Obama did very strongly defend Rice - so strongly that many used it as proof that she was his choice - even though he prefaced his remarks with saying that he had not made up his mind.
Just reading the various articles, it seemed that what really killed Rice was likely not the Republican attacks, but the various comments that she was abrasive and did not have strong relationships with many Congressmen/Senators. In addition, there were foreign diplomats - including many from Russia - who already were pretty negative about her.
The downsides of picking Kerry were mostly positives about Kerry - that Obama would lose a very strong, good ally in the Senate on both the SFRC and Finance committees. That and the neutral (with respect to Kerry) concern that the Democrats could lose the state. The ONLY negatives even the WP (which was 100% behind Rice) had were that he was very rich and that he was very independent. The latter ignores, that while Kerry has his own very strong believes, when he acted as a surrogate, he was very very good remembering to represent the President, not himself. (something other politicians had more problems with.) On the plus side, no one doubted the respect he had earned in the Senate, his diplomatic skills, his integrity or his knowledge and vision on foreign policy.
If you were Obama, why would you chose to spend the political capital to gain Rice on the team, when she could fail either as a diplomat or in being the administration's FP spokesperson with Congress when there was a less risky choice who many thought deserved it. In fact, it was mostly the Republican attacks that made people here run to Rice's side.
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