Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders Likely To Flop Against Hillary In Iowa

[DonViejo]

Ben Jacobs

Although Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may be contemplating a presidential primary bid against Hillary Clinton, the two-term senator does not have a path to victory in the Iowa Caucuses.

Progressives are already drooling over the possibility of Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont running for president as a Democrat. The Nation, a left-wing magazine, has touted that Sanders “could be the 2016 Democratic candidate we’ve all been waiting for” and the senator is speaking in Iowa on Saturday at a local Democratic Party dinner in Clinton—just one month after appearing in New Hampshire.

Yet while lefty groups are signing petitions urging the Independent senator (who caucuses with the Democrats) to register and throw his hat in the ring, the problem is that there is nothing bearing the slightest resemblance to a path to victory for Sanders in Iowa, a state where presumed front-runner Hillary Clinton is weakest and which has traditionally proved receptive to liberal candidates. One well-connected Iowa Democratic operative told The Daily Beast that Sanders’ ceiling would be 15 percent at best in a one-on-one matchup versus Clinton.

In this situation, he sees Sanders being able to pick up “some anti-Hillary support along with the lefties” but not being much of a factor. And, if anyone else entered the race, Sanders would be a Kucinich-type candidate, attaining viability in college towns and a handful of other bastions of upper-middle-class liberalism. In 2004, Kucinich barely cracked 1 percent of caucus delegates. As another connected Iowa operative noted, electability is important and “the vast majority of caucus goers will not see him as having a chance in a general election.”

Even progressive activists in the Hawkeye State weren’t exactly throwing flowers in Sanders’ wake. Matt Sinovic of the liberal group Progressive Iowa said while he thinks Sanders “tells a compelling story and there’s definitely an appetite for progressive ideas. I don’t know if he’d be able to mount the type of campaign that it would take to take on Hillary Clinton.” Sinovic went on to strike a very friendly note toward the former Secretary of State, saying, “We’re interested in talking with any progressive who wants to come out here and have a discussion about progressive ideas and at some point that’ll be Hillary Clinton.”

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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/16/vermont-senator-bernie-sanders-likely-to-flop-against-hillary-in-iowa.html

[Beacool]

1. Just in IA?

There's almost zero chance of a path to victory in any state for Sanders, but he's obviously free to run.

[Chan790]

3. Any state?

He'd have to try pretty friggin hard to lose most of New England, possibly excepting CT. Between being his home-turf and the antipathy New England has for the Clintons...

[Beacool]

6. That "antipathy" must be why Hillary won NH and why both Clintons are so popular there.

Last edited Sat May 17, 2014, 01:11 PM - Edit history (1)

MA is a state where they are also popular and she won that state too in 2008. Although, Bernie would probably win VT.

[Wounded Bear]

2. I think Iowa's importance is overrated...

and mostly media hype. Because it's early, it can affect fund-raising, sure, but losing Iowa is hardly the kiss of death for national office.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. Rudy Giuliani agreed with that assessment, it didn't work out so well...

Be it media hype or some other force we don't know of, the early states are crucial to winning a primary contest, despite the few delegates that they have.

[Rowdyboy]

12. So did Wes Clark and he dropped from 1st to 4th place in New Hampshire...

Love it or hate it, the media frenzy surrounding the "first salvo of the 2016 campaign" will be just as important as it usually is.

[countryken]

4. Driving the Conversation

I'd be glad to see Bernie out there driving the conversation with his legitimate progressive point of view. He can help shape the whole election with his participation.

[dhill926]

8. this….

[tblue37]

11. And that is the only reason he is talking about running. He

is a smart man, and he is perfectly aware that he won't be the Democratic nominee. If he runs, he will do so to push any other Democratic candidates to the left.

I hope he does it!

[ChangeUp106]

5. It's only 2014

Don't the Hillary fans always say "focus on November?"

And whichever progressive challenges Hillary - whether it be Warren (who would destroy anyone from either party) or Bernie (much harder hill to climb) - will get a lot of support from the base. People are looking for real change in the party and Bernie will get a lot of support. Maybe not enough to beat Hillary, but he'll get a lot.

[Sunlei]

10. Mrs. Clinton & all her groups stated about the same- “Elections this year should be the focus"

A lot of the volunteers and staff for the major Clinton groups are working for this years midterm elections.

When one volunteers for the Mrs. Clinton groups, you were directly asked if you would work for this years midterms & elections.

[Sunlei]

9. I am confident Mrs. Clinton and Bernie Sanders will always fully support each other and the D party

No matter who runs or where.