2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton's slide continues. Morning Consult's 7/17-7/20 national poll Clinton 52;
Last edited Tue Sep 29, 2015, 10:07 PM - Edit history (2)
Sanders 16; Biden 118/4-8/16 poll: Clinton 50; Sanders 24
Their most recent poll -- with Clinton at 44, Sanders 23 and Biden 19 -- shows that Clinton's trajectory continues downward, with Biden picking up most of her losses. Sander's 1 pt drop is within moe, so essentially unchanged.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)in previous polls. Biden's numbers come at Hillary's expense. Biden is not in the race so add Biden to Hillary and she is at 63%.
What the poll shows is that Sanders has peaked.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)and Clinton still leads him by 21 points. Plus Bernie leads a guy who hasn't even decided to run by only 4 points.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)national poll and many of the matchup polls.
Name recognition matters. Including Biden in every poll makes it look as though he is running. Also the constant tease of "will he or won't he" and virtual public endorsement and encouragement by his current boss.
In the meantime, Clinton's slide continues. I found additional Morning Consult polls on the Huffpost site: she seems to drop a point each week. They had her at 60 in mid-July. Drop...drop...drop...
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)Latest poll shows she has a 73% approval and only 20% with Democrats.
Drop..drop..drop that Bernie boy
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Now, as noted, her image has begun to improve. We rely on two-week rolling averages to provide large sample sizes and stable estimates when trending the candidates' images, but a look at just the last seven days through Sept. 27 shows that her net favorable image among Democrats is at +57, suggesting a clear upward trajectory.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/185939/hillary-clinton-image-improves-among-democrats.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=heading&utm_campaign=syndication
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Reallocating Biden's support
HRC-57%
SBS -28%
That's not a horrible place to be.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)If Biden is not appearing in the debates on October 13th, and the deadline is the following day - the Biden voters, having listened to both Clinton and Sanders will break 3:1 to Sanders, not Clinton. It also ends her "inevitability" because by then, the polls will not yield a lead again for Clinton.
After the second debates, when it is confirmed that Clinton is not the correct choice for President, her superdelegates will break also.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Your hypothesis is not supported by the facts...The available data suggests that Hillary Clinton is the second choice of nearly three of four Biden voters. I am sure if you have data that contradicts my assertions you will post it, am I right?
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)So they really don't differentiate from each other.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If you add up her and his supporters it comes out to approximately 2/3 of Democratic voters. Biden and Clinton are Obama Light or Obama Plus or Obama 2.0 or Obama 3.0.
Why would voters who like the policies of Clinton, Biden, and Obama embrace a candidate who rejects them?
Look at it as buying a car.
Someone who is in the market for a Camry, an Accord, an Altima, a Malibu isn't going to end up buying a Mini Cooper.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)Democratic voters alone is not going to be enough for Clinton win in the GE. That's all she is going to get.
Bernie, on the other hand, gets the Independents (the largest voter bloc at 43%), Democrats and some sane Republicans in the GE and that alone makes him a winner in my eyes.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are 46% of the electorate. Republicans and Republican leaning independents are 41% of the electorate. That is from Gallup...
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)But also consider this: The Democratic-leaning independents left that party because it wasn't representative of their ideals. I heard about 10% of the Democratic voters from 2014 dropped their party identity, going independent.
Do you have a recent polls on how voters identify themselves these days - the Gallup poll was from Jan 7th of 2015.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I am sure there is some variability but the variability is small... The larger point, imho, is that the number of true independents are small and most independents lean one way or another.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)But for tonight, I must call it a night.
See you in the morning.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)He is using the "because I said so" form of documentation.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)But if Biden and Clinton are essentially policy clones it stands to reason that their supporters would be drawn from the same reservoir of voters. Why would they vote for someone who rejects the policies they embrace?
That seems like a fair question.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)I have the same feeling for Hillary or Joe. Both are really good candidates. I just prefer Hillary as a candidate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)No matter how you cut it Joe and Hillary represent over two out of every three Democratic primary voters, and their policies are virtually identical.
Even in the unlikely event he announces and then surpasses Hillary they will still have two out of three Democratic primary voters...
We are getting wayyyyyyyyyyy ahead of ourselves but if Sanders, Clinton, and Biden end up with 1/3 of the delegates each the delegates would be released from their pledges to vote for the candidate of their choice in the second round of voting. Since Hillary and Biden are each other's second choice one of them will be the nominee.
But we aren't going to get that far...
oasis
(49,393 posts)while your psychic powers are still going strong.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)oasis
(49,393 posts)Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)Her remaining lead, after the debates, will all disappear due to Clinton's inability to answer tough questions. Anderson Cooper is no fool..
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The woman is absolutely brilliant, quick on her feet, and unflappable.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)Such as TPP, Keystone, fracking, income inequality, equality, racial justice and more.
Clinton better get hopping to practice. She'll need two weeks of "alone time" to prepare herself.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That was the consensus from her 00 and 08 debates.
