2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI watched Morning Joe (don't hate) & came away laughing...
I know it's their job to push the 'this election is tied' narrative. I get that. No one in the media wants an election that is going one way or another - even if by a small margin.
The fact is, though, this race is not tied. The only way this race would be considered a tie is if both candidates were not only tied in national polls (they're not), but also state polls (they're not). You can call it close, narrow, a horse race, whatever - but don't lie to us and say it's tied. It's not tied.
But ignoring that, our friend Mark Halperin was doing his best spinning this morning. He mentioned how awful Romney's trip was, but that we have a very important jobs report coming up this Friday that the Romney campaign is chomping at the bit to go over.
I take offense to that on two fronts. The first is that it really shows Romney's campaign is cheering for bad economic news. They would love nothing more than for millions of Americans to lose their jobs between now and the election. Anything to win, right?
But beyond just the heartlessness of the argument, I find it hilarious the media is still obsessed with these job reports. For the last seven or so months, we've been told, like clock work, the election very well could hinge on the upcoming jobs report. We heard it in June, May, April, March, February and January - all the way back through 2011.
And now we're hearing it as we gear up for another one.
The reality? As much as the media likes to say another bad jobs report could sink Obama, it just isn't happening. Obama's numbers aren't dramatically moving, even with average job reports. They keep telling us that this next report, if it's bad, is exactly what the Romney campaign wants and then it's released, there is a lot of gnashing of the teeth (HOW WILL THIS IMPACT OBAMA) and, a few weeks later, Obama still leads in the polls.
Then they're left asking WHY he's leading, or they just outright misinterpret the data to suggest the race is a tie. When we close in on the first of the month, we're back to square one: Will THIS be the jobs report that kills Obama's reelection?
It must be frustrating for them to watch every prediction they make fall flat.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)BO, by any reasonable sense, should be polling close to 10 points ahead of Romney nationally - 55ish to 45ish. But, because they do their jobs so well, they have managed to keep BO under 50 for the most part, and make it close enough for Romney to steal with some kind of October disaster.
Make no mistake, your point is taken.
If this was flipped, and it was an R in the White House with the same economic numbers, the D would be painted as hating america because he or she wanted to see bad economic news.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Obama is defying the odds. Most candidates with this economic climate would be dead in the water. Obama is one of those rare presidents who can overcome tepid growth and high unemployment - someone like FDR (in a sense). But just look at how badly Carter in '80 and Bush in '92 were doing to get a sense of what it could be like.
This race should not be a blowout, based on GDP, unemployment and other issues. But it also shouldn't be one Obama is leading nationally.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)Bush II was the worst president in our history, lied us into the Iraq debacle and had a stagnate economy about to go over the cliff and won reelection.
It isn't like it is the great depression out there.
People lost SECOND homes and investment properties, not their entire lives.
There are no breadlines and hoovervilles.
If this was an R president, he/she would be HAILED for SAVING the economy and country, there is no doubt, not .0001 percent of that.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I think Obama is defying all the odds just by winning.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)he has been great on foreign policy and improved the economy.
if he was a republican the media would have him hailed as great as Reagen (who was not even close to great, but they get to define him that way) and they would have this race framed COMPLETELY the opposite, that the D was a longshot who had to do everything right to have a chance to win.
It just is surreal - he got the first major HCR passed in over four decades and somehow it got turned into what the Patriot Act SHOULD have been ...
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)I think the panel is getting a bit squirrely. They're talking gibberish.
I wished I liked Current TV set up better. Ilove the people on their shows but it just isn't that interesting watching people in a studio talking into a mike.
Some of the guests are interesting on MJ. Today they had a young woman who had written a novel based on all the sleeping around that happens on campaigns. Love that stuff...went to the library to get put on the list to check it out!
Thank goddess for the public library in the dog days of summer!
monmouth
(21,078 posts)out of pebbles and sand. I'm glad the warned that Senor would be on I think, Friday. Forewarned is good.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)That's how I keep away from the assholes they have on. I hate to miss the good guests. Lately they've had Howard Dean on a bit more and I like him. I love it when they have Elizabeth Warren on, too. You can tell she gets on Joe's nerves and that's always worth watching!
by the way, Senor is on tomorrow...
BeyondGeography
(39,370 posts)which is the Republican Party has completely gone off the rails.
When every candidate, including the nominee, says no to a 10:1 deal on spending cuts v. taxes, and basic programs that are supported by almost all Americans are called socialism, the narrative is clear. Add Obama's likability and the Mittbot's huge interpersonal issues and the truth is staring you in the face.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)But I can't stand Joe, and Mark Halprin is even worse. I last maybe a total of 10 minutes, then I have to turn the channel. The thing is those who buy into their BS weren't going to ever vote for Obama anyway, and it's pretty obvious that all Romney has to hang on these days are bad jobs numbers, and like you said Obama isn't being hurt by the numbers, and that goes to prove just how terrible of a candidate Romney really is. Heck his own party has been trashing him for not releasing more taxes, for his screw ups on his overseas trip, and for being a wimp!
Romney is not going to get any better as time goes on, in fact he will get worse. His numbers are not going to go up, only down, and the more people really get to know about him, and that's not very much, they less they like him, and as someone else pointed out in another thread, many people just won't vote for someone they don't like.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)Morning Joe is like an 80s afterschool special about an abusive father, as Joe menaces over everyone and they all do what they can to keep from having him slam their heads off the table ...
Seriously - you can see it, it is palpable that beyond their being afraid of losing a cushy check, they are really scared of him.
I WANT to watch it because I want to support MSNBC, but like you, I make 10 minutes before my gut wretches.
kitt6
(516 posts)morning Joe. same people. same same same......
lame54
(35,287 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)I know of a 'Dick' Halperin but can't remember Mark.