"Aggregated Daily Kos Polling Shows Obama & Romney Tied In Texas. No, Really."

[applegrove]

Aggregated Daily Kos Polling Shows Obama & Romney Tied In Texas, No Really

by dreaminonempty at Daily Kos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/06/1106135/-Daily-Kos-SEIU-PPP-Polling-Shows-Obama-and-Romney-Tied-in-Texas-No-really

"SNIP...........................................

Over the period of April 12 - July 1, 662 respondents to the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP State of the Nation poll were reached at a Texas phone number. Among these respondents, Obama and Romney were tied 47-47. (Please note that this is an aggregation of interviews from the weekly poll, not a stand-alone poll.)

Seriously?? Yes, but it's highly unlikely to hold up until election day, for reasons discussed below, and it's more favorable to Obama than other polls.

The two stand-alone polls from the same time period also show a relatively tight margin among registered voters. Texas is a Tossup at least by New York Times standards, based on this result and the two other polls with Romney +7 and Romney +8, for an average of Romney +5. (New York Times lists CO, NV, and PA as Tossups, with a polling average of Obama +5 or more.)

Of course, this is a poll of registered voters. Typically, the demographics shift towards Republican voters by a few points among actual voters in Texas.

............................................SNIP"

[Ishoutandscream2]

1. Be still my heart, but nahhhhhhh

As much as I want to believe we have a shot, I can't see it now. Give us a few more years.

[TheWraith]

2. Granted that DKos uses a Democratic pollster. However...

This isn't quite as surprising to me as it might seem. "Traditional" white "Christian" Texans might not be willing to vote for the black guy, but the Mormon isn't exactly going to be setting them on fire either. Romney will be viewed in Texas as weak, elitist, dishonest, and a member of a cult. In TX, that's almost as bad as being black.

Not that I'm saying Texas won't vote for Romney, but it's likely to be reluctant at best. And the margin will probably be thinner if it looks like Romney will lose in a blowout. More of the right-wing base will feel free to stay home and ignore the race, afterwards saying honestly that they didn't vote for either of them.

[glowing]

3. Most non-teaparty morons... Regular indies

And those who pay attention a little bit if FL basically feel it's either all bought or that they have no choice and have to vote for Obama because the rich guy is ridiculous.

[Tx4obama]

4. In 2008 over 3.5 MILLION Texans voted for Obama. I think there will be more in 2012 :)

In my opinion Texas is now more PURPLE than it is red

[applegrove]

5. I'm with you. After all Texas wasn't alway Republican.

[ForgoTheConsequence]

6. It could be close.

But the Texas GOP machine wont let it happen.

[bluestateguy]

7. Romney wins Texas by 10%

which would be an improvement, even over 2008.

That would position us to make a real run for Texas in 2016, IF someone like Brian Schweitzer were to be the nominee.

[Marzupialis]

8. What kind of sample is the one that's 47-47?

Is it a sample which may include legal and illegal immigrants who cannot vote?

[pwhtckll]

9. As much as I'd like to see it...

As much as I'd like to see Obama win Texas (and every other state, and the United States), I'll eat my hat if he does. Nate Sliver and the other statisticians at the FiveThirtyEight Blog (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/) give Mitt Romney a 98.3% change of winning Texas by a projected vote of 57% to 42%