MindfulOne
(227 posts)saturnsring
(1,832 posts)clinging to these polls that include people who arent running smells like desperation. the gop thanks you for your demorlization effort
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)"They" have to include Biden as to maintain the illusion of a horse race. All the available data suggests that for every vote he takes from Senator Sanders he takes three to four from Secretary Clinton.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)He's not ready to take on the difficult task of running for President and has literally no organization, even those "Ready for Biden" folks are going to be disappointed.
Biden's behavior mirrors Elizabeth Warren's behavior in regards to deciding if he's running. He's not emotionally ready to take on the task, therefore, he is not running, having stated so a few times.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I am not going to criticize the vice president. But out of respect to the other candidates he should announce his intentions.
Gun to my head, I say he doesn't run.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)I am subscribing to a theory (you might even call it conspiracy theory) that Clinton or the DNC ordered the polls to add Biden to try to stave off Bernie's stratospheric rise. Even you have to admit that Bernie has remarkably made himself presentable and should be considered as a candidate.
I hope that you have a open mind and heart (along with your gut) and willing to listen to the debates on October 13th that should clearly delineate Sanders from Clinton as a stark contrast.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Joe has suffered great tragedies so you have to be callous not to empathize with him...But he knows exactly what he is doing with his "Will I , won't I, waiting game." If not for the tragedies there would be a lot more criticism of his tactics.
He's the sitting vice president. Any other vice president would have announced by now if he was going to run. He will not run unless Hillary totally collapses. That's his waiting game.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)I know exactly the emotions that VP Biden is going through.
I know he's still hurting. He lost his wife, his daughter, his son and has only one son left, and the rest is extended family.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)So I am no stranger to tragedy...But good ole Joe is no babe in the woods...He knows precisely what he's doing, giving a hint there, a hint here, and calling potential bundlers.
He will announce if he thinks Hillary is vulnerable and only then.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)Hope your mom is well-taken care of and loved. I moved in with my family to be with her after she lost her partner of over 47 years.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)She was a below the knee amputee for the last twelve years of her life, those were the years I took care of her.
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)and hopefully enjoying family
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)When our mother got sick my sister moved in with her. She cared for mom for nearly 3 years. She lost nearly everything. It cost her a marriage and a really good job. It's been 4 years since our mom passed and she still has not rebounded and at her age probably never will.
There is a special place in my heart and in heaven for a caregiver. What a special lady your mother had to be to raise someone like you.
Faux pas
(14,682 posts)WheelWalker
(8,955 posts)FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)Wonder how long we have to put up with the Biden in these polls. Either get in or say so . This cat and mouse is child's play.
WheelWalker
(8,955 posts)The board is set... the pieces are moving - but what is the game?
Be concerned. Be very concerned.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I empathize with Joe. He has suffered a lot... I speak from experience. My dad died when I was fourteen. My paternal grandfather died when my mom was nine so she grew up without ever knowing or having a dad. My mom had her leg amputated because of medical malpractice and I had to take care of her for the last twelve years of her life.
That being said Joe is every bit the politician Hillary is and knows exactly what he is doing with his waiting game.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)That is why her numbers changed.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)and the July 17-20 morning consult poll was CLinton 52, Sanders 16 and Biden 13.
I couldn't find any morning consult polls prior to that one. Maybe you'll have better luck.
Edited to add I found one poll that leaves Biden out: 8/14-16, Clinton 50; Sanders 24. He was in their 2 prior polls.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)It is the one directly above the Morning Consult poll that doesn't include Biden on Pollster.
So you're going all the way back to 7/20 to make any kind of comparison. And Sanders had increased from 16 to mid 20s in that time frame, so no surprise there.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)too many polls jammed into too small a space!
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Remarkably easy to do, actually.
Response to Godhumor (Reply #54)
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Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The one poll he thought was Morning Consult wasn't, but it was the next one in line.
So, yeah, the premise in the OP is pretty flawed to start with, but it was an honest oops in identifying the poll.
And between this, the no one polled under 50 kerfuffle and the four Hispanics in a sample are enough silliness, I think there is enough polling issues to go around.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-sharp-erosion-in-clinton-support-among-democratic-women/2015/09/14/6406e2a0-58c3-11e5-b8c9-944725fcd3b9_story.html
COLUMBUS, Ohio Hillary Rodham Clinton is suffering a rapid erosion of support among Democratic women the voters long presumed to be the bedrock in her bid to become the nations first female president.
The numbers in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll are an alarm siren: Where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning female voters said in July that they expected to vote for Clinton, only 42 percent do now, a drop of 29 percentage points in eight weeks.
<snip>
Snap the Turtle
(73 posts)29% drop is significant. What's also significant is that 2/3 of Americans doesn't trust Clinton either.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)His number didn't move.
That pins a lot of hope on the NBC poll not being an outlier.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Response to magical thyme (Original post)
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magical thyme
(14,881 posts)4 days here and you're ordering everybody around. where'd you come from? "correct the record?" superpac attack dogs?
I'll correct it because I made a mistake. But your attitude is pretty offensive.
"Deleting the thread is recommended as well."
Recommended by whom? You? Who are you to be telling anybody what to do?
Oh, and welcome to DU.
Response to magical thyme (Reply #58)
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Response to magical thyme (Reply #58)
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away
Response to MoveIt (Reply #62)
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