Predict the margin of victory for Obama/Romney

[Marzupialis]

Who do you think will win the November presidential elections and by what margin?

[democrat_patriot]

1. It's July. Ask in late October.

We had a good few days - let's not get ahead of ourselves...

[JoePhilly]

2. Obama wins by about 5-6%, with more than 300 EC votes.

[JoePhilly]

12. Romney's implosion is going to make me revise this UPWARDS for Obama

[HopeHoops]

3. Obama by 10pts.

[Stuckinthebush]

4. He will have 300 electoral votes

Margins don't matter - just the electoral votes.

[backscatter712]

5. My bet is 55%-45% for the popular vote.

Rmoney's behind the 8-ball at this point.

[trayfoot]

6. 52-48 Obama!

[WI_DEM]

7. It's too early.

[Marzupialis]

8. Either Obama by 2% or Romney by 2%

Or something between that range.

[grantcart]

9. Electoral college landslide.

[progressivebydesign]

10. too soon. n/t

[DFW]

11. Close, but not a nail-biter

Probably Obama 51.8 to Romney 48.5 with the rest going to third parties, lower turnout than in 2008.

Voter disenfranchisement in full swing, but Obama wins 290-300 EV nonetheless.

Some possible fallout:

Sheldon Adelson wants his money back, doesn't get it, forgets how much it was anyway, since he never missed it. Karl Rove moves to Dubai with Dick Cheney so they can both spend more time with their family (aka Halliburton). With an interest-free loan from Adelson, Romney buys southern New Hampshire and declares it a tax-free zone. Herman Cain loses his show when he forgets what channel he's on. Rick Perry loses the governorship of Texas when he forgets what city is the capital of Texas. Scott Walker disappears over the Canadian border permanently when he hears the Kochs are under investigation, and will not donate one more cent to him. Ditto for Rick Scott, except that he opts for Costa Rica.

[fujiyama]

13. I'm thinking 3-5 point margin of victory

I'm guessing 51-48, with maybe 1% for third party candidates...

Electorally, I still see around 290-300. It will be closer than last time, but unless turn out mobilization is really poor, or voter disenfranchisement is so rampant, I don't see how he loses more than 2-4 states he won last time (the three possible losses being IN, NC, FL, and maybe IA).