Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Bush Pushes Christie Aside

[DonViejo]

2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the Top

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, U.Va. Center for Politics March 20th, 2014

In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

But during 2013 and into this new year, we’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.

Why?

There are several reasons, and one of the most important does not have much to do with Bush, at least on the surface: Chris Christie’s bridge scandal.

To understand the potential importance of l’affaire bridge in determining whether Jeb Bush might run for president, we need to look back at the 2012 presidential cycle.

more
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-gop-presidential-update-a-new-familiar-name-at-the-top/

[rurallib]

1. I hope most Americans would totally reject another Bush

How fucking stupid can America be?

[freebrew]

3. Was it W C Fields?

I forgot who said: "you can't go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."

And Einstein said something like "there's more stupidity in the universe than hydrogen".

We should all worry. Mitt was downright stupid, McOldguy was batshit crazy.
Jeb is sneaky and not as dumb.

[rurallib]

4. I remember looking that up long ago - I believe it was H.L. Mencken

I think some have attributed it to good old P.T. Barnum. P.T. is a man I think of all the time - the way he fleeced the sheep with his shows and exhibition and they begged for more and more and more. No doubt he would be a great example of a job creator today.

Just checked - yep it was Mencken

[monmouth3]

2. I believe their candidate will be Jeb, he's the least craziest...

[XiaomuWave]

5. I think Jeb can get the nomination if he wants it

Republicans have nominated the runner up in a previous primary or a prior VP almost every time in the last hundred years or so. One of the exceptions - the son of a President.

Then after he loses, Bush will be joining the ranks of McCain and Romney who werent conservative enough!

[sofa king]

6. Long before Bridgetrollgate...

... I told my better half that if Jeb Bush wanted to run, the first thing he'd have to do is destroy Chris Christie.

Christie had done his homework and was as well-positioned as a guy could be. He had his own private guy inside the US Senate and was a shoo-in for the Chairman of the National Governors Association in 2014 (he is still head of the Republican wing of that most powerful lobby, but now he's afraid to use the position), which in turn would have gone a long way toward securing the nomination in 2016.

(In Republican politics, governors are almost always the front-runners, and the nominee. Two excellent exceptions prove the rule: George H. W. Bush, and Richard Nixon. Nixon ran for governor and lost after he ran for President and lost, in an attempt to shore up his credentials. GHWB didn't follow the rule himself, but passed it on to his two sons.)

Christie's aspirations were deliberately designed to box out Jeb Bush himself, by setting Christie forth as a more important and more current governor.

We'll see how good Jeb is at controlling his own scandals, because one of them is almost certainly going to be evidence of contact between someone who betrayed Christie, and someone who works for Jeb.

I'd bet money on it.

[blkmusclmachine]

7. Jeb Bush/Liz Cheney '16: Keepin' 'murika SAFE!

[davidpdx]

8. Oh god

[Democracyinkind]

9. I believe that Jeb's incognito status is a sign of his intention to run, rather than the opposite.

He's setting himself up to be the proverbial Cavalry after the crazies have massacred each other.

Jeb was always Poppy's number one choice. And I don't believe that their criminal family and their criminal friends have achieved half of what they had in store for us during Chimpy's 8 years. If this assumption is correct, we should be watchful. The Bushes have a way of getting what they want, whether (s)elcted or not.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

10. And they're grooming george pee bu$h for,

2020!

The bu$he$ will be terrorizing us for a whole century!

[TBF]

12. I believe this is it -

He is running for some sort of commissioner position in Texas which I'm sure is seen as a stepping stone. They can read the demographics as well as any of us.

P is not very bright but he is photogenic. He's the re pug ' answer to the Castro Bros.

[mgcgulfcoast]

11. Bush?? lets all have a good laugh

even Biden would win by 10+.

[libdem4life]

13. Indeed. It's going to be Clinton/Bush redux. Always thought so...Mr. Reasonable with a hot

Mexican wife...entire family bilingual. Does not lock them into a Hispanic VP candidate, as Hillary is likely to need, although I love Julian Castro as potential VP.