"Is Romney Overreacting to Bain Attacks?" - long but interesting read - by Nate Silver

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/is-romney-overreacting-to-bain-attacks/#more-32185

"Mitt Romney’s campaign has begun to push back against the notion that President Obama’s critiques on his tenure at Bain Capital have damaged him. A memo released by Mr. Romney’s pollster, Neil Newhouse, suggests that the margin between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama has been narrowing rather than widening in the polls despite the attacks.

I would take issue with the notion that the race has been tightening. Instead, once you remove the statistical noise from the polls, the trajectory looks roughly flat based on our analysis. Mr. Obama has maintained a narrow, but fairly consistent, lead of about 2 points over perhaps the last six to eight weeks.

But Mr. Obama’s lead has also not been widening — and I think Mr. Newhouse is correct that the evidence for the impact of the Bain attacks is rather thin, or at least has been up to this point.

At the same time, Mr. Romney’s campaign has begun to behave as though the attacks are a fairly big deal. And it has backed into a more defensive posture that could change the nature of how they are perceived by the public going forward."

snip


much, much more - kind of wonkish, but worth reading....lots of detail/speculation just for consideration.

[bigdarryl]

1. Polling this early in the summer don't mean shit Nate

most people are on vacation and enjoying the summer wait until the debates and the Conventions the President has the advantage because his Convention is last Romney will get a bump after his Convention because he gets to go first but it doesn't matter it will be short lived