GOP could blow Arizona

[DesertRat]

A brutal GOP primary is boosting Democrats' chances of taking a Senate seat -- and Obama's chance to win the state.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/22/gop_could_blow_arizona/singleton/

[TexasTowelie]

1. GOP could blow me,

but I won't let them.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. ..........

Thanks for making me ruin my keyboard!

[TexasTowelie]

10. The OP was a setup for a zinger!

I couldn't resist.

I hope that your keyboard dried out.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. Indeed it was!

My keyboard is fine, thanks!

[hrmjustin]

2. might be my friend.

I wonder if all those flds will vote for a mainstream mormon. If not that is not good for him. there are alot of flds in AZ.

[aquart]

3. In Arizona? Don't get too excited.

[DesertRat]

9. I'm not so sure about the presidential race

But I think we have a decent shot at the Senate seat.

[CreekDog]

14. People don't seem to see the value in having them sweat a gimme state

or what should be one.

[HooptieWagon]

4. Probably not, but...

if they have to work and spend for it, it helps Obama elsewhere.

[WI_DEM]

5. given how tight recent polls are in AZ and strong hispanic support, Obama should

go all in and say he is going for it--the way Mitt is doing in Michigan.

[AlinPA]

6. Those 10 EVs would be great, but IMO AZ is still a GOP state when it comes to the presidential race.

[jberryhill]

7. They could blow a lot of things

They have a lot of practice under their belt.

[Jack Sprat]

11. I hope so. n/t

[CobaltBlue]

12. I'd like Arizona to flip!

Last edited Sat Jun 23, 2012, 01:57 PM - Edit history (1)

In order to win Arizona, the Democrats have to cut into Republican Maricopa County's margin and catapult a landslide victory in Pima County. Phoenix is the county seat in the former, and the city votes Democratic (while the county votes GOP); Tucson is the county seat in the latter (which is usually in the Democratic column), but its margins have recently been no greater than 15 points. (In lots of heavily populous Democratic counties, they're typically carried by more than 20 points, and others tend to get carriage of 2-to-1 margins. (In 2008, Barack Obama won many closer to 3-to-1 margins.)

I am hoping—if it turns out President Obama wins re-election—he gets a traditional electoral-vote score (typically it's a gain over the first) and Ariz. flips into his 2012 column. Any state won by John McCain, from the last election, in which Mitt Romney fails to carry means he's not going to unseat the president.

[former9thward]

15. I have not seen a single ad for the Democratic Senate candidate (Richard Camona).

I have not seen a single yard sign or street sign. I have gotten a few emails from the state party but that is about it.

[Individualism]

16. they blew their on state convention there

[Rosanna Lopez]

17. Building for the future?

Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 86% chance of winning Arizona. I just don't see it voting for Obama this year. In a better year for Democrats I could see it being possible (like it was for Bill Clinton in 1996), but I think it will be at least 2016 before it happens.

Still, even if one doesn't win a state it's important to build for down the road for the next Democratic Nominee. Ground work now could be beneficial later. It's the same as the situation in Texas. The majority of Latinos in Texas would vote Democratic, but the DNC has not made an effort to register them all and mobilize the vote. It's a missed opportunity. Texas could be winnable for the Democrats at some point in another decade if work was put into it.

[CobaltBlue]

18. You're right about Texas! And even beyond that I must say...

Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 86% chance of winning Arizona. I just don't see it voting for Obama this year. In a better year for Democrats I could see it being possible (like it was for Bill Clinton in 1996), but I think it will be at least 2016 before it happens.

I followed FiveThirtyEight.com and Nate Silver in 2008. It was around this time of year he gave Barack Obama just a 27-percent chance of flipping Florida. Never mind that Fla. routinely votes with the winner (all elections, except 1960 and 1992, dating back to 1928).

Still, even if one doesn't win a state it's important to build for down the road for the next Democratic Nominee. Ground work now could be beneficial later. It's the same as the situation in Texas. The majority of Latinos in Texas would vote Democratic, but the DNC has not made an effort to register them all and mobilize the vote. It's a missed opportunity. Texas could be winnable for the Democrats at some point in another decade if work was put into it.

Obama received 48% of the female vote in 2008 Texas. He could at least be winning over females (who vote Democratic before Republican; males do the opposite). I think the two major parties have an agreement, behind closed doors, that goes like this: These are your party's states. These are my party's states. We'll let the non-partisan swing states swing our elections. Screw campaigning throughout the nation! Too expensive. Too time-consuming. They're not worth trying to win a 400-vote Electoral College landslide anymore!"