Poll: North Carolina still close--Romney leads Obama by 1-point

[WI_DEM]

A new poll of North Carolina voters from the Republican-leaning Civitas Institute shows that half of likely voters in the crucial swing state of North Carolina have an unfavorable view of President Obama. But despite this, Mitt Romney clings only to a 1-point lead over his Democratic rival in the survey, released Friday, showing the Tar Heel state very much in play.

Romney was the choice of 49 percent of likely voters — his best showing in the poll since last September, when 50 percent of those surveyed backed the likely Republican nominee. But Obama, despite a net-negative favorability rating, still garnered 48 percent of likely voters.

Of those surveyed, 50 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of the president, versus 47 percent who saw the president in a positive light. That's a reversal from a May version of the poll, where Obama pulled a 50 percent favorability rating, with 48 percent opposed to his handling of the job.


Romney, meanwhile, has climbed to a 50 percent favorability rating, with 44 percent saying they do not care for the likely Republican nominee. Support is more solidified for Obama — voters are more likely to have "very" favorable or unfavorable opinions

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/239243-poll-half-of-nc-likely-voters-have-unfavorable-opinion-of-obama

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Slight movement toward Obama, as he was down 47-45 in their last poll.

[eliminerlesud]

2. BFD, NC nor ANY state in the south is needed for a Democrat to win a national election

due to our electoral systrem all Dems have to do is keep the races in the south close so that the Pubs have to spend considerable resources to defend what to them is sure votes.

[CobaltBlue]

3. Little sense

In 2008, Barack Obama flipped the state of North Carolina and won it over John McCain by D+0.33.

If Mitt Romney unseats Obama, he should be flipping N.C. and carry it by a margin in high single digits, perhaps 10 points.


I've been finding a lot of inconsistencies in the translation of these polls and, supposedly, whether Obama wins re-election or becomes unseated by Romney.

Obama is underperforming his 2008 margins, yet Romney isn't overperforming dramatically the McCain margins. I think, given we are still in July, people aren't terribly focused on the 2012 presidential election. And that would help to explain why a lot of things do not make sense.