just said they had us losing the senate a couple of hours ago...

That would be a huge swing.

AllyCat

(16,189 posts)
5. I have stopped going there. Was so disheartening
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 02:13 AM
Nov 2016

To see the numbers drop after a 70% chance of winning it. I knew there was more to the story than polls after Comey-spew. So I just stopped looking. Thanks for putting this up there but I liked 70% better.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
7. Is this a final "prediction," or just the current state of the race?
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 02:39 AM
Nov 2016

Keep in mind that, as Nate has explained it, 54.1% merely means that, given these circumstances, Democrats would win slightly more than half such elections. Just as, if he were to have HRC up 66.6% to 33.3%, it means that Trump would win roughly one presidential election every twelve years going into it with the current results two days beforehand.

Silver's odds generally mean less than we might imagine them doing.

ffr

(22,670 posts)
8. Nevada. Nevada. Nevada.
Mon Nov 7, 2016, 04:40 AM
Nov 2016

Sorry Drumpfy, we're standing with California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii, out West this election. You're not getting through. No really. You're not! We have our eye on someone far more qualified. And in about 24 hours we speak.

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