What Is Your Prediction State By State For Presidential +Senate

[Joel thakkar]

Mine Is Below

Clinton : 307
Trump : 231

Florida / NC / Ohio are still close but acc. to the early voting data and polls, Clinton has secured Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire..




=================


Senate is too close to call...Giving 47 to each party..with 6 races too close...can go either way...

[vadermike]

1. I'd go

With this map plus NC outside chance at AZ too

[ffr]

2. Work. Calls. Canvassing. More calls. Talking to voters. Getting them to vote.

That's my prediction.

[longship]

3. She takes all of ME, NC, and maybe AZ.

Other than that, I have no problem.

But there may be elements in play here which are not being polled. So any crazy win by Hillary is possible.

We are all going to be surprised on Tuesday night. Drumpf is going to lose, but we likely will underestimate the extent.

But I'll stick with yours, plus all of ME and NC and maybe AZ.

Oopsie! Maine is ME!

[Rochester]

4. Here's mine

I'll make a few other predictions here too:

Top three states by margin of victory:
Clinton: D.C., California, Massachusetts
Trump: Oklahoma, Wyoming, Alabama

Top three states by narrowest margin of victory (closest first):
Clinton: Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Trump: Florida, Nevada, Utah

Tipping point state: Pennsylvania

[vadermike]

5. I

Dont in any way see how NV will go red but I guess we will find out

[Joel thakkar]

7. Split Votes

I have put Nevada for democrats for presidential but tossup in senate because although obama won nevada with 7% margin in 2012, Republican candidate won the senate seat (by 1.2% margin) in 2012 only.

Thus, 8.2 % vote difference in presidential and senate race is pretty big..

[rpannier]

18. Nevada is always hard to predict

The population turnover is usually quite large
In the 80's and 90's it was as high as 50% from one Presidential election to another
Sadly, I think Trump has a better chance to win Nev than HRC
But, the most recent polling does put the Democrat in front in the Senate race
So, I'll happily take that split
HRC President w/o Nevada and a new Democratic Senator from Nevada for 6 more years

[Grey Lemercier]

6. I agree with you exactly on the POTUS, except I would add NC (so 322) But the Senate is

looking like we will be lucky to have it 50-50 (NH is only one I am not pretty sure on).



http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html




The only close races (probable winners):

WI (Flip R to D) Feingold, but much smaller margin
PA (Flip R to D) McGinty <great long term turn around, looked dead in water a couple months back
NV (D Hold) Cortez Masto < great comeback, due to HUGE Latino turnout
IN (R hold) Young..... Bayh collapse was HUGE (was up 22 to 24 points just a couple months ago), he ran horrid campaign in a red state where Shitgibbon is surging
MO (R hold) Blunt is pulling away
NC (R hold) Burr is pulling away
FL (R hold) Rubio, ticket splitting, it is over for Murphy

leaving only

NH ( I have no clue, no real gut feel, so if pressed, I hate to say it, but Ayotte , so an R hold, but really impossible to say, it is the only one left that is a tossup IMHO.

A monster wave election in Sec Clinton's favour, (and that doesn't appear to be happening, unless ALL the polls REALLY fucked up and super undercounted Latinos) might pull back Bayh and maybe, maybe Ross and Kander as well, but they seem almost too far gone.

here are the polls in NH



There is a new poll from U-NH that has Hassan up 4 (3 after 538 adj), put that poll has been an outlier for months and it also (out of the hundreds of polls used by 538) has the SIX HIGHEST Democratic mean-reverted bias. I hope I am wrong on Ayotte.

That said, this would be the map if I am right. If I misscall NH, then its 50-50, which I go into below.




If it is 50/50

It sets up, in 2017, in Virginia, a special election and thsi election would determine control of the Senate until 2018, when another election would be held, as kaines term is up.

A Democratic Senator, probably Bobby Scott (African American House member now) who Gov McAuliffe will appoint for one year, will go up against a Rethug in what will probably be the most expensive Senate race in history.

[Joel thakkar]

8. Nevada Senate

Yeah...Hillary has sure shot locked nevada..but I remember..obama won nevada by 7% and repub. candidate still won senate seat by 1.2%..thus, a florida type split vote can still happen...

[Grey Lemercier]

13. all the meta poll aggregate sites have us winning NV Senate.

I think NH will ticket split though, thus my guess for Ayotte. I hope I am wrong. Bayh is the only other one with any real chance for me to be wrong on, unless EVERY single meta site is wrong in a bad way and that spells huge problems for POTUS as well then. People cant say all are mostly spot on for POTUS and all of the rest , but then say , "Oh, they are wrong on every single closer Senate race, and only wrong on the ones that go against us". That is just willful projection of wishes onto hard data, hard data that drives and validates all the rest that they accept. It is classic cherry picking.

[vadermike]

9. So

Let's say we get 50 which looks like it may happen How fast can Schumer nuke the filibuster and put in a few justices .. Assuming RBG retires and or Clarence Thomas cause the VA special election is when ? Shit we need to get those justices confirmed plus the lower courts I believe garland will be confirmed before President O leaves office

[Grey Lemercier]

10. I agree on Garland, and 50-50, like i said, sets up HUGE 2017 VA election, both sides will dump

INSANE USD into that race.

And 2018 is going to be a Democratic potential nightmare for the midterms, especially the Senate.


We will have 10 or 11 hard races, all defending seats, many in red or purple states, all in an off year, all in a 3rd consecutive term of Dem POTUS's.


