2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumList of final national poll results this morning.
Please add to the list if I've missed one:
Bloomberg: Clinton 44%, Trump 41%, Johnson 4%, Stein 2%
CBS News: Clinton 45%, Trump 41%, Johnson 5%, Stein 2%
Washington Post/ABC News: Clinton 47%, Trump 43%, Johnson 4%, Stein 2%
NBC News/SurveyMonkey: Clinton 47%, Trump 41%, Johnson 6%, Stein 3%
Fox News: Clinton 48%, Trump 44%, Johnson 3%, Stein 2%
Monmouth: Clinton 50%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4%, Stein 1%
chillfactor
(7,576 posts)that these polls are accurate.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Democat
(11,617 posts)If Clinton beats Trump by 5% in the popular vote, he's not going to win the electoral college.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)And that 1 time involved some serious shenanigans.
The fact is there's a strong correlation between winning the popular vote and reaching 270+.
getagrip_already
(14,764 posts)>pop vote %, the more likely close house seats will flip.
There is a correlation. Gerrymandering assures votes in a normal election, but it also means in a wave they canbe swamped because they rely on a thin buffer of votes to hold. Exceed that margin, and the district flips.