Dems hope generational shift will turn Texas blue and shut GOP out of White House

[UCmeNdc]

The Texas Democratic Party truly believes that an electoral coup in the state, led by Latinos, would deny conservatives access to the White House for a generation or more — potentially forever, a spokesperson told Raw Story this week.

For future presidential contests, the Republican Party’s plans significantly hinge upon keeping Texas the deepest shade of red on the map, but Democrats are feeling confident fresh off their fifth popular vote victory in the last six presidential elections. That’s got Republican leadership looking to polish their images with immigrant communities, a daunting task given their recent history. Members of the Washington-based conservative group The Ripon Society watched that chill creep up House Speaker John Boehner’s (R-OH) spine on Wednesday as he warned that the president intends to “just shove us into the dustbin of history.”


Raw Story (http://s.tt/1yWx1)

[JDPriestly]

1. It's no the president who is shoving Republicans into the dustbin of history.

It's the Republicans themselves.

They refuse to acknowledge that we need to control our CO2 emissions. They refuse to recognize the reality of gender equality. They refuse to recognize the importance of birth control and family planning. They refuse to recognize our right to true religious freedom. They refuse to respect all ethnic and racial groups as equals. They refuse to support public schools. They are too quick to reach for a military or violent solution to our disagreements with other countries. They are poor diplomats. They are overly ideological and not pragmatic enough. They refuse to be reasonable about gun control. They are just out of touch with reality.

Worst of all, their free market theories have resulted in a disastrous economy and we are all paying for it.

[Hekate]

18. I can donate a broom

But they're doing such a good job all by themselves, aren't they?

[AndyTiedye]

2. They Can Prevent That Through Gerrymandering

They can redraw the districts as often as they need to to stay in power, and now they'll gerrymander the Presidential race too.

[blkmusclmachine]

3. Not to worry. The DEMs will find a way, ANY WAY, to throw the GOP a lifeline.

The DEMs won't want to be seen as partisan, dontchaknow?!

[quakerboy]

4. Cant gerymander governors or senators

Texas will start to shade more and more blue. Even making it a semi kinda tossup state would be a huge help for national politics.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. Can only redraw districts every 10 years, and by 2020, it'll be too late.

The Hispanic population will be quite large by then. Second, redistricting won't help Republicans in statewide elections.

[AndyTiedye]

17. Every 10 Years after the Census Used to be the Rule

Texas changed all that, and the Supreme Court let it stand, so now they can redistrict any time they want.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. I thought SCOTUS decision outlawed TX redistricting scheme.

Thanks

[illegaloperation]

22. No it didn't.

Read here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. O.K., thanks for the clarification.

[illegaloperation]

15. That won't be a problem in statewide election.

Gerrymandering (currently) only affect the House of Representatives.

It does not affect statewide elections. (At least not yet!)

[AndyTiedye]

16. It Does Affect the State Legislatures (Which Draw US Congressional Districts)

The only races that are (probably) gerrymander-proof are gubernatorial races and those for other state officers.

[illegaloperation]

21. This is something I've always wondered about.

How are the seats in the State House of Representatives and the State Senate assign?

[illegaloperation]

5. Texas should already be a blue state.

Let us compare demographics.

Texas
70.4% White (Non-Hispanic Whites: 45.3%)
3.8% Asian
11.8% Black or African American
0.7% Native American
2.7% Multiracial
0.1% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander
37.6% Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

California
74% White (40% Non-Hispanic White)
14% Asian
6.6% Black or African American
2% Native American
5% Multiracial
0.4% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander
38% Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

Clearly, Texas should have already been bright blue. Why is it not? The lack of investment from the Democrats to make it so.

[SpartanDem]

7. Texas is full of evangelical fundy types

California is not. this is about culture not investment

let's compare demographics...

CA

Protestant – 36%
-Evangelical Protestant – 18%
-Mainline Protestant – 14%
-Black Protestant – 4%
Roman Catholic – 31%
Jewish – 2%
LDS – 2%
Hinduism – <1%
Muslim – <0.5%
Other Religions – 4%
Non-Religious/ Atheist/ Agnostic – 21%

TX..
Evangelical Protestant 34%
Mainline Protestant 15%
Historically Black Protestant 8%
Catholic 24%
Mormon 1%
Orthodox Tradition< 0.5%
Jehovah's Witness Tradition 1%
Other Christian< 0.5%
Jewish 1%
Muslim 0.5%
Buddhist 1%
Hindu Tradition 1%
Other World Religions< 0.5%
Other Faiths 1%
Unaffiliated 12%

[illegaloperation]

9. Don't forget other groups.

African American make up a bigger percent of the electorate in Texas than California and African American are solidly Democratic.

Nationally:
African American: Obama 95% - Romney 4%
Hispanics/Latino: Obama 71% - Romney 27%
Asian: Obama 76% - Romney 26%

I will assume that 3/4 of the Latino are NOT undocumented.

0.95 x 11.8% + 0.71 x 3/4 x 38% + 0.76 x 3.8% = 34.333%

If the Democrats are able to mobilize these voters, they should already have 34.333% vote for Obama without a single white vote.

[NewJeffCT]

10. The white vote in TX is a lot redder than the white vote in CA

and, I'm sure Republicans have a pretty active voter suppression machine there, unlike California. And, if Rubio is on the ticket in 2016, it will give the GOP a boost among Latino voters - even a jump from 27% to 33% could make a difference. And, I would expect the African-American percentage to return to closer to the traditional 90-10 without Obama on the ticket.

2016 is all about the economy. If the economy improves and unemployment has continued to drop, the Democratic nominee would most likely be the favorite.

All things being equal, I think the Dems will pick up 1-2% in TX in 2016 from their 2012 totals. If the economy is solid and Hillary has the money behind her, she could start advertising beyond the traditional swing states and into "future" potential swing states like a Texas or Georgia and pick up 3-4% in TX and maybe put it in play for 2020 or 2024.

[illegaloperation]

13. A few points I want to make.

Rubio is Cuban American. He is NOT Mexican American nor Puerto Rican and I doubt that he'll have much impact. Cuban American already lean Republican.

Also, assume the Democrats are able to mobilize Hispanics and African American, they'll still need to win 1 in 3 white votes. Of cause by 2020, that need will decline.

In addition, the economy isn't everything. That's why Bill Clinton wasn't able to win Texas.

While the state wouldn't go blue in the Presidential election for a while, I am wondering if there are Democratic candidates that have enough statewide appeal to be able to win statewide races from split-ticket voting.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. Sharp decline in black population offsets the entire minority demographic. There will have to

be a sizeable increase in the Hispanic population to offset the declining black population. I believe that will help.

The Asian numbers look really interesting. That will be the next minority population that could be very important for Democrats.

[illegaloperation]

14. I looked into this.

According to the 2006 US Census estimates, African American is at 11.5% in Texas.
In the 2010 US Census estimates, African American slightly increased to 11.8% in Texas.

I am not seeing any kind of steep decline of African American population in Texas.

African American population seem to be growing at the same rate as all of Texas.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. Thanks. I misread the chart that you posted comparing CA to TX

[Cha]

6. Repubs never take personal responsibility.. this is a prime example

from Boner. I guess he can't say.. "we are shoving ourselves into the dustbin of history".. wouldn't be prudent.

The President gives them rope and petards but it's on boner, mitch, eric, and the gang.

[sakabatou]

8. If only. We Gen X/Y's have been hard-pressed these days.