Don't Bother with 538 Today

[titaniumsalute]

I have done polling and research many years of my life. I would really love to look under the hood of Nate Silvers models. I don't know how after so many polls one or two can move his forecast needles so much. It really doesn't make any sense. Sometimes you see a good poll come out and his model drops the chances. Sometimes vice versa. It doesn't make any sense.

He had Hillary going from 66.7% chance to 63.8% chance because of the shitty LA Times Poll and the IBD/Tipp poll this morning. Yet he nearly fully discredits the La Times Poll yet it seems to have the same weight as the others...maybe even more.

Methinks, regardless of what happens tomorrow, he will need to take a serious look at his model moving forward.

[kebob]

3. Silver Has Become Bronze

And maybe he won't even medal at all.

[hlthe2b]

4. I will find it quite interesting after the election...

to see the final results/accuracy of ALL the major pollsters, as well as the "predictive" sights. It should prove fascinating, but hopefully, only in the direction that suggests underestimating of HRC's support.

[mucifer]

9. Also he has the senate going repub now.

[Cha]

10. great. We'll have to make note and see how off or not he was.

[mucifer]

11. So many millions and millions were donated in the last few weeks by a few

billionaires. We might lose the senate. They might have just bought the senate. Makes me want to cry.

[a kennedy]

15. If RoJo wins in Wisconsin......it's ALL because of that money.

Advertisements are just horrible against Russ.

[Demsrule86]

12. He is discrediting his brand.

[dalton99]

16. Good advice. GOTV and ignore them.