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Wed May 20, 2015, 12:15 PM

How Dead Voters Could Determine the 2016 Election

Ask a political pundit about the demographics of the U.S.ís major parties and most would admit that the Republicans are an aging bunch. However, fewer talk about how the natural progression of aging is dying. Itís no liberal conspiracy: Republicans are dying and itís starting to look like it will significantly impair the GOPís chances of winning a presidential election anytime soon.

Politico reporter Daniel McGraw decided to crunch the numbers using existing voter information and life expectancy figures. McGrawís data suggests that 2.75 million voters for Mitt Romney in 2012 will be dead by the next presidential election. By comparison, only 2.3 million Barack Obama voters will be dead. Thatís a net loss of nearly half a million voters for the Republican Party.

As old voters die, new voters come of age. Unfortunately for the GOP, new voters are not registering as Republicans at equivalent rates to the dearly departed. New and young voters are almost twice as likely to identify as liberal, meaning that the Democratic Party is gaining more ground in the presidential election with each passing year. The circle of life is not favorable for conservative politics."

*Although the Republican Party is not likely to die off along with its voters thanks to its stronghold on dozens of solidly red states, this overall nationwide trend is going to make a conservative presidential run increasingly difficult Ė at least without making some serious changes."

http://www.care2.com/causes/how-dead-voters-could-determine-the-2016-election.html

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Reply How Dead Voters Could Determine the 2016 Election (Original post)
damnedifIknow May 2015 OP
yellowcanine May 2015 #1
damnedifIknow May 2015 #2
davidpdx May 2015 #3
WhoWoodaKnew May 2015 #4

Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2015, 01:31 PM

1. You have to factor in that their dead voters are more likely to vote, though.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Wed May 20, 2015, 05:07 PM

2. This is the part I like

"New and young voters are almost twice as likely to identify as liberal, meaning that the Democratic Party is gaining more ground in the presidential election with each passing year. The circle of life is not favorable for conservative politics."


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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Sun May 24, 2015, 05:00 AM

3. That means they have to try to seal twice as many votes

Anyone that thinks they don't have the balls to do it is kidding themselves.

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Response to damnedifIknow (Original post)

Sun May 24, 2015, 08:37 AM

4. I want to know how many voters become conservative as they grow older

I've always wanted to know that. There is a % of people who start out more liberal and, as they grow older, end up more conservative. I don't even know how you could calculate that but it would be interesting to see.

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