270 To Win

[RedSpartan]

I'm sure I'm the last to know about this website (or others like it), but it gives me comfort:

http://www.270towin.com/

You can fill in who you think will win states and see the totals. The basic map has some blue (227 EVs), some red (191EVs), and NH, PA, OH, VA, FL, NC, CO, NA and IA as swing states. Although anything is possible, looking at the map, I don't think any of the blues or reds will flip.

Now, I know November is a loooooong way away, especially in politics, but really, I just can't see Obama losing PA, NH or CO. That puts him at 260 right there. A win in ANY of the other states (or NV and IA combined, which I think is a real possibility) and he wins.

Basically, Rmoney has to flip just about every swing state to pull it off. Not impossible, but Obama has so many paths to victory that I'm feeling pretty darn good about things.

Anyway, it's fun to play with. Just thought I'd share my two cents.

[WI_DEM]

1. I think that the president has more paths to 270 than Romney does

[PoliticAverse]

2. This is the type of thing political strategists actually look at, as we don't elect Presidents by...

popular vote.

BTW 270towin was created by a guy named Allan Keiter: http://www.myrateplan.com/news/biography.php

His twitter account is: http://twitter.com/#!/allankeiter

[PoliticAverse]

6. Karl Rove gives Obama electoral vote lead...

http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0202/Polling_News_and_Notes_04_26_12.pdf

[RedSpartan]

7. In Rove's map, even if Rmoney wins every swing state, Obama wins

284 to 254

[gopiscrap]

3. THis is my take:

AK ID ND WY UT SD NE KS OK TX AR LA KY MO WV TN IN MS AL GA NC SC ABSOLUTE REP FOR 191 EV

WA HI OR CA NV NM MN WI IA MI PA NJ ME NH VT MA RI CT DE DC IL MD FL CO ABSOLUTE DEM 271 EV

TOSS: MT AZ FL OH 64 EV

[Dawgs]

4. You have FL for DEM and TOSS. n/t

[gopiscrap]

11. Thanks typo

he's not supposed to be in toss

[Laf.La.Dem.]

5. Thanks for posting the website

very interesting

[Daniel537]

8. Quite a few plausible 269-269 scenarios there.

All the more reason to remind people to vote in their House and Senate races as well.

[Taylor Smite]

9. I use that as well as

Last edited Fri Apr 27, 2012, 09:45 AM - Edit history (1)

RealClearPolitics. RCP is cool because it has an aggregate of all the latest polls from each state. I look at the poll numbers and make the map on 270towin. Like you said, this is Obama's to lose.

[RedSpartan]

10. Thanks. The RCP map is helpful.

Good to click on the states and see polling and fill in at 270towin:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html