2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Right Wing’s Worst Nightmare: Master Stroke That Turns Red States Blue (Warren as 2016 Veep)
Putting Warren on the ticket in 2016 as vice president would help Democrats take maximum advantage. And thats not just my own pet theory. We have a solid set of polling data from 2008 to support this view (presented and analyzed here), polling data showing John Edwards the most populist candidate in the field giving candidate Obama a substantial boost from the V.P. slot against any of the GOP tickets he was tested against, a boost unmatched by any other V.P. candidate tested. Indeed, the boost was so significant that based on polling data in early July, an Obama/Edwards ticket put Georgia, Texas, both Carolinas and Mississippi into the toss-up category, while putting Montana and North Dakota into lean Obama. You want a map-changer? Edwards was the very definition of one and Warren could be one, too. Perhaps most dramatically, Edwards expanded Obamas lead in safe state electoral votes from just over 2-1 (207-90) to over 5-1 (286-52) , an electoral map change so profound it could not help having profound implications for House and Senate races as well.
Theres a strong probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016. The GOP field is a mess, and the medias desperate attempts to revive corpses like Chris Christie and Rick Perry only makes the picture even clearer. But the attacks on Clinton will surely escalate exponentially, putting the prospects of a landslide in doubt, no matter how inadequate the GOP candidate turns out to be. The Edwards record from 2008 strongly suggests that Warren as V.P. could help to ensure that landslide and with it, a workable Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, even despite the intense GOP gerrymandering that currently has the House paralyzed. What happens after that will be crucial, of course. If, like Obama and her husband before her, Clinton tries to move to the center and spurn her party base, then the 2018 midterms will be yet another disaster, and political gridlock and dysfunction will continue in the years ahead. The Ron Brownsteins of the world will be vindicated. But if Elizabeth Warren does have some influence, if Clinton does learn from past Democratic mistakes, then maybe, just maybe, we could see America break with its recent history of almost 50 years dominated by divided government and return to a more traditional, more functional political pattern, in which one party and its vision dominates for a period of decades, and the other party survives by adapting to the world that the dominant party has created. The raw numbers tell us this is the direction America wants to go in. Elizabeth Warren could be the key to getting us there. Otherwise, its endless deadlock, as far as the eye can see. http://www.salon.com/2014/07/27/right_wings_worst_nightmare_the_master_stroke_that_turns_red_states_blue/
Louisiana1976
(3,962 posts)MFM008
(19,806 posts)I could seriously get behind.
msongs
(67,401 posts)Ishoutandscream2
(6,661 posts)Are or you making a statement that southerners are phony?
paulkienitz
(1,296 posts)But Edwards' southern-ness is a key difference which may mean Warren wouldn't be nearly as effective as flipping red states.
Chan790
(20,176 posts)not that Southerners were.
This isn't the first time I've heard insinuations that Edwards accent was fake, a folksy put-on to make him more relateable. I have friend from college like that...she picks up patois and accents easily then mimics them to her setting to get people's guard down and make people feel an immediate connection or kinship with her. Her actual accent is as "New England prep school" as my own1 but she works in politics in VA and has most constituents she comes in contact with convinced she's lived her entire life in Richmond. When we went to Chicago last year for another college friend's wedding...she'd gone native before we ever left the airport. She puts on NYC and Boston as easily as she changes her socks.
1: If you heard it, you'd immediately peg it as pretentious over-educated upper-gentry Connecticut. "Lovely, have you seen my cardigan? I believe I may have left it on your sister's yacht down in Mystic last night, in the stateroom on the buffet next to the bottle of Louis XIII and the duck confit." (The voice you probably just read that in in-your-head is what I sound like IRL.)
PAProgressive28
(270 posts)Either President or stay in the Senate
marlakay
(11,457 posts)brooklynite
(94,513 posts)Two "liberal easterners" would be a bad ticket for the national election, and the value of Warren would be lost because she'd have to acquiesce to the (presumably less liberal) Presidential candidate.
GOLGO 13
(1,681 posts)don't we all?
big_dog
(4,144 posts)but shes running in Texas, my guess it will be O'Malley
TBF
(32,056 posts)they won't put 2 women on the ticket.
roseBudd
(8,718 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)But as a Senior Senator Warren has the ability to push real policy changes.
But as a VP candidate Warren will really excite the base to come out and vote.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)its a no lose situaiton