How Dead Voters Could Determine the 2016 Election

Ask a political pundit about the demographics of the U.S.’s major parties and most would admit that the Republicans are an aging bunch. However, fewer talk about how the natural progression of aging is dying. It’s no liberal conspiracy: Republicans are dying and it’s starting to look like it will significantly impair the GOP’s chances of winning a presidential election anytime soon.

Politico reporter Daniel McGraw decided to crunch the numbers using existing voter information and life expectancy figures. McGraw’s data suggests that 2.75 million voters for Mitt Romney in 2012 will be dead by the next presidential election. By comparison, only 2.3 million Barack Obama voters will be dead. That’s a net loss of nearly half a million voters for the Republican Party.

As old voters die, new voters come of age. Unfortunately for the GOP, new voters are not registering as Republicans at equivalent rates to the dearly departed. New and young voters are almost twice as likely to identify as liberal, meaning that the Democratic Party is gaining more ground in the presidential election with each passing year. The circle of life is not favorable for conservative politics."

*Although the Republican Party is not likely to die off along with its voters thanks to its stronghold on dozens of solidly red states, this overall nationwide trend is going to make a conservative presidential run increasingly difficult – at least without making some serious changes."

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