2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Path to the Democrats Holding the Senate
Win New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska and Kansas.
Lose Iowa and Colorado.
That makes it 49-49.
Then fight like hell to win one runoff, Louisiana or Georgia.
See this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html
Skink
(10,122 posts)But why not make then own it?
Go on record as stupid.
femmocrat
(28,394 posts)I think it will be NH, NC, and KS tomorrow. Alaska to follow.
Then LA in the runoffs. Landrieu has won those tight ones before.
GA -- I hope Nunn can win the runoff, but it's uphill.
If Braley is really tied with Ernst, maybe... hopefully... IA. Too bad Harkin took the focus off Braley at the end. He's probably kicking himself today. I cannot believe that Iowans would give Harkin's seat to that awful woman.
CO would be the cherry on the sundae!
mwooldri
(10,303 posts)Is the turtle expected to live on?
...at this point Grimes has no chance, unfortunately.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html
demwing
(16,916 posts)Even if the odds are a million to one against you, you still have that 1 chance....
tgards79
(1,415 posts)Probably about 10%...
demwing
(16,916 posts)Add Iowa and Colorado back in and you're at 50.
The run offs are then icing, and Kansas is the cherry on top
tgards79
(1,415 posts)...with the Dems if they are the majority. But will he if it takes him to BE the majority.
Iowa and Colorado are still plausible, particularly Colorado, if the polls have truly been under representing Hispanics. Iowa, only if the good citizens wake up to the craziness of Joni Ernst.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html
demwing
(16,916 posts)Orman bills himself as someone who is socially liberal, fiscally conservative, and who thinks the Republican Party became too extreme. He's a Blue Dog Dem running in a state where its easier to say you're an Independent.
If he is faced with a situation where the Republicans have 50 seats and the Dems have 49, there's no way I see him tipping the balance. In fact, a split Senate is exactly what he might want.
Additionally, every savvy politician knows that the Dems are in a far superior position 2 years down the road, and I doubt Orman would burn that bridge before he crosses it.
He'll caucus with the Dems if it creates a tie. I'm 95% positive,
tgards79
(1,415 posts)I had not thought of the 2016 angle. Dead right!