Crystal Ball predicts a 1% popular vote victory for Barack Obama

[Marzupialis]

15 days ago, the Crystal Ball (prediction website owned by Larry Sabato) estimated Obama's popular vote depending on what the GDP growth announced today would be.

The results are in and GDP grew 1.5%; therefore, Obama will win the popular vote according to the Crystal Ball:



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/abramowitzpolarizationmodel/

[russspeakeasy]

1. She was smarter before she joined "the cycle" or whatever

the hell they call it.

[demwing]

4. but...you do know...

aw , never mind

[swayne]

2. Obama win beat Romney by a bigger margin than he beat McCain.

Count on it.

[Cali_Democrat]

5. I'm not sure about the popular vote, but it's possible with the electoral vote

Romney is really struggling in the swing states.

[bigdarryl]

3. This prediction is UTTER BULLSHIT!!

The economy isn't the only predictor of Presidential elections

[Marzupialis]

8. Well, Obama's lead is 1.6% in the average of all polls

According to RealClearPolitics average. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

That's not far at all from the Crystal Ball's 1% prediction. Maybe "BS" is a bit too harsh of an adjective for the 1% prediction.

[DCBob]

6. Incredibly simplistic amateurish prediction method.

She must have gotten her "crystal ball" from Walmart.

[DFW]

7. We're leading in every battleground state except NC. This will not last.

But we should take enough of them to have a comfortable margin of victory.