if 1in 6 voters in WI today are same day registrants, wouldn't that mean

[rateyes]

that all those preelection polls of registered and likely voters are meaningless?

[WI_DEM]

1. I think it might.

[SoutherDem]

2. If it was of "likely registered voters" then yes,

on those polls they usually start by asking are you a register voter, if the answer is no they are thanked for there time and end the survey. The next question is usually are you likely to go vote, once again if the answer is no, the survey ends.

So the opinion of those most likely have not been included in the polls.

[hrmjustin]

3. Yes it would, but the info is that at democratic precincts there is....

...high amount of new voters. There is no info on gop precincts yet. But cnn says it will be close so yes all those polls were bull.

[HooptieWagon]

4. Yes.

Andthey didnt vote in 2010, and most of them are probably voting for Barrett.

[LiberalFighter]

5. There are different categories

There are brand new voters. Never voted before (at least in Wisconsin) and this is their first time registering in Wisconsin.
There are brand new voters. Never voted before (at least in Wisconsin) and have been registered before in Wisconsin.
There are new voters. Never voted in that community before but have been registered in a different community.
There are voters that have voted before but not in 2010.
There are voters that usually vote Presidential elections.
There are voters that usually vote just general elections.
There are voters that usually vote every election.

Different variations of each of the above. But do not believe that the amount of new registrations has been this high before. At least an election not involving the presidential election.

I've seen voting records where they didn't vote in 2010 but they have been voting in the 2012 primary recall election. That alone should indicate that Walker should have a difficult time winning. Yea!!

[quaker bill]

6. Yup

they can pretty much be flushed.

[HereSince1628]

7. I suppose it depends on exactly how a likely voter was identified.

One of the thing the pre-election polls DID NOT anticipate was the huge turnout.

All the weighting fudge factors are really dubious at this point. .