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Sat Apr 18, 2015, 10:46 PM

2016 US Senate Election- Republican favorable map

Solid Republican
AL(Shelby-R)31
AK(Murkowski-R)32
AZ(McCain-R)33
AR(Boozman-R)34
GA(Isakson-R)35
ID(Crapo-R)36
IN(OPEN-R)37
IA(Grassley-R)38
KS(Moran-R)39
KY(OPEN-R)40
LA(OPEN-R)41
ND(Hoeven-R)42
OK(Lankford-R)43
SC(Scott-R)44
SD(Thune-R)45
UT(Lee-R)46
Solid Democratic
CT(Blumenthal-D)36
HI(Schatz-D)37
MD(Van Hollen-D or Edwards-D)38
NY(Schumer-D)39
OR(Wyden-D)40
VT(Leahy-D)41
Likely Republican
MO(Blunt-R)47
NC(Burr-R)48
Likely Democratic
CA(Harris-D)42
NJ(Pallone-D or Holt-D)43
WA(Murray-D)44
Lean Republican
NV(If Sandoval-R runs) 49
NH(Ayotte-R vs Kuster-D) 50
PA(Toomey-R)51
Lean Democratic
CO(Bennet-D)45
Tossup Republican
FL(if Grayson-D is Democratic nominee)52
Tossup Democratic
IL(Duckworth-D)46
OH(Strickland-D)47
WI(If Kind-D is the Democratic nominee)48

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sat Apr 18, 2015, 11:09 PM

1. 2016 US Senate Election-Democratic favorable map

Solid Republican
AL(Shelby-R)31
AK(Murkowski-R)32
AZ(McCain-R)33
AR(Boozman-R)34
GA(Isakson-R)35
ID(Crapo-R)36
IN(OPEN-R)37
IA(Grassley-R)38
KS(Moran-R)39
KY(OPEN-R)40
LA(OPEN-R)41
ND(Hoeven-R)42
OK(Lankford-R)43
SC(Scott-R)44
SD(Thune-R)45
UT(Lee-R)46
Solid Democratic
CT(Blumenthal-D)36
HI(Schatz-D)37
MD(Van Hollen-D or Edwards-D)38
NY(Schumer-D)39
OR(Wyden-D)40
VT(Leahy-D)41
Likely Republican
MO(Blunt-R)47
NC(Burr-R)48
Likely Democratic
CA(Harris-D)42
NJ(Pallone-D or Holt-D)43
WA(Murray-D)44
Lean Republican
PA(Toomey-R)49
Lean Democratic
CO(Bennet-D)45
NV(If Sandoval-R does not run)46
WI(If Feingold-D runs)47
Tossup Democratic
FL(Murphy-D)48
IL(Duckworth-D)49
NH(If Hassan-D runs )50
OH(Strickland-D) 51

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 02:28 AM

2. I can hardly believe that Duckworth (IL) is a toss up.

She rolled 18 on charisma. And recently gave birth to a kid even though her legs were blown off in Iraq. Plus, she is as sharp as a tack.

There is no way Tammy does not win a US Senate seat.

There is no stopping her.

This is a statewide election in IL! Not an 8th congressional district election.

Let me remind people:

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Response to longship (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 11:19 AM

4. Tammy Duckworth is going to win the 2016 Illinois US Senate race but the question is how much is she

going to win by?

narrow margin or high single digit margin.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #4)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 12:18 PM

6. It's 50-50 in IL. Kirk probably gets the sympathy vote. If Obama couldn't pull the last guy over the

 

line I doubt Hillary can do anything for Duckworth here.

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Response to craigmatic (Reply #6)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 12:46 PM

7. The last two IL US Senate Races took place in 2010 and 2014- midterm election years.

2010 was Obama's first midterm election, open seat to replace Obama/Burris. Kirk-R narrowly defeated Giannoulias-D
2014 was Obama's second midterm election, Durbin-D was running for a fourth term-defeated Oberweis by a 10 percent margin.
Unlike 2010,2016 is a Presidential Election year and Hillary Clinton and Tammy Duckworth will be on the ballot the same time. The voters that stay home in midterm election years but vote in Presidential election years will vote for Hillary Clinton for President and Tammy Duckworth for US Senate.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Reply #7)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 02:16 PM

8. OK we'll see but I still think it'll be a slog.

 

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Response to craigmatic (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 21, 2015, 08:14 PM

9. 2010 was sort of a mess

The Blago scandal over the IL Senate seat seemed to irrevocably taint the Democratic placeholder and subsequent Democratic Senate candidate. And it was a midterm election in a year where the "Tea Party" was, inexplicably, the most powerful force in politics and the Democratic vote was depressed or non-existent. Hopefully, we can do much better in 2016.

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 04:47 AM

3. Remember that polls don't mean much this FAR out.

 

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2015, 11:36 AM

5. 2016 US Senate Election Democrats guide to a majority with CO and NV and without CO and NV

With CO and NV
WI-Feingold-D
OH-Strickland-D
IL-Duckworth-D
FL-Murphy-D
Without CO and NV
WI-Feingold-D
OH-Strickland-D
IL-Duckworth-D
FL-Murphy-D
NH-Hassan-D
PA-Sestak-D

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Response to NPolitics1979 (Original post)

Sun Apr 26, 2015, 08:02 AM

10. If the TPP passes with Wyden's name on it I have to wonder if he'll be in trouble

I have supported him for 18 years in the Senate, but am not happy about his involvement in the TPP.

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