FL Bill Nelson (he might retire too, and then it is really up fro grabs)
IN Joe Donnelly
MI Debbie Stabenow (safest of these 11)
MO Claire McCaskill
MT Jon Tester
ND Heidi Heitkamp
NJ Bob Menendez (mainly due to his criminal case, if it is not resolved and he runs still)
PA Bob Casey
VA Tim Kaine (will be another Dem, due to VP, or might be a incumbent Rethug, after 2017 special election)
WI Tammy Baldwin
WV Joe Manchin (might switch parties to Rethug)

then these

NM Martin Heinrich (safe unless Susanna Martinez, who is termed out, runs)
OH Sherrod Brown (safe unless termed out Kasich runs for Senate)

The main Rethug seat we can realistically flip is

NV Dean Heller

Maybe, maybe Flake in AZ


I could see, in a horrid midterm, losing a net 9 to 10 if those last 2 (NM and OH) have Martinez and Kasich running.


Lets say its 51-49 Rethug after the 2017 special election. That gives the fuckers a low, but altogether possible chance at 60 seats for Sec Clinton's last 2 years.

Thats the doomsday scenario.

I suspect it will shake out with a 54-55 or so Rethug majority from 2018 onward.


2020 will be MASSIVE for the 2020's, as that will be the state legislatures who do the redistricting after the 2020 Census.

That's what FUCKED us with the House for so long. Horrid 2010 midterms at Fed and state level, and the Thugs gerrymandered up an untouchable majority.

[vadermike]

12. When

Is the special 2017 VA election ? Agree mid terms will be tough but and I love President O , I'm gonna miss him BUT Hillary will not play footsie with Rs first two years she will reach out a few times but when they strike back she will roll them I think we might get a few things passed and maybe maybe the mid terms won't suck as bad or stay near even maybe I'm wrong but I think we were compromising so much first two years and Rs were playing us that it hurt our turnout in 10 cause progressives were disappointed I think Hillary will play hardball after reaching out and getting rejected real quick at least with the senate we can get a lot of lower court approved and higher stuff too shit nuke the damn filibuster put in tons of lower court stuff asap and get people confirmed if need be for cabinet positions of the GOP really plays hardball Also budget reconciliation if need be to pass domestic programs massive infrastructure healthcare fix min wage immigration altho some of these maybe min wage and a few others can't be done on budget reconciliation Maybe maybe Ryan plays ball on a min wage increase and a new immigration bill

[Grey Lemercier]

14. You are far more optimistic than I am about the Rethugs in Congress.

The ONE thing that unites them is pure, vile hatred of Sec Clinton. The radicals in the House will try to set up an impechment from day one. Ryan may step down, and a pure fascist might replace him. I have seen interviews with over 5 current Dem Senators who said no no no to nuking the filibuster. They know what 2018 looks like.

November 7, 2017 will be the special election to fill the last year of Kaine's term.

[jmowreader]

11. I would add NC, OH, IN and AZ to Hillary's vote count, and deduct UT (and maybe ID) from Trump's

NC? Normally we say a presidential candidate has coattails. In NC, it's a gubernatorial candidate - Roy Cooper is going to draw a lot of people to the polls, and bring Hillary with him.

Ohio will be close, but in the end Trump's nonsupport for the American worker is going to screw him.

Indiana? I think Trump fucked his chances in this state by tapping the highly unpopular Gov. Mike Pence.

Hillary's chances in Arizona are completely dependent on Maricopa County - where the abomination named Arpaio is fighting, apparently unsuccessfully, to keep his job as Administrator of the Gulag Archipelajoe. Also consider that Trump is not the candidate of choice in the Latino population, and Arizona has a very high one.

Now for the two states I think Trump loses: Utah and Idaho. There is an independent candidate named Evan McMullan on the ballot in both states. Trump is roundly despised here. I work for the biggest newspaper north of Lewiston, and we're not seeing a huge groundswell of support for Trump. Don't get me wrong, he's got supporters. Unfortunately for DT, they're the kind of supporters who would vote for Idi Amin if he ran as a Republican. (No, Trump is not 300,000 times worse than Idi Amin so stop saying that.) I think McMullan has a very good chance of taking Utah and possibly taking both states...which would remove 10 EV from Trump's grasp.

I also think there's a slight chance we take Georgia, and a halfway decent chance we take Texas.

[Grey Lemercier]

15. You might want to rethink that Indiana prediction

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/indiana-election-forecast.html




Ohio is a more than fair posit,

AZ not so much, BUT it could happen in a wave election (and Latinos might tip it, but none of the major sites seem to think so)



McMullin has dropped way off against the Shitgibbon in Utah.

[DCBob]

16. Big Clinton win!

[rpannier]

17. Latest polling out of Nevada puts Trump ahead

I have her at 317
Win Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and New Hampshire
Probably lose Arizona, Ohio and Nevada

Senate: I'm going with latest polling and trends
Democrats win New Hampshire (razor thin), Wisconsin, Pennsylvania (this shouldn't have been close)
Missouri has been trending Democratic according to recent polls and the most recent
Nevada shifted our way in the latest polls
I still think Bayh takes Indiana if Lake County gets out and votes in large numbers
51 Democratic, 47 Republican: Missouri and NC could go either way

On edit: Wish to retract sort of
51 Democratic, 46 Republican, Missouri and NC either way
Louisiana goes to a December run-off

[book_worm]

19. I go by what Jon Ralston has said that in early voting HRC has built an insurmountable

lead.